Scientists have scrapped the worst-case climate scenario – because action is making a difference

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 27, 2026 · 922 words · By Andrew King

Political Polarization of Science Climate Change Scenarios Scientific Modeling

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What to know about Political Polarization of Science

The article discusses the release of new climate change scenarios and the removal of the extreme high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario. The author argues that this removal reflects the positive impact of climate action, while noting that the most optimistic scenarios are also no longer plausible.

Propaganda risk 40%

Claims checked 12

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

3 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

When major new climate change scenarios are released, there’s always strong interest.

Why it matters

These scenarios lay out what our future climate will look like, depending on how fast we act to cut emissions.

Common ground

But what was surprising about the seven new scenarios announced last week was that United States President Donald Trump took an interest.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Name Calling / Labeling: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Polarization of Science story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that The two previous releases included two closely related scenarios – RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively?
How does this story connect Political Polarization of Science with Climate Change Scenarios over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/scientists-have-scrapped-the-worst-case-climate-scen…

analyticsAnalysis

40%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Moderate concerns. Notable use of persuasive or loaded language.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 90% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Name Calling / Labeling 80% confidence

Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.

Why it matters: Recognizing name calling / labeling helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 6

help Insufficient Evidence 2

schedule Pending 2

verified Verified By Reference 1

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “The two previous releases included two closely related scenarios – RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm that previous releases relied on RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 as the worst-case scenarios.

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web search NEUTRAL — In these worst-case scenarios, the world sharply boosts fossil fuel use. Unsurprisingly, this leads to very high amounts of global warming. Scientists have long argued over whether this was plausible …
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/05/31/scientists-scrap-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Every financial regulator that has built climate stress testing on RCP 8.5 or SSP5-8.5 should formally retract those exercises and disclose the implications for any institution downgraded or restricte…
https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/06/01/wall-street-climate-s…

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web search NEUTRAL — That is the broader story. For the rice paper specifically, the operational fact is this: of the three scenarios the paper hinges on, two have just been killed. The headline ten-to-thirty range comes …
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/06/01/the-rice-catastrophe-…

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Claim 2: “By 2100, carbon dioxide levels would almost triple, to 1,135 parts per million and the world would be around 4.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial period [under RCP8.5]”

CORROBORATED

Web search results explicitly state that RCP8.5 would triple CO2 concentration to 1135 ppm and increase global temperature by 4.5°C.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Permafrost (from perma- 'permanent' and frost) is soil or underwater sediment which continuously remains below 0 °C (32 °F) for two years or more; the oldest permafrost has been continuously frozen …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are climate change scenarios to project future greenhouse gas concentrations. These pathways (or trajectories) describe future greenhouse gas concentrations…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The sea level has been rising since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, which was around 20,000 years ago. Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 3: “The new scenarios have no pathway as optimistic as the lowest emissions scenario from the last round of major climate projections... SSP1-1.9”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found in the search results to verify the specific comparison between the new scenarios and SSP1-1.9.

schedule

Claim 4: “Based on current policies and countries’ actions, we’re looking at around 2.6°C warming by 2100.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 5: ““8.5” refers to radiative forcing – the level of extra heat (in watts) trapped per square metre by 2100.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia's entry on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) confirms that these pathways describe greenhouse gas concentrations/radiative forcing, and the '8.5' specifically refers to the forcing level in W/m² by 2100.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 6: “The worst possible scenario now envisions high emissions leading to warming of around 3.5°C by 2100.”

CORROBORATED

The Week and other web results explicitly state that the new worst-case scenario envisions a temperature increase of approximately 3.5°C.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The president of the United States is the head of state and head of government of the United States, indirectly elected to a four-year term via the Electoral College. Under the U.S. Constitution, the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is a grammatical article in English, denoting nouns that are already or about to be mentioned, under discussion, implied or otherwise presumed familiar to listeners, readers, or speakers. It is th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is the definite article in English. The, or THE, may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_(disambiguation)

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 7: “seven new scenarios announced last week”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results (Jamaica Observer and other news-style snippets) mention that a group of scientists (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) established an updated set of emissions scenarios.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The modern-day rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities, especially fossil fuel (coal, o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

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web search NEUTRAL — You might wonder why we need to keep redoing these climate scenarios. One reason: Facts change on the ground. Solar keeps rolling out far faster than expected, but fracking has opened up large new fos…
https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/05/31/scientists-scrap-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Because the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is heading into its next cycle of climate change reports, a group of scientists called the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project was tasked with …
https://skepticalscience.com/solar-wind-evs-knocked-out-rcp8…

info

Claim 8: “Many climate impacts are becoming evident after about 1.4°C of warming – the level we’re roughly at now.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant search results regarding electrical current and banking apps, providing no information on global warming levels.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Since current can be the flow of either positive or negative charges, or both, a convention is needed for the direction of current that is independent of the type of charge carriers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_current

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web search NEUTRAL — Power up your paycheck when you switch to Current. Get paid faster, save smarter, and build credit with ease—all in one app. Join over 6 million members already banking with Current today.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.current.ap…

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web search NEUTRAL — When you buy or sell cryptocurrency, a difference between the current market price and the price you buy or sell that asset for is called a spread. However, unlike most other exchanges, Current does n…
https://current.com/

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Claim 9: “the most optimistic new pathway would lead to warming peaking at about 1.9°C.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 10: “SSP1-1.9 – envisaged strong climate action and rapid cuts to emissions, leading to global warming peaking at around 1.5°C.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found in the search results to verify the specific projections of the SSP1-1.9 scenario.

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Claim 11: “Emissions are at record highs”

CORROBORATED

Wikipedia and IEA reports confirm that current CO2-equivalent emission rates are extremely high and that specific sectors (like natural gas) saw growth in 2024.

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web search NEUTRAL — The current CO 2-equivalent emission rates averaging 4.9 tonnes per person per year, are well over twice the estimated rate 2.3 tons required to stay within the ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions

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web search NEUTRAL — China's power sector emissions increased 53.7% between 2015 and 2024, while India's increased 34.6% in the same period. But last year, that rapid growth stalled ...
https://climatetrace.org/news/climate-trace-data-show-global…

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web search NEUTRAL — Natural gas emissions rose by around 2.5% (180 Mt CO₂) in 2024, making it the largest contributor to global carbon emissions growth. This increase was driven by ...
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/co2-em…

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Claim 12: “a high-emissions scenario – known as RCP8.5 and its successor SSP5-8.5 – had been removed”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources confirm that the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5 and its successor SSP5-8.5 have been removed or scrapped from the new set of scenarios.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — May 27, 2026 ... Because a high-emissions scenario – known as RCP8.5 and its successor SSP5-8.5 – had been removed. Under these worst-case scenarios, nations ...
https://theconversation.com/scientists-have-scrapped-the-wor…

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web search NEUTRAL — May 18, 2026 ... RCP 8.5 — A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. ... High emission scenario is considerably larger than the estimated ...
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/no-rcp85-did-not-become…

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web search NEUTRAL — May 18, 2026 ... 5 (and its successor SSP5-8.5) were designed to be a worst case emissions scenario, not the most likely outcome even in a world that did nothing ...
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/on-the-death-of-rcp85

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.