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Sarb warns of rate hikes if Iran war lasts another two months or more

Daily Maverick · · 621 words · By Ed Stoddard
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-03-26-sarb-warns-of-rate-hikes-if-i…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 3
schedule Pending 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) warned on Thursday that monetary policy would be tightened later this year if the Iran war became a prolonged conflict, but held its key repo rate steady at 6.75% for now, leaving the prime rate unchanged at 10.25%.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm the SARB held the repo rate at 6.75% and the prime rate at 10.25% following the Middle East conflict. Furthermore, the web search results indicate the SARB warned that policy tightening could occur if the conflict prolonged.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of commercial banks and other credit institutions in South Africa, as updated late 2024 by the Reserve Bank of South Africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_South_Africa
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is the central bank of South Africa. It was established in 1921 after Parliament passed an act, the "Currency and Bank Act of 10 August 1920", as a direct result …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Reserve_Bank
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The South African rand, or simply the rand, (sign: R; code: ZAR) is the official currency of South Africa. It is subdivided into 100 cents (sign: "c"), and a comma separates the rand and cents. The So…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_rand
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The Sarb’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in its statement: 'The first scenario assumes that the conflict lasts another two months or so, with oil prices averaging nearly $100 per barrel for this period and the rand about 5% weaker against the dollar.'”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results explicitly state the first scenario involves the conflict lasting two months, oil prices averaging near $100 per barrel, and the rand weakening by about 5% against the dollar.
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web search NEUTRAL — The first scenario assumes that the conflict lasts another two months or so, with oil prices averaging nearly $100 per barrel for this period and the rand about 5% weaker against the dollar.
https://www.msn.com/en-za/money/economy/sarb-warns-of-rate-h…
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web search NEUTRAL — Jan 29, 2026 · South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has appointed Dr David Fowkes serve as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from 12 January 2024.
https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/statements/mp…
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web search NEUTRAL — Mar 26, 2026 · “The first assumes the conflict persists for around two months, with oil prices averaging close to $100 a barrel and the rand about 5% weaker against the dollar.
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy/sarb-holds-rate-stea…
info
“The Sarb’s MPC said in its statement: 'The second, more extreme scenario has the war lasting over a year, with oil prices staying above $100 per barrel and the rand 10% weaker.'”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim regarding the 'second, more extreme scenario' (lasting over a year, oil above $100, rand 10% weaker) is not directly corroborated by a second independent source in the provided evidence, although the context of scenario planning is present.
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web search NEUTRAL — Against this backdrop, the SARB’s MPC opted to hold the repo rate at 6.75% (prime at 10.25%), with a unanimous decision among the six members of the MPC reflecting the heightened uncertainty.
https://www.ebnet.co.za/sarb-hits-pause-on-rate-cuts-amid-ri…
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web search NEUTRAL — The world’s second-largest economy buys almost 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports (roughly 1.6 million barrels per day), which are subject to international sanctions. According to Goldman Sachs, a block…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/23/can-iran-really-shu…
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web search NEUTRAL — “Higher energy prices will raise inflation in the near term. We expect headline inflation to soon accelerate to around 4%, with fuel inflation over 18% for the second quarter. Our baseline forecast th…
https://www.dailydispatch.co.za/business/2026-03-26-sarb-mpc…
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“In both scenarios, inflation is higher, exceeding 4% in the first version and 5% in the second. Both call for higher interest rates this year, with one hike in the first scenario and several more in the other.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the evidence discusses inflation projections and the need for rate adjustments based on scenarios (Claims 1 and 2), no single source explicitly details the specific inflation figures (exceeding 4% in the first scenario and 5% in the second) or the exact hike requirements (one hike vs. several more) for both scenarios as stated.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Fisher effect is an economic theory that describes how expectations for inflation may affect nominal interest rates and, therefore, real interest rates.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fishereffect.asp
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web search NEUTRAL — Higher debt adds to the risk of inflationary pressure in both the short- and the long-run, through aggregate demand, inflation expectations, crowding-out of private investment, and worries about fisca…
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inflationary-risks-risin…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035 The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like…
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172
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“The unfolding Middle East conflict and the disruption to global fuel supplies it has wrought have completely changed the economic landscape.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that the Middle East conflict and resulting disruptions to global fuel supplies have significantly impacted the economic landscape, citing impacts on supply chains, energy prices, and global outlook.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Middle East is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, the Levant, and Turkey. The term came into widespread usage by Western European nations in the early 20t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Middle East Eye (MEE) is a United Kingdom-based media website and channel that primarily focuses on news related to the Middle East, North Africa, and the broader Muslim world. Though the organisation…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_Eye
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), also referred to as West Asia and North Africa (WANA) or South West Asia and North Africa (SWANA), is a geographic region which comprises the Middle East (also…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_and_North_Africa
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, the outlook was for rate cuts this year, enabled by a benign inflation outlook.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms attacks by the US and Israel on Iran and mentions pre-existing negotiations (Wikipedia sources). However, the specific claim that the outlook *was* for rate cuts *before* the attacks, enabled by a benign inflation outlook, is not explicitly confirmed by a second independent source.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On June 22, 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Twelve-Day War, under the code name Operation Midnight Hammer. The Fordow Uranium Enrich…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_strikes_on_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On April 12, 2025, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Al…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–2026_Iran–United_States_n…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Twelve-Day War was an armed conflict between Iran and Israel which lasted from 13 to 24 June 2025. It began when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran in a surprise attack, assassi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Consumer price inflation (CPI) in February was 3% on an annual basis, bang in line with the Sarb’s new inflation target.”
CORROBORATED
Two distinct web search results confirm that CPI in February was 3.0% (or 3%), matching the SARB's inflation target.
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web search NEUTRAL — The consumer price index (CPI) is the official measure of inflation in South Africa, compiled and published by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It is a key economic indicator used by the South Afri…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_in_South_…
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web search NEUTRAL — Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3…
https://www.online.fnbbotswana.co.bw/blog/investments/articl…
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web search NEUTRAL — Inflation Rate in South Africa decreased to 3 percent in February from 3.50 percent in January of 2026. This page provides - South Africa Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, cha…
https://tradingeconomics.com/south-africa/inflation-cpi
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“The ongoing Middle East conflict is a clear instance of a supply shock, which raises prices while weakening demand.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources describe the conflict's impact as a shock that affects supply chains and prices, which aligns with the definition of a supply shock (raising prices while disrupting supply).
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web search NEUTRAL — The ongoing Middle East conflict presents a serious risk to Africa, with most countries still growing at rates below the pre-COVID growth path. Overall, a loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage point…
https://africaneyereport.com/ongoing-middle-east-conflict-is…
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web search NEUTRAL — When conflict intensifies in the Middle East, a region that accounts for a disproportionate share of the world’s proven oil reserves and critical maritime infrastructure, the effects do not stay conta…
https://www.soliccapital.com/conflict-supply-chains-and-the-…
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web search NEUTRAL — As Middle East disruptions tighten supply, we’re seeing more emphasis on allocation, logistics, and refining margins rather than headline pricing. The real impact will show up in product availability …
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/energy-sp_conflict-driven-sup…
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“The Sarb did not make a pre-emptive rate hike but pointedly said it needed to be alert to second-round effects, which are difficult to assess.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results to confirm or deny the specific statement that the SARB 'did not make a pre-emptive rate hike but pointedly said it needed to be alert to second-round effects.'
help
“In both scenarios, inflation exceeds the 'tolerance band' around the 3% inflation target.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results to confirm or deny that both scenarios project inflation exceeding the 'tolerance band' around the 3% inflation target.
schedule
“The probability of the next monetary policy move being a hike has increased due to the Middle East conflict.”
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“The Sarb maintains its 2026 economic growth forecast at 1.4%, but acknowledges downside risks to the outlook.”
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“The MPC statement indicates that South Africans should prepare for accelerated inflation, slower economic growth, and potential interest rate increases.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.