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Retail investors have a new 'toy' for speculation, Barclays says

Cnbc · · 506 words · By Ananya Chetia
Generational Trading Behavior Speculative Finance Retail Investment Trends
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/prediction-markets-retail-investors-have-a-new-t…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

11 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 4
help Insufficient Evidence 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
schedule Pending 1
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“Monthly notional volume for predictions platforms have skyrocketed since the 2024 presidential election”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web sources (Dune Blog and another analysis) report that monthly notional volume surged from less than $100 million at the start of 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2025, representing a ~130x increase.
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web search NEUTRAL — Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024.Presidential candidates Trump and Harris campaigned in 17 states, excluding their home states, from August to November in the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia…
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web search NEUTRAL — Monthly notional volume across major platforms surged from less than $100 million at the start of 2024 to over $13 billion in November 2025, a staggering 130x increase in less than two years; open int…
https://dune.com/blog/prediction-markets-the-next-frontier-o…
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web search NEUTRAL — Prediction Markets (PMs) have moved from the margins into a phase of explosive, structurally meaningful growth. Since early 2024, monthly notional trading volume has increased ~130x, surpassing $13B b…
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/prediction-markets-next-finan…
info
“Retail participation in derivatives markets has increased in recent years”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general definitions of 'retail' from Wikipedia and Merriam-Webster, and a general CNBC news link. There is no specific data or reporting provided to confirm the increase of retail participation in derivatives markets.
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web search NEUTRAL — Retail formats (also known as retail formulas) influence the consumer's store choice and address the consumer's expectations. At its most basic level, a retail format is a simple marketplace, that is;…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of RETAIL is to sell in small quantities directly to the ultimate consumer. How to use retail in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/retail
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web search NEUTRAL — Find the latest news, headlines, blogs and video about retail, consumers, shopping and retail companies from CNBC.com.
https://www.cnbc.com/retail/
info
“Those investors make up the majority of participants in zero-day to expiration options, or 0DTE options, in the S&P 500”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence explains what 0DTE options are, but does not provide data or confirmation that retail investors make up the majority of participants in S&P 500 0DTE options.
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web search NEUTRAL — 0DTE options are option contracts that expire the day they are traded, meaning they have zero days to expiration. These options can be bought or sold, allowing traders to profit from short-term price …
https://tfoco.com/en/insights/articles/0dte-options
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web search NEUTRAL — Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8qVeG57UgI
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web search NEUTRAL — Investopedia's Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options and How They Work.
https://www.investopedia.com/zero-days-to-expiration-0dte-op…
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“0DTE options, in the S&P 500, which is responsible for over half of total S&P options volume”
CORROBORATED
One source states 0DTEs are over 43% of overall daily option volume, and another source (Blockchain.News citing KobeissiLetter) states they averaged about 65% of total S&P 500 options volume in Q3 2025. Both support the claim that they represent a massive portion, with the latter explicitly stating it is over half.
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web search NEUTRAL — “Within the S&P 500, daily transaction volume in 0DTEs is now over 43 percent of overall daily option volume, up more than 100 percent as compared to 2021 levels,” points out Bandi, the James Carey En…
https://carey.jhu.edu/news/risk-reward-insights-0dte-option-…
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web search NEUTRAL — According to @KobeissiLetter, retail risk appetite is breaking records as 0DTE options have averaged about 65% of total S&P 500 options volume so far in Q3 2025, marking an all-time high.
https://blockchainnews.azurewebsites.net/flashnews/0dte-opti…
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web search NEUTRAL — With 0DTE options, that information is effectively unavailable altogether—at least with the data I can access. This makes it challenging to develop a precise mechanical understanding of what is occurr…
https://in.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-when-0dte-options-m…
verified
“Five years ago, retail investors fueled the meme stock surge in GameStop and other speculative names and pushed crypto mainstream”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and other web sources confirm that retail investors drove the GameStop 'meme stock' short squeeze in early 2021 (approximately 4-5 years ago).
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web search NEUTRAL — Approximately 140 percent of GameStop's public float had been sold short, and the rush to buy shares to cover those positions as the price rose caused it to rise even further. The short squeeze was in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze
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web search NEUTRAL — Video game retailer GameStop (GME) shot to prominence in early 2021 as retail investors drove a "meme stock" short squeeze.Here's what you need to know about GameStop and the GME saga.
https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-gamestop-and-the-gme-ph…
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web search NEUTRAL — The revival of retail investor enthusiasm is driving a notable rally in GameStop Corp. (GME) shares.This volatility underscores the unpredictable nature of meme stock movements and the risk inherent i…
https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Retail+Investors+Rally+Behi…
info
“The volume of 0DTE options grew in early 2023 as well after Cboe Global Markets launched the option on the S&P 500 Index”
SINGLE SOURCE
One source mentions 0DTE options represented more than 40% of S&P 500 volume by the end of 2022, but the specific link to Cboe Global Markets launching the option in early 2023 as the driver for growth is not explicitly corroborated by multiple independent sources in the provided text.
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web search NEUTRAL — 0DTE options are option contracts that expire the day they are traded, meaning they have zero days to expiration.By the end of 2022, 0DTE options represented more than 40% of the options volume of the…
https://tfoco.com/en/insights/articles/0dte-options
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web search NEUTRAL — Discover a "hidden gem" of options trading! In this video, Matt from Option Omega dives into a backtested SPX trade with 5 years of data that ticks all the b...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJsu9PaWS7M
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web search NEUTRAL — But first, let’s talk options volume. Every year, I expect there to be a drop-off in options volume, and every year I’m proven wrong. 2025 was a sixth-straight record-breaking year, with volumes up 24…
https://finviz.com/news/339686/how-0dte-options-can-explain-…
help
“Leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket's total notional volume sit at more than $24 billion as of April, up from less than $5 billion a year ago, according to data from Dune Analytics”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
The claim states volume was $24 billion as of April and less than $5 billion a year ago. However, the evidence shows much higher figures: combined YTD volume broke $60 billion in mid-April 2026, and combined lifetime volume exceeded $150 billion in April. The numbers in the claim are significantly lower than the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi now holds 72.1% of combined volume. Kalshi posted its highest single-week notional volume on record during the week ending May 4, tallying $4.13 billion, up 8.5% from $3.81 billion the prior we…
https://defirate.com/news/kalshi-sets-weekly-high-4-1b-volum…
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web search NEUTRAL — Second, the combined YTD trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket broke $60 billion in mid-April 2026, exceeding the total of $51 billion for the entire year of 2025.
https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2264006
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web search NEUTRAL — Combined lifetime trading volume for Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $150 billion during April. Kalshi achieved unprecedented monthly performance with $14.81 billion in volume, representing a 13.3% inc…
https://parameter.io/kalshi-crushes-records-with-14-81b-apri…
info
“the majority of the volume is focused on non-economic outcomes, with sport contracts making up the majority leading on both Kalshi and Polymarket”
SINGLE SOURCE
One source explicitly states that 'the vast majority of the volume on Kalshi is betting... on sports.' Other sources discuss the competition between Kalshi and Polymarket but do not independently confirm the sports-dominance statistic.
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web search NEUTRAL — Detractors call prediction markets glorified gambling. Indeed, the vast majority of the volume on Kalshi is betting—or, as the company puts it, “trading”—on sports.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-prediction-markets-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — - Market bets favor Polymarket (47% odds) to lead 2026 volume, signaling belief in macro markets as the future of "truth pricing" infrastructure. The war between Polymarket and Kalshi is not just a ba…
https://www.ainvest.com/news/polymarket-kalshi-battle-soul-i…
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web search NEUTRAL — Meanwhile, Polymarket volume surged 32% WoW with help from Khamenei markets to close the gap on Kalshi. Total notional volume across tracked prediction exchanges rebounded to $5.80 billion for the wee…
https://defirate.com/news/kalshi-polymarket-combine-for-17-9…
help
“Total value traded on the S&P 0DTE market was nearly $57 trillion in March”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
help
“A Northwestern Mutual study from earlier this year found nearly a third of Gen Z and almost a quarter of millennials are currently placing money into prediction markets or sports betting or considering participating in these activities”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
schedule
“CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.