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Refiner stocks are on a nearly unprecedented run. History says it could end soon

Cnbc · · 551 words · By Michael Khouw
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What to know about Refiner stocks are on a nearly unprecedented run. History says it could end soon

Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair each gained over 80% in 2026 against an 11% S&P 500 gain, with the WTI 3-2-1 crack near $59/bbl margins, nearly tripling since January.

Claims checked 16
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center75%
Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair each gained over 80% in 2026 against an 11% S&P 500 gain, with the WTI 3-2-1 crack near $59/bbl margins, nearly tripling since January.

Why it matters

MPC and VLO have nearly doubled YTD, PSX is up 66%, and roughly a third of that move came in a single month.

Common ground

The 2010–2021 average for that same spread was about $19.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/refiner-stocks-are-on-a-nearly-unprecedented-run…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 16 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 4
help Insufficient Evidence 3
info Single Source 3
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Claim 1: “The six-month forward return was negative in all five instances with an average return of negative 10.1%”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the six-month forward returns for the specified technical condition.
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Claim 2: “11% S&P 500 gain [in 2026]”
CORROBORATED
The claim that the S&P 500 is up 11% in 2026 is reported by CNBC and corroborated by other market-related search results mentioning 2026 performance.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — S&P Dow Jones Indices updates the components of the S&P 500 periodically, typically in response to mergers and acquisitions, corporate spin-offs, or in conjunction with the quarterly rebalancing. Betw…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_components_of_the_S…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 is a stock market index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It comprises 503 common stocks which are issued by 500 companies with large market capitalizations, including two share classes…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S&P_500_companies
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500) is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States that are considered to have large market ca…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P_500
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 3: “MPC and VLO have nearly doubled YTD”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources state that MPC and VLO have more than doubled in value since the beginning of 2026 (MPC 110-122%, VLO 98-113%).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Marathon Oil Corporation was an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. In November 2024, it was acquired by ConocoPhillips. Marathon was founded in 1887 in Lima, Ohio, as the Ohio Oil Co…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_Oil
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_Petroleum
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Valero Energy Corporation is an American-based fuels producer mostly involved in manufacturing and marketing transportation fuels and other related products. It is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valero_Energy
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 4: “This has only happened five times in the index's history”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found to support or refute the historical frequency of this specific technical indicator event.
info
Claim 5: “PSX is up 66%”
SINGLE SOURCE
While Energy News Beat reports PSX is up 75-85%, the specific '66%' figure is not corroborated by other independent sources provided; other sources mention different percentages (e.g., 5.63% monthly or 23.9% since earnings).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 76 (formerly and also known as Union 76) is a chain of gas stations located within the United States. The 76 brand is owned by Phillips 66. Unocal, the original owner and creator of the 76 brand, mer…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76_(gas_station)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Oil & Gas Journal publishes an annual worldwide oil refinery survey that provides plant-by-plant data, including refinery location, crude oil processing capacity, and major process unit capacities…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas. Its name, dating back to 1927 as a trademark of the Phillips Petroleum Company, assisted…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_66
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 6: “Marathon, Valero, and HF Sinclair each gained over 80% in 2026”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web sources confirm that Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and HF Sinclair each gained more than 80% in 2026.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Oil & Gas Journal publishes an annual worldwide oil refinery survey that provides plant-by-plant data, including refinery location, crude oil processing capacity, and major process unit capacities…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Petroleum refining in the United States in 2024 had a capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day. Although the U.S. was the world's largest net importer of refined petroleum products as recently as 2008…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_refining_in_the_Unit…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Total revenue of oil and gas companies is listed in billions of U.S. dollars. Total revenue is usually self-reported by companies, and often reported by neutral, unbiased, reliable publications. Repor…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_oil_and_gas_co…
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 7: “Russia is a substantial producer of refined products perhaps 5.5mm bpd under normal circumstances”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
schedule
Claim 8: “trailing P/E ratios have fluctuated between the mid single-digits and 35-40 for refiners like Phillips and Marathon Petroleum over the past ten years (excluding the pandemic period)”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 9: “the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub Industry group that comprises Marathon, Valero Energy and Phillips 66 has jumped 104% this year”
SINGLE SOURCE
While search results identify the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub Industry, none of the provided evidence confirms the specific 104% jump for this group this year.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Zacks Oil and Gas – Refining & Marketing MLP industry has fared better than the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the broader Zacks Oil – Energy sector over the past year.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:fb3d57d67094b:0-3-ref…
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web search NEUTRAL — 0.00. SP500.10102030.Stocks: Real-time U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only; comprehensive quotes and volume reflect trading in all markets and are delayed at least 15 minutes…
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/indexes/sp500.10102030?c…
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web search NEUTRAL — S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 15.5% in 2026 to $314 per share, according to analyst estimates, marking a third consecutive year of dou.
https://dmarketforces.com/sp-500-earnings-projected-to-grow-…
schedule
Claim 10: “The average for the period between February 2016 and February 2026 (just before the strikes on Iran) is $21.68”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 11: “As of Friday's close, the Index is 41% above Worth's favorite indicator, the 150-day moving average”
SINGLE SOURCE
Search results provide general index data but do not confirm the specific claim that the index is 41% above its 150-day moving average.
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web search NEUTRAL — Market Indices.Day High/Low: A histogram that illustrates today's Open/High/Low prices. Close to Close %Change: the percentage difference between the last price and previous settlement price.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$UADF/performance
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web search NEUTRAL — View stock market news, stock market data and trading information.Search Ticker. | SP500.10102030 s&p us. S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Sub Industry Index. + Watchlist.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/sp500.10102030?c…
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web search NEUTRAL — US. Energy. Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. 4. P. PSX.
https://es-us.finanzas.yahoo.com/research-hub/screener/sec-i…
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Claim 12: “that production has fallen by 25-30% by some estimates”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
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Claim 13: “WTI 3-2-1 crack near $59/bbl margins, nearly tripling since January”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread reached approximately $59-$60 per barrel and nearly tripled since January 2026.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Brent Crude is the trading classification for the types of petroleum—sweet crude oil and light crude oil—first extracted from the Brent oilfield in the North Sea in 1976. The term Brent Crude also ide…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_Crude
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a grade or mix of crude oil; the term is also used to refer to the spot price, the futures price, or assessed price for that oil. In colloquial usage, WTI usually refe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate
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web search NEUTRAL — According to CNBC, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and HF Sinclair have each gained more than 80% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is up 11%, as the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread has climbed to nearly $59 a barr…
https://www.binance.bh/en/square/post/08-17-2026-marathon-pe…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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Claim 14: “Nymex 3:2:1 spreads are ~$69.92 for September (up from less than $20 in early January)”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
help
Claim 15: “The 2010–2021 average for that same spread was about $19”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
The claim states the 2010-2021 average was about $19. However, two independent sources explicitly state that from 1985 to 2021, the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread averaged about $10.50 or ~$10 per barrel.
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web search NEUTRAL — From 1985 to 2021, the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread averaged about $10.50 a barrel. Even between 2004 and 2008, during the so-called golden age of refining, the crack spread never surpassed $30.
https://tankterminals.com/news/oil-refining-margins-are-soun…
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web search NEUTRAL — The WTI 3-2-1 crack spread has surged to a record near $60 per barrel, nearly tripling since the start of 2026. For historical perspective, the margin averaged just ~$10/bbl between 1985 and 2021 and …
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mayfair-brooks-group_oil-refi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Diesel/heating-oil cracks reached record levels (U.S. diesel crack above $106/bbl in early September after first breaking $100 in August). The 3-2-1 crack (two gasoline + one distillate vs. three crud…
https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/wti-is-trading-in-the-lo…
schedule
Claim 16: “$44.38 for August 2027”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.