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Polymarket launches private company trading so investors can speculate on Anthropic, OpenAI

Cnbc · · 471 words · By Contessa Brewer
Private Equity Access Democratization of Finance Prediction Markets
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/polymarket-launches-private-company-trading-so-i…

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Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

12 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 3
info Single Source 3
verified Verified By Reference 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
schedule Pending 2
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“The company is launching prediction markets tied to private company milestones, including valuations, IPO timing and secondary-market activity for names like OpenAI and Anthropic.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm Polymarket launched prediction markets for private company performance, specifically mentioning IPOs and companies like OpenAI.
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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web search NEUTRAL — New market launches on Polymarket have climbed to consecutive monthly highs over the entire past year, according to The Block's prediction market data. So far in 2026, the platform has recorded just s…
https://www.theblock.co/post/401866/polymarket-rolls-out-pre…
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket launched a new set of prediction markets on Tuesday that allows users to trade on private company performance for the first time.Rival prediction market Kalshi also hosts contracts on when …
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-prediction-market-pr…
verified
“Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the exclusive resolution data provider, supplying the information that determines whether these contracts pay out.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While the evidence confirms the existence of Nasdaq and Polymarket, none of the provided search results specifically mention Nasdaq Private Market as the exclusive resolution data provider for these contracts.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) is an American multinational financial services company formed in 2000 that operates global financial exchanges and clearing houses and provides mortgage technolo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercontinental_Exchange
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The economic policy of the Joe Biden administration, colloquially known as Bidenomics (a portmanteau of Biden and economics), is characterized by relief measures and vaccination efforts to address the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Biden_a…
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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · COMP | A complete NASDAQ Composite Index index overview by MarketWatch. View stock market news, stock market data and trading information.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp
+ 2 more evidence sources
verified
“more than 1600 are unicorns valued at a billion dollars or more, according to Nasdaq.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of dictionary definitions of the word 'according' and general Wikipedia entries for Nasdaq, but no specific data regarding the number of unicorn companies.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index is a stock market index made up of securities of NASDAQ-listed companies classified according to the Industry Classification Benchmark as either the Biotechnology or the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASDAQ_Biotechnology_Index
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nasdaq Inc. is an American multinational financial services corporation providing data, analytics, software, exchange capabilities, and advisory services to corporate clients, investment managers, ban…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq,_Inc.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The NASDAQ Composite (ticker symbol ^IXIC) is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, it is o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Composite
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Polymarket currently lists a market on whether OpenAI will have a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms Polymarket's general function and the existence of private company markets, but there is no specific corroboration from a second independent source regarding the $1 trillion IPO market for OpenAI before 2027.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency -based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pa…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on future events across various topics.
https://polymarket.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Trade on polymarket prediction markets with USDC. Bet on politics, sports, crypto prices & real-world events. Decentralized, transparent, zero trading fees.
https://polymarkett.to/
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“another tied to whether Anthropic reaches a valuation of at least $500 billion in 2026.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results explicitly mention a Polymarket page regarding 'Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?' and other reports about Anthropic's valuation targets in 2026.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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web search NEUTRAL — Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%.
https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-valued-higher-than-op…
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web search NEUTRAL — Anthropic is considering a funding round that would value it at over $900 billion. The company is entertaining offers for approximately $50 billion at a valuation of $850–$900 billion, with a board de…
https://thenextweb.com/news/anthropic-900-billion-valuation-…
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“There is also a contract asking whether Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at any point this year.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results specifically show a Polymarket market asking if Anthropic's valuation will hit a certain mark by December 31 and other reports discussing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI.
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web search NEUTRAL — View real-time odds for "Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?" as of May 19, 2026 and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-b…
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web search NEUTRAL — Whether Anthropic can sustain its current trajectory will depend not only on continued enterprise adoption of Claude, but also on its ability to maintain technological leadership in an increasingly cr…
https://slguardian.org/anthropic-nears-900b-valuation-overta…
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web search NEUTRAL — The speed at which Anthropic’s valuation has skyrocketed is incredible. Just over a year ago, Anthropic was valued at $61.5 billion. If the valuation from today’s report holds, Anthropic’s value will …
https://sherwood.news/tech/anthropic-in-talks-for-funding-at…
info
“it will make the valuation data publicly available for free, without a subscription.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence describes Nasdaq's general operations but does not mention a specific policy to make private valuation data publicly available for free without a subscription.
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web search NEUTRAL — Nasdaq" (originally and still commonly spelled with all-capital letters as "NASDAQ") is an acronym for The "National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations". [8] On February 8, 1971, t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq
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web search NEUTRAL — Get the latest stock market news, stock information & quotes, data analysis reports, as well as a general overview of the market landscape from Nasdaq.
https://www.nasdaq.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · COMP | A complete NASDAQ Composite Index index overview by MarketWatch. View stock market news, stock market data and trading information.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp
info
“Kalshi also offers some event contracts on whether private companies will IPO, but they resolve based on an amalgamation of sources including company sites, the SEC, and a slew of news outlets.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms Kalshi is a prediction market platform, but there is no independent corroboration of the specific resolution methodology (amalgamation of SEC, company sites, etc.) for IPO contracts.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.
https://kalshi.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 21, 2026 · Prediction markets are becoming more and more prevalent when it comes to dissecting odds and predictions in the sports world, and Kalshi has positioned itself as one of the most predomi…
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/predictions-markets/news/kal…
help
“It [Kalshi] doesn't offer markets on private company valuations.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results to confirm or deny whether Kalshi offers markets on private company valuations.
help
“On its Anthropic company page, the share-price chart shows an estimated NPM price of $477.02 as of May 5”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding a specific NPM price of $477.02 for Anthropic as of May 5.
schedule
“It also lists a highest bid of $260.80, a lowest offer of $188.50 and a last trade of $234.00.”
PENDING
schedule
“Kalshi and CNBC have a commercial relationship which includes a minority investment.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.