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Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election

Al Jazeera · · 651 words · By Al Jazeera Staff
Ideological Polarization Political Corruption/Scandal Electoral Competition
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/poll-shows-lula-and-bolsonaro-tied-befo…

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fact_checkFact-Check Results

16 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 4
verified Verified By Reference 3
verified Verified 1
cancel Disputed 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“both the left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his right-wing challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro, tied in a head-to-head contest.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent news sources (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, and a Reuters-attributed report) confirm that a poll shows Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie or 'dead heat'.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The second presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva started on 1 January 2023, when he was inaugurated as the 39th President of Brazil. Lula was elected for a third term as President of Brazil on 30 Oc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Lula_da_S…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 35th and 39th president of Brazil was imprisoned at the ABC Metalworkers' Union in São Bernardo do Campo, in Greater São Paulo following his surrender to the Federal Po…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imprisonment_of_Luiz_Inácio_Lu…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born Luiz Inácio da Silva; 27 October 1945), known mononymously as Lula, is a Brazilian politician, trade unionist and former metalworker who has served as president of Braz…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“On Saturday, Datafolha, the polling firm for the Grupo Folha media conglomerate, released its latest numbers”
CORROBORATED
Both Al Jazeera and other web search results confirm that Datafolha, the polling firm for Grupo Folha, released its latest numbers on a Saturday.
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web search NEUTRAL — On Saturday, Datafolha, the polling firm for the Grupo Folha media conglomerate, released its latest numbers, tracking the candidates’ progress in the run-up to October’s generation election.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/poll-shows-lula-and…
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web search NEUTRAL — A poll released on Saturday by Datafolha, a leading Brazilian research company, ratchets up pressure on Ms. Rousseff, 65, to respond more energetically to the concerns of protesters, and raises doubts…
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/30/world/americas/after-prot…
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 presidential election, according to a poll released Wednesday.A Datafolha survey published Saturday showed Lula with 46% support compared with 43% for Bolsonaro. Quaest tested first- and second-roun…
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/03/12/latam-bra…
verified
“Nearly 2,004 responded to the latest survey”
VERIFIED
A Datafolha survey specifically cited in the evidence interviewed 2,004 voters in 135 cities.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Datafolha is Grupo Folha's polling institute, founded in 1983 as the research department of Empresa Folha da Manhã S. A., and later on became a separate company able to serve external clients, from 19…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datafolha
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_B…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Opinion polling has been regularly conducted in Brazil since the start of Jair Bolsonaro's four-year term administration, gauging public support for the President of Brazil and his government. Typical…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Jair_Bo…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Lula, now 80 years old, is angling for a fourth nonconsecutive term.”
CORROBORATED
Al Jazeera and The Hindu both report Lula as 80 years old and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Wikipedia confirms his birth date as October 27, 1945, which aligns with him being 80 in 2025/2026.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of international presidential trips made by Lula da Silva, the 39th and current president of Brazil. Lula has made 42 international trips to 43 countries during his second presidency so…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presiden…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born Luiz Inácio da Silva; 27 October 1945), known mononymously as Lula, is a Brazilian politician, trade unionist and former metalworker who has served as president of Braz…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The second presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva started on 1 January 2023, when he was inaugurated as the 39th President of Brazil. Lula was elected for a third term as President of Brazil on 30 Oc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Lula_da_S…
+ 2 more evidence sources
verified
“Brazil’s presidents are limited to two four-year terms at a time”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia explicitly states that the president of Brazil serves for a term of four years and may be re-elected for a single consecutive term.
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web search NEUTRAL — Term length. Four years, renewable once consecutively.The president of Brazil serves for a term of four years,[6] and may be re-elected for a single consecutive term.[7] This two-term limit, however, …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Brazil
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web search NEUTRAL — French presidents are limited to two consecutive terms, allowing a maximum of ten years in office if re-elected.Initially, the Russian Constitution allowed presidents to serve two consecutive four-yea…
https://www.ofthelaw.com/how-many-years-can-a-president-serv…
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web search NEUTRAL — such term. Section 2. This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven y…
https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/a…
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“Lula first served as president from 2003 to 2011”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and Britannica Kids both confirm that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva served as president from 2003 to 2011.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rosângela Lula da Silva (born 27 August 1966), commonly known as Janja, is the first lady of Brazil as the wife of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Previously, she was an assistant to the Director…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosângela_Lula_da_Silva
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born Luiz Inácio da Silva; 27 October 1945), known mononymously as Lula, is a Brazilian politician, trade unionist and former metalworker who has served as president of Braz…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — General elections will be held in Brazil on 4 October 2026 to elect the president, vice president, members of the National Congress, the governors, vice governors and legislative assemblies of all fed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Brazilian_general_electio…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio — a senator representing Rio de Janeiro”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and Newsmax confirm Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro and a Senator for Rio de Janeiro.
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web search NEUTRAL — Flávio Bolsonaro, Senator for Rio de Janeiro & eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro.Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[27]. Donald Trump Jr., political activist and son of Donald Trump. André V…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro_2022_presidenti…
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web search NEUTRAL — Brazilian Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, said Friday that his father decided he should represent their political group and run for president in 2026.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/brazil-bolsonaro-su…
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web search NEUTRAL — Bolsonaro, on the other hand, is hoping to continue his father’s far-right political legacy. The eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio — a senator representing Rio de Janeir…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/poll-shows-lula-and…
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“Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to plot a coup and subvert the election results in 2022”
CORROBORATED
Al Jazeera, The Hindu, and NPR all independently report that Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup to subvert the 2022 election results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to plot a coup and subvert the election results in 2022, which saw an end to his term and the beginning to Lula’s latest.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/poll-shows-lula-and…
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web search NEUTRAL — Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup to overturn the 2022 election won by President Lula da Silva. |
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/with-bolsonaro-i…
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web search NEUTRAL — Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after he was convicted last year by a panel of Supreme Court justices. He was admitted to the hospital after experiencing high fever,…
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/npr/2026/03/14/nx-s1-5747…
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“Both candidates received 45 percent of the polled voter support, with an additional 9 percent indicating they would cast “null” ballots. The remaining 1 percent was undecided.”
DISPUTED
Al Jazeera reports both candidates received 45% with 9% null and 1% undecided. However, Bloomberg reports a slightly different split where Bolsonaro has 46% and Lula has 45%. While they are statistically tied, the exact numbers differ between sources.
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web search NEUTRAL — The leftist leader would receive 45% of the vote in a runoff, trailing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro for the first time. Bolsonaro, who’s running with the backing of his father, former President Jair Bolso…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-11/brazil-s-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Saturday’s poll results put Lula and the younger Bolsonaro in a dead heat. Both candidates received 45 percent of the polled voter support, with an additional 9 percent indicating they would cast “nul…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/16/poll-shows-lula-and…
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web search NEUTRAL — It was the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically in a Datafolha poll, but the changes remained within the survey's margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, m…
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/bolsonaro-lula-brazil/2026…
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“the poll, conducted on May 12 and 13”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific dates of May 12 and 13 for the poll conduct.
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“On May 13, The Intercept Brasil, a news publication, printed a report containing leaked WhatsApp messages between Bolsonaro and a banker arrested for an alleged fraud scheme, Daniel Vorcaro.”
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“Bolsonaro had reportedly approached Vorcaro to finance a film about his father’s life, called Dark Horse.”
PENDING
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“it had tapped US actor Jim Caviezel to play the ex-president.”
PENDING
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“Flavio Bolsonaro and his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro had soliciting funding from Vorcaro, who ultimately pledged $24m, or 134 million Brazilian reals, to the film project.”
PENDING
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“In December, the senator entered the presidential race”
PENDING
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“In April, Brazil’s Supreme Court also gave the go-ahead for federal police to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro had made defamatory statements about Lula.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.