Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Simon Welsh on One Nation’s rise and Victoria’s ‘very messy’ election

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Jun 10, 2026 · 834 words · By Michelle Grattan

Electoral Volatility Economic hardship Political Leadership Stability

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What to know about Electoral Volatility

The article discusses recent polling data showing the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the decline of the Labor party both nationally and in Victoria. It features analysis from pollster Simon Welsh regarding the electoral dynamics in Victoria and the economic drivers behind voter dissatisfaction with the federal budget.

Propaganda risk 30%

Claims checked 6

Techniques found 3

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center86%

Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Yet another poll and yet another result showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of Labor at a national level, with the Coalition way behind.

Why it matters

The latest Newspoll has confirmed the trend is clear.

Common ground

Labor is becoming increasingly alarmed, while the Coalition has long been in panic.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Pity, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Electoral Volatility story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that polling by Freshwater for the Herald Sun shows Labor running third in Victoria behind the Coalition and One Nation?
How does this story connect Electoral Volatility with Economic hardship over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-pollster-simon-welsh-…

analyticsAnalysis

30%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 3 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Appeal to Pity 60% confidence

Evoking sympathy to win support rather than using logical arguments.

Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to pity helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 6 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 4

info Single Source 1

verified Verified 1

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Claim 1: “polling by Freshwater for the Herald Sun shows Labor running third in Victoria behind the Coalition and One Nation.”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources (Freshwater Strategy and Politics with Michelle Grattan) explicitly state that a Freshwater poll for the Herald Sun shows Labor running third in Victoria behind the Coalition and One Nation.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legisl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Victorian_state_election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election in November 2026, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourabil…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 2: “He’s spent more than 20 years in market and social research, including doing qualitative research for the Daniel Andrews Labor government’s successful re-election campaign in 2018.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is explicitly stated in the 'Politics with Michelle Grattan' web search result, but no other independent source corroborates Simon Welsh's specific professional history or his work on the 2018 campaign.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Aaron Charles Rogers (born 5 January 1984) is a former Australian rules footballer who played in the Australian Football League (AFL). Born in Sydney, New South Wales, Rogers played in the Sydney AFL …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Rogers

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of Welsh people; an ethnic group and nation associated with Wales. Historian John Davies argues that the origin of the Welsh nation can be traced to the late 4th and early 5th centuries…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Welsh_people

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rebecca Mary Evans (born 2 August 1976) is a Welsh Labour and Co-operative politician who served as Cabinet Secretary for the Economy, Energy and Planning from 2024 to 2026. She previously served as C…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebecca_Evans_(politician)

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “Almost two-thirds (62%) of the 1,034 people polled also backed replacing Jacinta Allan as premier before the November election – including 39% of Labor voters surveyed.”

CORROBORATED

The specific figures (62% of 1,034 people, including 39% of Labor voters) are reported identically in the 'Politics with Michelle Grattan' source and the 'Freshwater Strategy' report.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jacinta Marie Allan (born 19 September 1973) is an Australian politician who served as the 49th premier of Victoria from 2023 to 2026, holding office as the leader of the Victorian Labor Party. She ha…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinta_Allan

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Allan ministry was the 72nd ministry of the Government of Victoria. The Labor government, led by Premier Jacinta Allan and Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, was officially sworn in following the resign…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinta_Allan_ministry

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “One Nation takes primary vote lead in Newspoll as Albanese’s ratings slump to record low”

CORROBORATED

A web search result specifically titled 'One Nation takes primary vote lead in Newspoll as Albanese's ratings slump to record low' confirms both the primary vote lead and the record low approval rating (-24) as of June 8, 2026.

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web search NEUTRAL — Jun 8, 2026 ... Anthony Albanese's net approval slumped seven points to -24, a record low below his previous record low -21 in February 2025.
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-takes-primary-vote-le…

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 3, 2026 ... The latest federal Newspoll shows Labor regaining the primary vote lead at 33% (up 3 points), with One Nation at 29% (down 2) and the Coalition ...
https://www.facebook.com/theaustralian/posts/prime-ministers…

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 20, 2026 ... And yet Roy Morgan poll says the opposite! ... Nicole Doughney Yes dear. 5d · 1 like.
https://www.facebook.com/9News/posts/prime-minister-anthony-…

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Claim 5: “Yet another poll and yet another result showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of Labor at a national level, with the Coalition way behind.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web search results from June and July 2026 confirm One Nation leading on a primary vote basis (29% in Capital Brief/DemosAU poll) and being level with the Coalition, placing them ahead of Labor in these specific polls.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing to far-right political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who is the party’s president …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Lee Hanson (née Seccombe, formerly Zagorski; born 27 May 1954) is an Australian politician who is the leader of One Nation. She has been a senator for Queensland since 2016, and was the member…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 6: “the May 12 federal budget brought a sharp backlash from investor groups and business interests.”

VERIFIED

A web search result from The Straits Times confirms that Treasurer Jim Chalmers proposed changes to capital gains tax (CGT) in the federal budget on May 12, which prompted a 'sharp backlash from start-up founders' and business interests.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 12 12 12 is an upcoming American heist television series created by Dudi Appleton and Jim Keeble. The series stars Anthony Mackie and Jamie Dornan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_12_12

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — May is the fifth month of the year in the Julian and Gregorian calendars. Its length is 31 days. May is a month of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, and autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — May 12 is the 132nd day of the year (133rd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 233 days remain until the end of the year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_12

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.