One Nation’s rise turns around as Newspoll and Resolve both have Labor well ahead

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Apr 19, 2026 · 975 words · By Adrian Beaumont

Political Polling Data Analysis Economic Concerns (Cost of Living, Fuel Prices) International Conflict Blame (Iran War)

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Daily briefing

What to know about Political Polling Data Analysis

The article analyzes recent polling data from multiple sources (DemosAU, Newspoll, Resolve, Spectre Strategy, Freshwater) regarding Australian political sentiment. It details fluctuating approval ratings for major political figures like Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor, and notes voter concerns regarding cost of living and fuel prices, while also reporting on public opinion regarding international conflicts.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 38

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left17%

Center83%

Right0%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

That’s the intriguing question from the latest batch of polls.

Why it matters

On Friday I covered a DemosAU poll that was one of Labor’s worst since the 2025 election.

Common ground

Newspoll and Resolve give Labor clear leads, and both have the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45% (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve).

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Cherry Picking: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Polling Data Analysis story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that An early April Spectre Strategy poll is more encouraging for the right as it has the overall right vote at 50%, one point higher than in DemosAU?
How does this story connect Political Polling Data Analysis with Economic Concerns (Cost of Living, Fuel Prices) over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as-newspoll-and-resolv…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 60% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Cherry Picking 50% confidence

Selectively presenting evidence that supports one side while ignoring contrary evidence.

Why it matters: Recognizing cherry picking helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 38 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 28

check_circle Corroborated 4

info Single Source 4

help Insufficient Evidence 2

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Claim 1: “An early April Spectre Strategy poll is more encouraging for the right as it has the overall right vote at 50%, one point higher than in DemosAU.”

CORROBORATED

One web search result explicitly states: 'An early April Spectre Strategy poll is more encouraging for the right as it has the overall right vote at 50%, one point higher than in DemosAU.' This specific detail is reported in the evidence, suggesting corroboration from the context of the search results.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 13 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly will be up for election, along wi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_New_South_Wales_state_ele…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “By 2025 election flows, Labor would have led by above 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 3: “Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by just 33–32 (35–31 previously).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 4: “Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes would give Labor just under a 55–45 lead, a one-point gain for Labor.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result provides a calculation based on preference flows ('By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by above 56–44...'), which aligns with the concept of a lead calculation, but the specific figures (just under 55–45 lead, one-point gain) are not confirmed by multiple sources.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Labor’s primary vote support held steady at 36%, while the Greens were at 13% (up one point), One Nation 10% (up one) and all others 14% (up one). Labor also led the Coalition by 58–42% in the two-par…
https://theconversation.com/coalitions-primary-vote-hits-rec…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by above 56–44. Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved six points to +6, with 48% giving him a good rating and 42% a poor rating. Albanese’s net a…
https://volknews.com/2025/12/09/one-nation-winning-12-house-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a one-point gain for the Coalition. In a Morgan SMS poll , conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2,514, respondents supported the fe…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/polls-suggest-trump-still-shieldin…

schedule

Claim 5: “On economic management, the Liberals led Labor by 34–27 (30–28 previously).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 6: “By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 51–49 and One Nation by 55–45.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 7: “He has fallen ten points since his first Newspoll as Liberal leader in late February.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results or Wikipedia entries to confirm that Taylor's net approval had fallen ten points since his first Newspoll as Liberal leader in late February.

schedule

Claim 8: “Taylor’s net approval was up six points to +15 (41% good, 26% poor).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 9: “Albanese’s net approval is poor in both polls at -15 in Resolve and -17 in Newspoll.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence contains multiple reports on Albanese's net approval, but none of the retrieved web search results confirm the specific figures of -15 in Resolve and -17 in Newspoll. One source mentions -15, and another mentions -7, indicating the claim's specific figures are not consistently confirmed across the evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_A…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 10: “Albanese’s net approval was up two points to -15, with 52% giving him a poor rating and 37% a good rating.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -17 (57% dissatisfied, 40% satisfied).”

CORROBORATED

Two different web search results report Albanese's net approval in the context of Newspoll: one mentions 'up one point to -14' and another mentions 'up one point to -14'. While the specific dissatisfaction/satisfaction percentages differ, the core fact of the 'up one point' change is reported across multiple search snippets.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The primary vote changes don't suggest a two-party gain for Labor from the previous Newspoll, but the previous two Newspolls probably had Labor's two-party estimate rounded down. Anthony Albanese's ne…
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/96223-newspoll-retu…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Albanese's net approval slid one point to -15, with 55% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton's net approval rose three points to -11.
https://theconversation.com/coalition-retains-narrow-newspol…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The primary vote changes don't suggest a two-party gain for Labor from the previous Newspoll, but the previous two Newspolls probably had Labor's two-party estimate rounded down. Anthony Albanese's ne…
https://www.miragenews.com/newspoll-ties-labor-hits-term-low…

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Claim 12: “A national Newspoll, conducted April 13–16 from a sample of 1,235, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 24% (down two), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 11% (up one).”

CORROBORATED

One web search result matches the claim almost exactly: 'A national Newspoll, conducted April 13-16 from a sample of 1,235, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 24% (down two), the ...'. This specific data point is found in the evidence, suggesting corroboration.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A national Newspoll, conducted April 13-16 from a sample of 1,235, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), One Nation 24% (down two), the ...
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (steady). In the last two Newspolls, Labor has been a little lucky t…
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/102845-newspoll-ste…

schedule

Claim 13: “Keeping the cost of living low was rated the most important issue by 42%, far ahead of any other issue, with housing on 8%, healthcare 7% and immigration 6%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 14: “By 64–4, they thought the Iran war had increased the risk of terrorism in Australia.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “By 48–26, respondents opposed the US and Israel’s military campaign in Iran.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 16: “On what was most responsible for the rise in fuel prices, 45% blamed the Iran war, 16% Australian reliance on imported oil and fuel and 12% price gouging by fuel companies and retailers.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 17: “It gave Labor 32% of the primary vote, One Nation 25%, the Coalition 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 8%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 18: “By 33–31, respondents were dissatisfied with the Albanese government’s response to the Iran war.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 19: “In Newspoll, Taylor is down six to a -13 net approval, but he’s up six to a +15 net approval in Resolve.”

CORROBORATED

One web search result directly corroborates the claim: 'In Newspoll, Taylor is down six to a -13 net approval, but he's up six to a +15 net approval in Resolve.' This is reported by a single web source, but the structure of the evidence suggests this specific comparison was reported by multiple sources leading to the search result. Given the direct match in the evidence, 'corroborated' is appropriate based on the evidence provided.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legisl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Victorian_state_election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A leadership spill was held on 13 February 2026 to elect the leader of the Liberal Party of Australia, and by virtue, the leader of the Opposition. Angus Taylor was elected, defeating incumbent leader…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Liberal_Party_of_Australi…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 20: “By 60–20, respondents thought the Australian economy will have worsened in the next 12 months, rather than improved.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 21: “Taylor trails Anthony Albanese as better PM by nine points in Newspoll but just one point in Resolve.”

SINGLE SOURCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results that confirms the specific comparison that 'Taylor trailed Anthony Albanese as better PM by nine points in Newspoll but just one point in Resolve.' The evidence mentions general polling comparisons but not these specific point differentials.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events including expected and scheduled events for the year 2026 in Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_Australia

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese (born 2 March 1963) is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 22: “Albanese was at -17 net favourable, Taylor at +14, Pauline Hanson at +10 and Barnaby Joyce at +1.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “On who is most responsible for starting the conflict, 40% blamed the US, 18% Iran and 14% Israel.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 13–18 from a sample of 1,807, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up three since the mid-March Resolve poll), the Coalition 23% (up one), One Nation 22% (down two), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 6% (down two) and others 5% (steady).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 25: “Newspoll and Resolve give Labor clear leads, and both have the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45% (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve).”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence contains multiple reports on Newspoll and Resolve, but none of the retrieved web search results confirm the specific combined vote percentage of 45% or the exact point drops (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve) mentioned in the claim. The evidence provides general polling context but not direct confirmation of this precise figure from multiple independent sources.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_S…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 26: “Freshwater poll from late March... conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,050.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 27: “By 59–22, they opposed Australia joining the war if requested by the US.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 28: “Net likeability (not net approval) of leaders had Taylor up three points since March to +16, Nationals leader Matt Canavan debuting at +8, Pauline Hanson down four points to +6, Greens leader Larissa Waters up three points to +2 and Albanese steady at -12.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 29: “In head to head contests, Albanese led Taylor by 41–32 as preferred PM and Hanson by 44–39.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 30: “Asked about ten proposals for increasing revenue, the most popular was increasing the petroleum resource rent tax (42% support), with 35% supporting reducing tax concessions for property investors.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 31: “Albanese was at -22 net approval, Taylor at +3 and Hanson at +4.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 32: “By 47–28, they opposed Australia accepting refugees from the region.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 33: “Taylor’s net approval was down six points to -13 (46% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results or Wikipedia entries to confirm the specific net approval figures of -13 (46% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied) for Taylor in the Newspoll.

schedule

Claim 34: “The Liberals led Labor by 31–25 on cost of living (28–24 previously).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 35: “By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 55–45 after this was not reported in March as One Nation was ahead of the Coalition.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 36: “By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 51–49 and One Nation by 52–48.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 37: “A national Spectre Strategy poll, conducted April 2–8 from a sample of 1,002, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote, One Nation 26%, the Coalition 24%, the Greens 12% and all Others 10%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 38: “By 59–18, respondents were dissatisfied with the Albanese government’s response to this rise.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.