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One Nation wins Farrer byelection as Liberal vote crashes

The Conversation · · 1038 words · By Adrian Beaumont
One Nation Political Growth International Election Results Australian Electoral Trends

The article provides a detailed report on various election results and polling data, focusing on One Nation's victory in the Farrer byelection and national polling trends in Australia. It also summarizes recent election outcomes in the UK and specific state elections in Tasmania and South Australia.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nation-wins-farrer-byelection-as-liberal-vote-cr…

analyticsAnalysis

20%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

29 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 19
check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
cancel Disputed 1
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“One Nation has won the Farrer federal byelection – the first time the party has won an election for a federal House of Representatives seat.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources, including Wikipedia and news reports (ABC, other web results), confirm that David Farley of One Nation won the Farrer by-election and that this was the party's first win for a federal House of Representatives seat.
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web search NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — David Farley's win means One Nation has won its first election for a federal House of Representatives seat.
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-wins-farrer-byelectio…
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web search NEUTRAL — The ABC projects David Farley has won the Farrer by-election, becoming the first One Nation candidate ever elected to the House of Representatives. Follow live.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-09/farrer-by-election-li…
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“The byelection in the regional New South Wales seat was triggered by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s resignation.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including The Guardian and YouTube news clips, confirm that the Farrer by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley.
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web search NEUTRAL — It is official: Sussan Ley's time in federal parliament is over. Dumped as Liberal leader just a fortnight ago, her resignation today sets in motion a by-ele...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvjqrG1adeQ
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web search NEUTRAL — Sussan Ley’s resignation has triggered a brutal byelection battle – with One Nation to test its recent polling success against both Coalition parties and popular independents.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-hope-i-have-paved-…
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web search NEUTRAL — The byelection, triggered by the resignation of former opposition leader, Sussan Ley, is expected to be won by either One Nation, the insurgent rightwing populist party peeling votes away from the Coa…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/08/throu…
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“At the 2025 general election, Ley had defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer by 56.2–43.8.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (The Canberra Times and a DemosAU poll report) specifically cite the 2025 general election result in Farrer as Sussan Ley defeating Michelle Milthorpe 56.2% to 43.8%.
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web search NEUTRAL — Sussan Penelope Ley is an Australian retired politician who served as the leader of the Opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party from 2025 to 2026. She was the member of parliament for the New S…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sussan_Ley
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web search NEUTRAL — Mrs Milthorpe ran against Ms Ley in the 2025 federal election, losing 56.2 to 43.8 per cent after preferences, narrowing Ms Ley's margin to 6.2 per cent.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9185134/ley-delivers-…
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web search NEUTRAL — At the 2025 federal election, Ley defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer by 56.2–43.8. The Liberal vs Labor two-party vote in Farrer was 62.9–37.1 to Ley. Primary votes were 43.4% Ley, 20.0…
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-leads-in-victorian…
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“The Poll Bludger’s results system is projecting that One Nation’s David Farley will defeat Milthorpe by 58.0–42.0 when all votes are counted.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results discuss the Farrer by-election and the contest between David Farley and Michelle Milthorpe, none of the provided evidence mentions a specific projection from 'The Poll Bludger' with the numbers 58.0-42.0.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Liberal and National will preference One Nation’s David Farley ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection on 9 May. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/21/farre…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Coalition and One Nation would be favoured to win a combined majority. Also in Victoria, a byelection will be needed in Nepean after Liberal MP Sam Groth resigned.
https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-leads-in-victorian…
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web search NEUTRAL — ‘I’d be very shocked if they win’: The One Nation vs independent showdown in Farrer.There are just three days until the Farrer by-election and — for the first time — it looks like voters won’t be elec…
https://www.crikey.com.au/2026/05/06/farrer-byelection-vote-…
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“Current primary votes are 42.3% Farley (up 35.1% on One Nation’s 2025 vote), 25.6% Milthorpe (up 7.0%), 11.2% Liberals (down 32.2%) 9.7% Nationals (new), 2.7% Legalisse Cannabis (new), 2.4% Greens (down 2.8%) and 2.0% Shooters (down 1.7%).”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence contains some primary vote data for the 2025 election and some quota data for the by-election, but it does not list the specific primary vote percentages (42.3%, 25.6%, etc.) mentioned in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — Final primary votes gave Labor 4.41 quotas, One Nation 2.93, the Liberals 2.13, the Greens 1.22, Legalise Cannabis 0.28 and Family First 0.26. The electronic distribution of preferences was ...
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-wins-farrer-byelectio…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Liberal Democrats believe they have done enough to take control of Shropshire Council and will win 42 seats on the authority. Thirty-eight is required for an overall majority. Counting is ongoing …
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c39jedewxp8t
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web search NEUTRAL — 1) one 2) two 3) three B. What did John do in the park? 1) He played football. 2) He read books.
https://www.euroki.org/koza/a-how-many-children-were-there-i…
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“Labor didn’t contest after winning 15.1% in 2025.”
CORROBORATED
One source explicitly states Labor decided not to contest the Farrer by-election, and another mentions it was unlikely they would contest it, while a third source confirms Labor's 2025 primary vote in Farrer was 15.1%.
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web search NEUTRAL — A by-election will be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of parliament for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — That said, Labor has decided not to contest the Farrer byelection, whereas there are candidates for One Nation, the Liberals and the Nationals in the field, as well as the high-profile independent Mic…
https://theconversation.com/the-times-seem-to-suit-anthony-a…
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web search NEUTRAL — It's unlikely Labor will contest the byelection given the party has not achieved a quarter of the primary vote since the 2007 federal election, said former ABC election analyst Antony Green.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/farrer-byelection-2026-dat…
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“A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted April 28 to May 5 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up three since the April 14–21 YouGov poll), One Nation 24% (down three), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 14% (steady), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (down one).”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions YouGov polls and primary votes, but does not provide the specific data for the April 28 to May 5 sample (30% Labor, 24% One Nation, etc.) described in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — The YouGov and Morgan polls imply that’s still the case, with the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45–45.5% (down one in YouGov and 3.5 in Morgan in the last fortnight).
https://theconversation.com/polls-suggest-trump-still-shield…
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web search NEUTRAL — A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 17–21 from a sample of 1,610, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 by respondent preferences. This is the first time since the 2022 el…
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/81269-labor-maintai…
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web search NEUTRAL — At the 2025 federal election, the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8%, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1%.
https://switzer.com.au/whats-behind-pauline-hanson-and-one-n…
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“By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by a blowout 57–43, a five-point gain for Labor.”
DISPUTED
Different sources provide conflicting preference numbers. One source says Labor led One Nation 56-44 and the Coalition 53-47. Another source says Labor led One Nation 57-43 and the Coalition 55-45.
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web search NEUTRAL — By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 56–44, a one-point gain for Labor. They led the Coalition by 53–47, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up four p…
https://theconversation.com/2-of-3-new-federal-polls-have-th…
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web search NEUTRAL — In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. This was despite primary votes of 31 percent Labor, 25 percent One Nation and 20 percent Coalition.
https://newsreel.com.au/article/perspectives/labor-still-lea…
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web search NEUTRAL — Labor also leads the Coalition 53-47% in new polls from the RedBridge Group and Spectre Strategy. Respondent-allocated preference flows from various pollsters do not imply a big Coalition gain from th…
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/05/major-yougov-poll-has-l…
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“Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up five points to -14, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.
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“Angus Taylor’s net approval was up one point to -4 (42% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied).”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.
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“Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 45–36 (44–39 previously). He led Pauline Hanson by 54–35 (50–39).”
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“Asked about their personal financial situation in the past three months, 47% of those polled said it was worse, 43% no change and just 7% better.”
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“On what Labor should prioritise in Tuesday’s budget, 36% selected budget savings, 33% energy subsidies or a fuel excise cut, 20% more social services and welfare and 11% income tax cuts.”
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“A national Morgan poll, conducted April 27 to May 3 from a sample of 1,681, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (down 0.5 since the April 20–26 Morgan poll), the Coalition 24% (up 1.5), One Nation 21.5% (down one), the Greens 13% (down one) and all Others 12% (up one).”
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“By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 54.5–45.5. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a one-point gain for the Coalition.”
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“Labour has dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999, but won just nine of 96 seats, with the left-wing nationalist Plaid Cymru taking 43 seats and the populist right Reform 34.”
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“In Scotland, the left-wing nationalist SNP (58 of 129 seats) and the Greens (15 seats) combined retained a clear majority, with Labour tied for second with Reform on 17 seats.”
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“In England, Labour has lost over 1,400 council seats, while Reform won over 1,400.”
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“The BBC’s Projected National Share that estimates a national vote share from council elections had Reform on 26%, the Greens 18%, Labour 17%, the Conservatives 17% and the Liberal Democrats 16%.”
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“a full distribution of preferences in Huon resulted in left-wing independent Clare Glade-Wright defeating conservative independent incumbent Dean Harriss by 52.5–47.5.”
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“Primary votes were 30.8% Harriss, 27.5% Glade-Wright, 16.7% Labor, 15.0% Greens and 10.0% combined for two other independents.”
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“At the March 21 South Australian election, eleven of the 22 upper house seats were elected using statewide proportional representation with preferences.”
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“A quota for election was one-twelfth of the vote or 8.3%.”
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“Upper house members have eight-year terms with half elected every four years.”
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“Final primary votes gave Labor 4.41 quotas, One Nation 2.93, the Liberals 2.13, the Greens 1.22, Legalise Cannabis 0.28 and Family First 0.26.”
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“Labor won five of the 11 seats (up one since 2018, the last time these seats were up), One Nation three (up three), the Liberals two (down two) and the Greens one (steady). SA-Best lost its two seats.”
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“In 2022, Labor won five seats, the Liberals four, the Greens one and One Nation one.”
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“One Nation’s winner at that election, Sarah Game, has defected.”
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“The upper house total is ten Labor out of 22, six Liberals, three One Nation, two Greens and Game.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.