One Nation surges to first on primary votes in two new polls

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Jun 02, 2026 · 1070 words · By Adrian Beaumont

Political Favorability Polling Trends Budget Impact

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What to know about Political Favorability

The article reports on four recent federal polls showing a rise in primary vote support for One Nation and a decline in favorability for the Labor government following the budget. It details specific polling data from Redbridge, YouGov, Fox & Hedgehog, and Morgan regarding primary votes, preferences, and leadership approval.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 36

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center50%

Right50%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Four federal polls have been released since Sunday.

Why it matters

One Nation has taken the primary vote lead from Labor in both the Redbridge and YouGov polls and is tied with Labor in the Morgan poll.

Common ground

Labor held a primary vote lead in Fox & Hedgehog.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Favorability story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Hanson was down one point to +8 (44% approve, 36% disapprove) and Chalmers was down five points to -17 (37% disapprove, 20% approve)?
How does this story connect Political Favorability with Polling Trends over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-to-first-on-primary-votes-in-two-n…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 36 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 26

info Single Source 4

verified Verified By Reference 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

cancel Disputed 1

check_circle Corroborated 1

schedule

Claim 1: “Hanson was down one point to +8 (44% approve, 36% disapprove) and Chalmers was down five points to -17 (37% disapprove, 20% approve).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 2: “The next federal election is not due until early 2028.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and the 'Build a Ballot' source both confirm the next Australian federal election is scheduled for 2028 (specifically by or on May 20, 2028).

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — It must be held on or before 20 May 2028. . Found this article interesting? Share it with a friend! Click to copy.
https://www.buildaballot.org.au/please-explain/when-is-the-n…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — It also lists the dates for upcoming state, territory, and local government elections. Contents. The rules 2. House of Representatives election 3. Half-Senate ...
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.…

help

Claim 3: “A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted May 25–28 from a sample of 1,005, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote... Labor 28%... the Coalition 20%... the Greens 12%... and all Others 9%.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific numbers and dates of the Redbridge and Accent Research poll.

schedule

Claim 4: “By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52.5–47.5... Labor led the Coalition by 51.5–48.5”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “By 44–30 and 45–40, respondents thought the Liberals and One Nation respectively were not ready for government.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 6: “Labor still led One Nation by respondent preferences in all four polls”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that Labor led One Nation by respondent preferences in all four polls is stated in one web search result, but not corroborated by others.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Labor still led One Nation by respondent preferences in all four polls, though only by 51–49 in Redbridge. In F&H, Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences, but led in the other polls. Mo…
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-to-first-on-pr…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 48–46, reversing a 48–47 Labor lead in May. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led the Coalition by about 51–49. In four of its l…
https://eveningreport.nz/2026/07/01/labor-gains-in-three-fur…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A late January YouGov poll gave Labor a 57–43 respondent-allocated preference lead over One Nation. Analyst Kevin Bonham has Labor vs Coalition and Labor vs One Nation two-party aggregates using 2025 …
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/one-nation-surges-to-ne…

cancel

Claim 7: “the F&H poll is Labor’s worst, with the right vote at 52%.”

DISPUTED

One source states the F&H poll is Labor's worst with the right vote at 52%. However, another source explicitly contradicts this, stating the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 49% in Fox & Hedgehog.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_po…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — One-nation conservatism, also known as one-nationism or Tory democracy, is a form of British political conservatism and a variant of paternalistic conservatism. It advocates the "preservation of estab…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-nation_conservatism

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 8: “Labor held a primary vote lead in Fox & Hedgehog.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The statement 'Labor held a primary vote lead in Fox & Hedgehog' is found in one web search result, but no other independent sources confirm this specific detail.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — 20th Century Studios, Inc., formerly Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation, is an American film production and distribution company currently owned by the Walt Disney Studios, the film studios divisi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20th_Century_Studios

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 9: “By 59–20, they did not trust the Labor government’s promise not to introduce taxes on the family home or death taxes in future budgets.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -22, with 51% disapproving and 29% approving.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “By 47–19, respondents had an unfavourable view of the federal budget.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 12: “One Nation has taken the primary vote lead from Labor in both the Redbridge and YouGov polls”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is explicitly stated in one web search result ('One Nation surges to first on primary votes in two new polls'), but other search results discuss different polling trends or do not mention this specific lead in both Redbridge and YouGov.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2025 Australian federal election was held on 3 May 2025 to elect 150 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 out of the 76 Senate seats. At the election, the Albanese government was elected t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electorate_opinion_polling_and…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The London Borough of Redbridge is a London borough established in 1965. The borough shares boundaries with the Epping Forest District in the county of Essex to the north, the London Borough of Waltha…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Borough_of_Redbridge

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 13: “Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -26 with 60% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 14: “In F&H, Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences”

CORROBORATED

Two independent web search results confirm that Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences in the Fox & Hedgehog poll (one mentions it generally, another specifies a 51-49 lead for the Coalition).

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In F&H, Labor trailed the Coalition on respondent preferences, but led in the other polls. Morgan and YouGov had polls taken immediately after the budget. One Nation has gained in both these polls fro…
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-to-first-on-pr…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In four of its last five monthly polls, Essential has had the Coalition ahead after preferences. The only other poll that gave the Coalition a lead was a late May Fox & Hedgehog poll (by 51–49). Essen…
https://eveningreport.nz/2026/07/01/labor-gains-in-three-fur…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By respondent preferences, Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation by 53-47 (steady against the Coalition and a one-point gain for One Nation). Albanese’s net favourability was down four points to…
https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/trump-s-unpopularity-shie…

info

Claim 15: “One Nation... is tied with Labor in the Morgan poll.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that One Nation is tied with Labor in the Morgan poll appears in one specific web search result, but is not corroborated by other independent sources provided.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state election was held on 21 March 2026 to elect the members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) were up for election, along with 11 of th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Australian_state_el…

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 16: “Greens leader Larissa Waters was down two points to -6, Liberal Andrew Hastie down six points to -6, Angus Taylor down two points to -4, Nationals leader Matt Canavan down two points to -4 and Pauline Hanson up one point to net zero.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 17: “By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53.5–46.5.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 18: “Labor led the Coalition by 55.5–44.5”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 19: “The right had 51% in Redbridge, 49% in YouGov and 47% in Morgan.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While some sources mention the 'right vote' generally or in other polls, none of the provided evidence confirms the specific percentages of 51% (Redbridge), 49% (YouGov), and 47% (Morgan).

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 20: “Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 41–39... He led Hanson by 47–41”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 26 to June 2 from a sample of 1,471, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote... Labor 26%... the Coalition 20%... the Greens 13%... independents 6%... and others 6%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 22: “Treasurer Jim Chalmers also crashed 13 points to -18.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “Taylor led Albanese as preferred PM by 38–36”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “A national Fox & Hedgehog poll for News Corp, conducted May 25–26 from a sample of 1,700, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote... One Nation 27%... the Coalition 25%... the Greens 10%... and all Others 9%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 26: “Taylor’s net approval was steady at net zero (29% both approving and disapproving).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 27: “By 46–31, respondents supported One Nation and the Coalition working together to form government.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 28: “A national Morgan poll, conducted May 25–31 from a sample of 1,542, gave Labor 27% of the primary vote... One Nation 27%... the Coalition 20%... the Greens 13.5%... and all Others 12.5%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 29: “By respondent preferences, Labor led both One Nation and the Coalition by just 51–49”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific 51-49 preference lead for Labor in the Redbridge poll.

schedule

Claim 30: “In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 31% (down two), Hanson 25% (up two) and Taylor 14% (steady).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 31: “Just 28% thought Labor had done enough to deserve re-election while 57% thought it was time to give someone else a go.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 32: “By 55–23, respondents thought the federal budget would be bad for the nation rather than good.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 33: “By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 51–49”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 34: “By 48–11, they thought it would be bad for them personally.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 35: “Labor led One Nation by 54–46”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 36: “Anthony Albanese’s net favourability slumped ten points to -19.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.