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One Nation gains in polls as budget is poorly received in Newspoll

The Conversation · · 1244 words · By Adrian Beaumont

The article reports on various national and state-level polls following a federal budget, detailing voting intentions and approval ratings for major political figures. It also covers the results of a state byelection in the Queensland seat of Stafford.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nation-gains-in-polls-as-budget-is-poorly-receiv…

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10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

49 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 39
info Single Source 5
help Insufficient Evidence 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
info
“One Nation is up one to three points”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results mention a 'surge' in One Nation support in post-budget polls, the specific figure of 'one to three points' is not explicitly corroborated across multiple independent sources in the provided evidence.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — More than 55,750 readers responded to four online polls as part of News Corp's budget coverage, with 50 per cent indicating they would vote One Nation, 7 per cent backing Labor and 40 per cent ...
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-budget/…
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has surged past Labor in the first major poll since negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were announced as part of the controversial 2026-27 budget.
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/federal-elec…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Signs of major improvements in One Nation's vote appeared in the final weeks of the federal election campaign. Despite this, it did not realise its best polling results on election day, with 6.4%.
https://theconversation.com/why-has-support-for-one-nation-s…
info
“their victory at the May 9 Farrer byelection”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for 'Farrer byelection' returned irrelevant results regarding shipping companies and cloud storage; no evidence was found regarding a political victory for One Nation on May 9.
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web search NEUTRAL — Mar 24, 2026 · As a leading global container shipping company, ONE offers tailored cargo shipping solutions. Explore our vast network of vessels and ports, ensuring global connectivity.
https://www.one-line.com/en
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web search NEUTRAL — Login to OneDrive with your Microsoft or Office 365 account.
https://onedrive.live.com/login/en-us/
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web search NEUTRAL — iFIBER ONE News covers all areas of Grant County. Tune in at 5:00pm each evening for the latest news from Moses Lake, Ephrata, Quincy, Warden, Soap Lake, Wilson Creek, and.
https://www.yoursourceone.com/news/
help
“The total vote for the Coalition and One Nation was up two points to 47% in both Newspoll and Resolve”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
The evidence directly contradicts the claim. One search result states that Newspoll and Resolve both had the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45%, which was 'down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve', rather than up two points to 47%.
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web search NEUTRAL — Newspoll and Resolve give Labor clear leads, and both have the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45% (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve). That’s four points lower than in De…
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — In the latest Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, the Coalition had 38% of the primary vote (down two since June), Labor 35% (down one), the Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 4% (up one). This is based…
https://www.australiantimes.co.uk/news/barnaby-joyce-scores-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Resolve does not provide a two-party estimate, but Bonham’s estimate from the primary votes was 52.5-47.5 to Labor, a three-point gain for the Coalition.
https://hashtag.net.au/the-conversation/56533-labor-still-ha…
info
“it was up three points to 51% in Freshwater”
SINGLE SOURCE
While Freshwater polls are mentioned, the specific claim that the combined Coalition/One Nation vote was 'up three points to 51%' is not found in the provided evidence.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Newspoll and Resolve give Labor clear leads, and both have the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition at 45% (down two in Newspoll and down one in Resolve). That’s four points lower than in De…
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The Daily Mail reports a Freshwater Strategy poll of 1050 respondents has Labor on 33% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 11% and One Nation on 19%, with Labor leading 53-47 on t…
https://www.pollbludger.net/
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web search NEUTRAL — A national Freshwater poll [7] for The Financial Review, conducted December 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, had the Coalition ahead by 51–49, unchanged from the November Freshwater poll [8]. Primary vot…
https://thetimes.com.au/world/37113-labor-and-albanese-end-2…
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“Angus Taylor led Anthony Albanese as preferred PM in Freshwater and Resolve”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results confirm that Angus Taylor was preferred over Anthony Albanese in the Resolve poll (33% vs 30%).
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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the member of parliament…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
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web search NEUTRAL — There is disagreement between these polls on Angus Taylor’s ratings. In Newspoll, Taylor is down six to a -13 net approval, but he’s up six to a +15 net approval in Resolve. Taylor trails Anthony Alba…
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as…
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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Albanese is no longer preferred Prime Minister according to a new poll.The Resolve poll showed Angus Taylor had 33 per cent support, compared to Anthony Albanese’s 30 per cent.
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/australian-news-and-polit…
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“Albanese retained a clear lead in Newspoll”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that while Taylor led in Resolve, he trailed Albanese in Newspoll (by nine points), meaning Albanese retained the lead in that specific poll.
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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese (born 2 March 1963) is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — There is disagreement between these polls on Angus Taylor’s ratings. In Newspoll, Taylor is down six to a -13 net approval, but he’s up six to a +15 net approval in Resolve. Taylor trails Anthony Alba…
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-turns-around-as…
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web search NEUTRAL — Prime minister presser. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s popularity has tapered. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw. Primary support for Labor also fell to 32 per cent, down from a high of 37 per cent i…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/albo-slips-poll-angus-taylor-01441…
info
“this budget is the second worst on economic impact and the third worst on personal impact”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence discusses budget polling generally but does not provide the specific historical rankings (second worst economic, third worst personal) mentioned in the claim.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leade…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_A…
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web search NEUTRAL — Budget polling: day two. No real change on voting intention from Essential Research; mediocre budget reaction results from Newspoll; state breakdowns from Ipsos.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/05/budget-polling-day-tw…
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web search NEUTRAL — Essential has tended to be worse for Labor than Newspoll since Morrison became PM. By 51-27, voters approved of the budget; the +24 net is higher than the +16 net in 2018 or +8 net in 2017.
https://theconversation.com/post-budget-poll-wrap-coalition-…
info
“Labor has narrowly held the Queensland seat of Stafford at a byelection, but there was a 4% two-party swing to the LNP”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for 'Stafford byelection' returned irrelevant results about the US Department of Labor and dictionary definitions of 'labor'.
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web search NEUTRAL — Sep 6, 2011 · The meaning of LABOR is expenditure of physical or mental effort especially when difficult or compulsory. How to use labor in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Labor.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/labor
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web search NEUTRAL — The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics.
https://www.bls.gov/
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web search NEUTRAL — Our new AI in Registered Apprenticeship Innovation Portal gives employers the tools to build an AI-ready workforce.
https://www.dol.gov/
help
“A national Newspoll, conducted May 14–17 from a sample of 1,252, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote... One Nation 27%... the Coalition 20%... the Greens 12%... and all Others 10%”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided or found in the search results to verify these specific primary vote percentages for the May 14-17 Newspoll.
help
“Labor would lead the Coalition by about 54–46 if 2025 election preference flows were applied to the primary votes”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided or found in the search results regarding 2025 preference flows or the resulting 54-46 lead for Labor.
schedule
“Albanese’s net approval was steady at -17, with 57% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied”
PENDING
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“Taylor’s net approval was up one point to -12 (48% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied)”
PENDING
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“Albanese led Taylor as better PM by 46–38”
PENDING
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“This budget’s economic net score of -25 (47% bad, 22% good) is the second worst, behind only 1993’s -42”
PENDING
schedule
“The personal impact net score of -41 (52% worse off, 11% better off) was the third worst, behind -70 in 1993 and -64 in 2014”
PENDING
schedule
“by 47–39 respondents thought the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget”
PENDING
schedule
“By 48–9, respondents thought this budget would make inflation worse rather than better”
PENDING
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“By 39–7, they thought they would pay more tax rather than less”
PENDING
schedule
“A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 13–16 from a sample of 1,800, gave Labor 29%... One Nation 24%... the Coalition 23%... the Greens 12%... independents 7%... and others 5%”
PENDING
schedule
“Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes gives Labor about a 52.5–47.5 lead over the Coalition”
PENDING
schedule
“Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -22, with 56% giving him a poor rating and 34% a good rating”
PENDING
schedule
“Taylor’s net approval was down seven points to +8 (37% good, 29% poor)”
PENDING
schedule
“Taylor led Albanese as preferred PM by 33–30”
PENDING
schedule
“Pauline Hanson’s net likeability was up six points to +12, Taylor’s was down five points to +11, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ was down nine points to -9 and Albanese’s was down one point to -13”
PENDING
schedule
“By 35–24, respondents thought the budget would be bad for them personally”
PENDING
schedule
“By 36–21, they supported the changes to the capital gains tax”
PENDING
schedule
“By 35–21, they supported the changes to negative gearing and by 34–21 they supported the changes to family trusts”
PENDING
schedule
“A national Freshwater poll for News Corp, conducted May 13–15 from a sample of 1,384, gave Labor 29%... One Nation 26%... the Coalition 25%... the Greens 11%... and all Others 9%”
PENDING
schedule
“By respondent preferences, Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50–50”
PENDING
schedule
“Albanese’s net favourability slumped ten points to -19, while Taylor’s was down one point to +9”
PENDING
schedule
“Taylor led Albanese by 41–40 as preferred PM”
PENDING
schedule
“On the budget, by 47–18, respondents were dissatisfied with the overall budget”
PENDING
schedule
“By 39–25, they did not think the changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing would meaningfully improve housing affordability”
PENDING
schedule
“Changes to capital gains tax were opposed by 38–31”
PENDING
schedule
“By 46–21, respondents thought the budget would worsen rather than improve the economy”
PENDING
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“On the negative gearing changes, 54% said the government broke a promise and should have taken it to an election first, 29% that they broke a promise but governments should be free to adapt policy between elections and 17% said they hadn’t broken a promise”
PENDING
schedule
“The Financial Review reported a national Wolf and Smith poll that was conducted May 13 from a sample of 1,002”
PENDING
schedule
“By 38–26, respondents supported the capital gains tax changes and by 41–27 they supported the negative gearing changes”
PENDING
schedule
“The impact of the changes was regarded as positive by 37–20 on those who own their home outright, but negative for five other groups: young people (37–34), those looking to buy a home (38–34), the whole country (40–27), investors (47–21), those paying a mortgage (43–16) and renters (45–16)”
PENDING
schedule
“A national Morgan SMS poll, conducted May 13–14 from a sample of 2,348, gave One Nation 32% of the primary vote, Labor 28.5%, the Coalition 16.5%, the Greens 11.5% and all Others 11.5%”
PENDING
schedule
“By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 51–49 and the Coalition by 55–45”
PENDING
schedule
“By 59–40, respondents disapproved of Albanese’s performance”
PENDING
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“By 57–42.5, they disapproved of Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer”
PENDING
schedule
“A byelection occurred in the Queensland state seat of Stafford on Saturday, after the death of former Labor MP Jimmy Sullivan”
PENDING
schedule
“Jimmy Sullivan (who had been expelled by Labor in May 2025 over domestic violence issues)”
PENDING
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“The ABC’s figures have Labor retaining by 51.2–48.8 against the Liberal National Party (LNP), a 4.1% swing to the LNP since the 2024 election”
PENDING
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“Current primary votes are 40.4% LNP (up 2.3%), 30.7% Labor (down 8.1%), 14.6% Greens (down 3.5%), 3.8% for independent Liam Parry... and 3.0% Legalise Cannabis”
PENDING
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“One Nation didn’t contest after getting 3.2% in 2024”
PENDING
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“The Poll Bludger said Labor won Greens preferences by 86–14, Parry’s preferences by 82–18 and Legalise Cannabis preferences by 60–40”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.