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One absurd raccoon army question just exposed a hidden flaw in how conspiracy beliefs get counted

Phys · · 616 words · By Macquarie University
Psychology of Conspiracy Beliefs Scientific Research Methodology Survey Accuracy

Researchers from Macquarie University used a fake conspiracy theory about a raccoon army to demonstrate that some survey respondents answer insincerely. The study suggests that the prevalence of conspiracy belief in public opinion polls may be overestimated due to trolling or joking.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-absurd-raccoon-army-exposed-hidden.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 8
schedule Pending 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
info
“Findings from a Macquarie University study suggest many opinion poll surveys make belief in conspiracies look more common than it really is because some anonymous respondents don't answer truthfully, instead trolling, joking or not taking questions seriously.”
SINGLE SOURCE
One web result mentions 'The role of insincere responding in research on conspiracy beliefs' which aligns with the theme of the claim, but the provided evidence does not explicitly detail the Macquarie University study's findings or the specific mechanism of trolling/joking to the extent required for corroboration.
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web search NEUTRAL — Macquarie University is a place of pioneering minds, breaking free of conventions. Discover our story as one of the global leaders in tertiary education.
https://www.mq.edu.au/
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web search NEUTRAL — UPDATE #1: I have phoned and confirmed with Macquarie’s switchboard that Professor Murry Salby is no longer working there. I have written to both Murry Salby and to several people at Macquarie Univers…
https://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/macquarie-university-sabot…
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web search NEUTRAL — According to the study, people basically use social media in two ways: prosocial, which means that you’re using it to make connections and maintain relationships, or antisocial, which means you’re usi…
https://www.scarymommy.com/study-reveals-internet-trolls-mos…
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“The study is published in the journal Collabra: Psychology.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Evidence confirms that Collabra: Psychology is a journal, but there is no direct evidence in the provided search results linking the specific Macquarie University study to this journal.
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web search NEUTRAL — Macquarie University is a place of pioneering minds, breaking free of conventions. Discover our story as one of the global leaders in tertiary education.
https://www.mq.edu.au/
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web search NEUTRAL — Collabra: Psychology, the official journal of the Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science, is a mission-driven Open Access (OA) journal from the University of California Press that shares…
https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra
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web search NEUTRAL — Collabra: Psychology. Collabra: Psychology. Published by University of California Press and The Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science (SIPS). Online ISSN: 2474-7394.
https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Collabra-Psychology-247…
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“the Macquarie researchers asked 1,044 Australians to rate each of seven conspiracy theories as true or false.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence contains general information about Macquarie University but no data regarding a survey of 1,044 Australians on seven conspiracy theories.
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web search NEUTRAL — Macquarie University is a place of pioneering minds, breaking free of conventions. Discover our story as one of the global leaders in tertiary education.
https://www.mq.edu.au/
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web search NEUTRAL — Location: Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. Dates: August 4 – August 17, 2025 (Check-in: August 2, Check-out: August 17). Who Can Apply? 3rd or 4th-year BBA students (2-4 students) + 1 Professi…
https://institutions.northsouth.edu/oea/study-tour-2025-at-m…
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web search NEUTRAL — study led by researchers of Washington State University.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19368623.2024.2…
info
“Six of these conspiracy theories were pre-existing and well aired, but one was invented by the research team and farcically bizarre: 'The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries.'”
SINGLE SOURCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding a fabricated theory about genetically engineered raccoons from the Canadian Armed Forces.
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web search NEUTRAL — Another conspiracy theory is that Holt was actually a spy for the Chinese government (under both the Nationalist and Communist governments) ever since he began studying at the University of Melbourne …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conspiracy_theories
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web search NEUTRAL — The fisher, neyman-pearson theories of testing hypotheses: one theory or two?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1993.10…
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web search NEUTRAL — Although conspiracy theories about vaccines gained particular prominence with the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been there for years. Vaccine skeptics have advanced several theories claiming they are h…
https://www.discoverwalks.com/blog/world/15-famous-popular-c…
info
“An astonishing 10% of respondents said they rated the raccoon army theory as 'probably true' or 'definitely true'”
SINGLE SOURCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding the 10% statistic for the raccoon army theory.
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web search NEUTRAL — Examining the prevalence and predictors of belief in conspiracy theories when accounting for insincerity. Recent research suggests that some survey respondents who endorse conspiracy theories are resp…
https://rr.peercommunityin.org/articles/rec?id=975
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web search NEUTRAL — Ответ: 1. True 2. False 3. True 4. True 5. False.
https://www.euroki.org/koza/read-the-text-and-and-mark-the-s…
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web search NEUTRAL — while it’s true that partisanship matters.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136466132…
info
“69% of those who endorsed the raccoon theory also agreed that 'A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles has taken control of parts of the Australian federal government and mainstream Australian media,' compared to just 13% of survey respondents overall.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for '69' are irrelevant (referring to music or sex positions) and do not mention the conspiracy theory or the statistics provided in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — The 69'ers, an Australian rock, pop, jug and country band formed in 1969.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/69
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web search NEUTRAL — The document discusses the 69 sex position, highlighting its polarizing nature and the intimacy it offers partners. It provides various variations of the position, including classic, inverted, swingin…
https://www.scribd.com/document/905885236/The-10-Best-69-Sex…
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web search NEUTRAL — Define 69 (sex position). 69 (sex position) synonyms, 69 (sex position) pronunciation, 69 (sex position) translation, English dictionary definition of 69 (sex position). n a sexual activity in which t…
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/69+(sex+position)
info
“Analysis showed those who accepted the raccoon claim also endorsed an average of four of the six pre-existing conspiracy theories; those who rejected the raccoon story on average endorsed only one or none of the six other conspiracies.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results provide general definitions of 'respondent' but no specific data from the Macquarie study regarding the endorsement of other conspiracies.
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web search NEUTRAL — In cross-cultural communication, the second person responding to the meaning or message from an original source which has been contextualised or decoded for the understanding of respondents as recipie…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respondent
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web search NEUTRAL — Oct 15, 2025 · In the context of research, a respondent refers to the individual who participates in a research by completing surveys, questionnaires, interviews, or other data collection tools. They …
https://www.toolshero.com/research/respondents/
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 2, 2026 · Noun respondent (plural respondents) One who responds; one who replies. (law) A defendant, especially in a case instituted by a petition or in appellate and divorce proceedings. A person…
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/respondent
info
“the group of 'Raccoon army believers' were also far more likely (56% versus 7% overall) to agree with both conflicting coronavirus conspiracy theories.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While search results discuss coronavirus theories generally, there is no mention of the specific 56% vs 7% statistic linked to 'raccoon army believers'.
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web search NEUTRAL — Two new studies provide more evidence that the coronavirus pandemic originated in a Wuhan, China market where live animals were sold – further bolstering the theory that the virus emerged in the wild …
https://www.yahoo.com/news/studies-bolster-theory-coronaviru…
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web search NEUTRAL — coronavirus-testing “There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it …
https://winteroak.org.uk/2020/03/27/coronavirus-thoughtcrime…
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web search NEUTRAL — President Trump has dismissed the coronavirus as a media plot to make him look bad. In private, his theories are even crazier. The Washington Post reports on what Trump is telling friends behind close…
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trumps-private-coron…
help
“the results of a 2013 survey were widely reported in the media as indicating that 12 million Americans endorsed the idea that shape-shifting lizard people actually control human societies and hold political power.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for the 2013 survey regarding lizard people.
help
“13% of participants in the Macquarie research admitted in response to a follow-up question that they had answered earlier questions randomly or insincerely”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for the 13% admission of insincere responding in the Macquarie research.
schedule
“A similar follow-up study in New Zealand, published in Royal Society Open Science, has broadly replicated the Australian findings.”
PENDING
schedule
“Robert M. Ross et al, Do People Sincerely Believe Conspiracy Theories That They Endorse?, Collabra: Psychology (2026). DOI: 10.1525/collabra.159253”
PENDING
schedule
“Matt Williams et al, Do you really believe that? Examining the prevalence and predictors of belief in conspiracy theories when accounting for insincerity, Royal Society Open Science (2026). DOI: 10.1098/rsos.260163”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.