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Old journals unlock monthly climate shifts behind Japan's 1830s famine

Phys · · 735 words · By Research Organization; Systems

Researchers have developed a new framework to analyze historical weather data from 19th-century Japanese diaries to better understand the Tenpō Famine of the 1830s. By reconstructing monthly solar radiation patterns, the study identifies a correlation between reduced solar radiation in 1836 and a subsequent rapid increase in rice prices.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-journals-monthly-climate-shifts-japan.html

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Propaganda Score
confidence: 100%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 5
schedule Pending 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
verified
“The Tenpō Famine of the 1830s was one of the worst in Japanese history”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and other web sources confirm the Tenpō famine was a major event in Japan, describing it as the 'Great Tenpō Famine' and noting its devastating impact on the population.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Tenpō famine increased the number of beggars throughout northern Japan, who were considered more lawless and unorderly than the beggars seen during the Tenmei famine in the 1780s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenpō_famine
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web search NEUTRAL — The remaining eight, including the warning monument mentioned at the beginning of this article, record the devastation caused by the Tenpō famine. Takase’s research has also turned up five such monume…
https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/c13503/
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web search NEUTRAL — Causes of the Great Tenpō Famine. The Great Tenpō Famine originated from a series of anomalous weather events beginning in 1833, characterized by prolonged cold spells that disrupted rice cultivation …
https://grokipedia.com/page/Tenpō
info
“The results were published in Scientific Reports.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results discuss the research on solar radiation and the Tenpō famine, none of the provided snippets explicitly name 'Scientific Reports' as the publishing journal.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Tenpō famine, also known as the Great Tenpō famine, was a famine that affected Japan during the Edo period. Considered to have lasted from 1833 to 1837, it was named after the Tenpō era, during th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenpō_famine
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web search NEUTRAL — Specifically, we reconstructed solar radiation from 1821 to 1850 using descriptions from 18 historical diaries. This represents a novel approach to analyzing climatic impacts on agriculture and the ec…
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-40316-w?error=coo…
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web search NEUTRAL — Most research on the Tenpō Famine only conducts qualitative analyses, and the only study that uses paleoclimatic and quantitative economic data is Hamano [10]. At a one-year resolution, he examined th…
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-7136394/v1
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“Mika Ichino, a then-project assistant professor at the Research Organization of Information and Systems in Tokyo, Japan”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources from the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS) and the Institute of Statistical Mathematics identify Mika Ichino as a Project Assistant Professor.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS). Mika Ichino.JAMSTEC collaborates with the University of Tokyo, the main contractor of the project. It is a five-year project until March 2011.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mika-Ichino
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web search NEUTRAL — Research Organaization of Information and Systems, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Contact. Site Map.Prof. Mika ICHINO, Project Assist.
https://www.ism.ac.jp/souran-en/index_e.html
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web search NEUTRAL — Project Assistant Professor. ICHINO, Mika.Research Coordinator/Associate Professor. MURAKAMI, Daisuke. Spatial data analysis, Geographic Information System, Mining of urban environmental data.
https://ds.rois.ac.jp/en_koubo/en_2025/en_researchers
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“In this study, we reconstructed monthly solar radiation from 18 historical diaries (1821–1850) and compared it with monthly rice price data in Osaka.”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web results describe the reconstruction of monthly solar radiation from historical diaries for the period 1821-1850 to analyze climatic impacts.
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web search NEUTRAL — [8] reconstructed monthly solar radiation data for 1821–1850 to address these limitations based on historical weather records. Their study produced year-round data from 18 locations across Japan, enab…
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-7136394/v1
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web search NEUTRAL — Global solar radiation during the Little Ice Age, especially for the period 1720-1902, is estimated based on the daily weather records of old diaries in Japan. This study develops and constructs a met…
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252976381_Construct…
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web search NEUTRAL — Solar Power » Radiation. Solar Energy Home.Under these circumstances, the optimal tilt angle would be around 40° - 16% up from the horizontal. A panel mounted on a wall (90°) would receive 18% less ir…
https://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/radiation/tiltedsurfa…
info
“Researchers used the Historical Weather Database”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results mention general weather databases (Weather Spark, NCEI), but do not specifically confirm that the researchers used a specific entity called 'the Historical Weather Database' for this study.
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web search NEUTRAL — Past and Historical Weather. Weather Spark gives you access to the past weather for a large, global network of weather stations. Our repository has weather history, temperature history and historical …
https://weatherspark.com/history
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web search NEUTRAL — Fire Weather. Sunrise/Sunset. Long Range Forecasts.Past Weather. Astronomical Data.
https://www.weather.gov/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Search for recent weather data in your area. Weather forecasts are available through the National Weather Service.We archive over 229 terabytes of data each month from over 130 observing platforms.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/
info
“They developed a baseline of typical solar patterns at the same locations from 1981 to 2010.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim discusses solar wind and general solar energy, but does not mention the specific 1981-2010 baseline used by the researchers in the study.
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web search NEUTRAL — Solar wind observed by the Parker Solar Probe, 2018.Scientists hope to gain perspective on the heliopause from data acquired through the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, launched in Octo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind
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web search NEUTRAL — What are the common uses of solar energy? Solar energy is commonly used for solar water heaters and house heating. The heat from solar ponds enables the production of chemicals, food, textiles, warm g…
https://www.britannica.com/science/solar-energy
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web search NEUTRAL — To study this relationship, the researchers deployed a machine-learning algorithm on large sets of data from private solar farms. “This was a huge, collaborative effort,” Thushara Gunda, one of the pa…
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/09/the-stormy-relations…
info
“In 1836, solar radiation in July and August was about 10% below normal in central Japan”
SINGLE SOURCE
One PDF snippet mentions comparing estimated monthly means of global solar radiation in 1836 to a 30-year average, but the specific '10% below normal' figure is not explicitly detailed in the provided snippets.
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web search NEUTRAL — The estimated monthly means of global solar radiation in 1836 are compared to average estimations for 30 years (1821⊖1850) , including the 1830s, at 11 points in Japan where data are generally availab…
https://www.academia.edu/117697340/Fluctuations_of_Global_So…
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web search NEUTRAL — The site owner hides the web page description.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13658816.2024.2…
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web search NEUTRAL — Dario Amodei thinks we are just a few years away from “a country of geniuses in a data center”. In this episode, we discuss what to make of the scaling hypot...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1E9IZfvGMA
info
“rice prices rose rapidly, eventually to three to four times their typical level in the next summer.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim is completely irrelevant (discussing Milankovitch cycles, grammar, and adult content) and does not mention rice prices.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Over time, the pull of gravity from our solar system’s two largest gas giant planets, Jupiter and Saturn, causes the shape of Earth’s orbit to vary from nearly circular to slightly elliptical. Eccentr…
https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/mila…
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web search NEUTRAL — 2. This is for you to decide. 3. The plan of our work will be discussed at the meeting to be held on May 25. 4. To walk in the garden was a pleasure. 5. Jane remembered to have been told a lot about M…
https://www.euroki.org/koza/make-infinitives-add-to-or-gerun…
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web search NEUTRAL — Jean, Rissa May, Robin Coffins, Romi Rain, Rose Carter, Roxie Sinner, Ruby Sinclaire, Rusty Nails, Ryan Keely, Ryan Reid, Ryan Ruby, Sarah Harlow, Sarina Havok, Sage Hunter, Sage Ronx, Scarlet Skies, …
https://vk.com/video-224311967_456240674
help
“Researchers found a significant reduction in solar radiation in the summer of 1836, especially in central Japan.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.
help
“The poor summer weather conditions lasted through August of 1838.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.
schedule
“From August 1836 until September 1837, rice prices were significantly higher than in a typical year.”
PENDING
schedule
“Other contributors include Kooiti Masuda at Rissho University, Takehiko Mikami at Tokyo Metropolitan University, and Yasuo Takatsuki at Kobe University.”
PENDING
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“Mika Ichino et al, Unusual solar radiation and its impact on the Japanese rice market during the 1830s famine, Scientific Reports (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-40316-w”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.