Oil shortages escalate from wars in Iran and Ukraine, with few signs of relief

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 04, 2026 · 1286 words · By Amy Myers Jaffe

Energy security Geopolitical Instability Drone Warfare

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What to know about Energy security

The article discusses the impact of drone warfare on global energy infrastructure, specifically citing conflicts involving Russia, Ukraine, and Iran. It examines the resulting disruptions to oil refining and shipping lanes, while exploring potential mitigations through renewable energy and increased production in countries like Brazil and the US.

Propaganda risk 30%

Claims checked 16

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center83%

Right17%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The global energy crisis triggered by two wars is set to worsen, as Ukraine pummels Russia’s refining industry and Iranian attacks continue on Middle Eastern oil production and refining.

Why it matters

Further, the nature of the destruction and the growing number of fronts and warring parties involved may herald a new era of extended vulnerability for countries that depend on imports for their energy.

Common ground

Throughout most of modern history, wars have targeted energy infrastructure, including oil wells, refineries, pipelines, export terminals and power plants.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What terms are actually in the Iran proposal, and which side would have to compromise first?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that more than 1.2 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity across the region is out of operation due to physical damage, according to J.P. Morgan?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/oil-shortages-escalate-from-wars-in-iran-and-ukraine…

analyticsAnalysis

30%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Appeal to Fear 70% confidence

Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 16 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 6

check_circle Corroborated 4

verified Verified By Reference 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 1

cancel Disputed 1

verified

Claim 1: “more than 1.2 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity across the region is out of operation due to physical damage, according to J.P. Morgan”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While web results mention refining capacity losses in the region (IEA mentions 3 million, another source mentions 8-10 million), none of the provided evidence attributes a specific figure of '1.2 million barrels per day' to J.P. Morgan.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — John Pierpont Morgan Sr. (April 17, 1837 – March 31, 1913) was an American financier and investment banker who dominated corporate finance on Wall Street throughout the Gilded Age and Progressive Era…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._P._Morgan

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (stylized as JPMorganChase) is an American multinational banking institution headquartered in New York City and incorporated in Delaware. It is the largest bank in the United Stat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Morgan Stanley is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered at 1585 Broadway in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. With offices in 42 countries and more tha…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan_Stanley

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 2: “Ukraine’s mastery of long-range drones has resulted in successful bombing of over 11 major Russian refining complexes”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific claim that 'over 11 major Russian refining complexes' were bombed is found in one specific source (Symplexia Labs). Other sources confirm the general campaign of drone strikes on refineries but do not provide the specific count of 11+.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 24 February 2022, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting the current phase of the war, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. By Apri…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine. It then supported Russian separatist armed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the existing war between the two countries that began when Ru…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_(2022–pres…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “separatists in Colombia used drones to attack oil production equipment in late July”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 4: “Houthi separatists in Yemen used aerial drones to close off the southern end of the Red Sea in the early 2020s”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute this claim.

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Claim 5: “the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the flow of about 20% of the world’s supply of liquefied petroleum gas”

CORROBORATED

Two independent sources (Office of... and IEA) confirm that approximately 19-20% of global LNG/LPG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

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web search NEUTRAL — LNG stands for Liquefied Natural Gas. Natural gas is cooled to a temperature of -162°C. Upon cooling, the gas becomes liquid. When gas becomes liquid, its volume reduces by 600 times, meaning it takes…
https://www.newscrab.com/news/the-hormuz-crisis-disrupted-lp…

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web search NEUTRAL — “Oil and natural gas are part of the cost structure for an enormous range of goods.” About 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the waterway linking the Persian Gulf to world mark…
https://twofactor.oit.gatech.edu/index.php/why-strait-hormuz…

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web search NEUTRAL — Natural gas. About 93% of Qatar’s and 96% of the UAE’s LNG exports transit through the Strait, representing 19% of global LNG trade.
https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-respons…

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Claim 6: “in Brazil, production by government-owned oil company Petrobras is up 14% over 2025 levels”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “the attacks have also led Russia to ban diesel fuel exports – which, before 2022, supplied half of Europe’s diesel”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources (OilPrice.com and LinkedIn) confirm that Russia banned diesel exports to secure domestic supply following drone strikes.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — diesel nossle 1200x810. (Reuters) – U.S. and European diesel prices rose sharply on Monday after attacks on refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia added to supply disruptions, raising concerns for farm…
https://energynow.com/2026/08/diesel-prices-surge-on-tighten…

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web search NEUTRAL — 78.50.Russia banned diesel exports earlier this year to secure more supply for the domestic market amid the drone strikes, which aggravated a supply tightening caused by refinery damages in the Middle…
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Im…

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web search NEUTRAL — - Emergency Measures: Russia has banned diesel fuel exports and resorted to emergency measures, importing a record 141,000 tons of gasoline from Belarus in June — a 141-fold increase year-over-year. h…
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/roman-sheremeta-14972a50_russ…

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Claim 8: “on July 27, drones reportedly launched from southern Iraq by Iranian-aligned militants hit crude processing towers at the critical Saudi oil production hub of Abqaiq”

CORROBORATED

The claim is explicitly confirmed by two independent web sources: JINSA and pennlive.com, both stating that on July 27, Iranian proxies in Iraq launched drones hitting the Abqaiq oil processing facility.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a proxy war over influence in the Middle East and other regions of the Muslim world. The two countries have provided varying degrees of support to opposing sides i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Saudi_Arabia_proxy_war

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of wars involving the Islamic Republic of Iran, excluding its predecessor states. It is an unfinished historical overview.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Iran_(a…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Red Sea crisis is an ongoing armed conflict and maritime crisis instigated by the Houthis, an armed group in Yemen. The Houthis began launching missiles and armed drones at Israel in response to t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 9: “Chinese petrochemical firms are also buying ethane from the U.S. to replace cut-off supplies from the Middle East”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “Goldman Sachs is estimating that globally, the refining deficit... totals 6.5 million barrels a day”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 11: “on July 30, drone attacks on an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean Sea signaled that another area might be vulnerable”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources (UPI and other web search results) confirm that on July 30, a drone attack hit the Mediterranean port of Damietta in Egypt, setting two ships on fire.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Events in the year 2026 in Egypt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_Egypt

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Egyptian Air Force (EAF) (Egyptian Arabic: القوات الجوية المصرية, romanized: El Qūwāt El Gawīyä El Maṣrīya) is the aviation branch of the Egyptian Armed Forces that is responsible for all airborne…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Air_Force

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 12: “Venezuelan oil production has risen from 937,000 barrels a day in 2025 to 1.2 million barrels a day in mid-2026”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

cancel

Claim 13: “Estimates vary from somewhere between 30% and 50% to as high as 60% of the nation’s refining capacity [knocked out]”

DISPUTED

Evidence provides conflicting estimates: one source mentions 'one-fifth' (20%), another mentions '20-40% at peaks', while the claim suggests '30% to 60%'. The figures vary significantly across sources.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Due to Ukrainian strikes Russia has lost basically one-fifth of its refining capacity, from “about 5.2 million barrels a day before the war to 3.8 million now,” the “lowest level in 21 years,” accordi…
https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report…

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web search NEUTRAL — Russian refining runs have fallen to multi-decade lows—estimates range from 3.6–4.0 million b/d at troughs, with 20–40% of capacity affected at peaks. Gasoline and diesel shortages have persisted for …
https://energynewsbeat.co/crude-oil/can-brent-hit-100-as-hor…

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web search NEUTRAL — Is Russia losing refineries ? Researched on January 14, 2026.How much spare refining capacity does Russia have and where is it located? What technical parts and systems are most constricted by sanctio…
https://factually.co/fact-checks/military/is-russia-losing-r…

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Claim 14: “Seaborne drones launched by Ukraine in the Black Sea have at least temporarily blocked most crude oil exports from Kazakhstan”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute this claim.

schedule

Claim 15: “Since the Iran war started, China’s imports of crude oil and petroleum-related products have dropped by about 3.6 million barrels per day”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 16: “Saudi Arabia has depended on the Mediterranean for its oil exports, sending 5 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia confirms the existence and function of the SUMED pipeline as a route from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean for oil exports, though the specific '5 million barrels a day' figure is not explicitly detailed in the provided snippets, the infrastructure is verified.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Bab-el-Mandeb is a strait and a major global chokepoint between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the In…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Suez Crisis, also known as the second Arab–Israeli war, the Tripartite Aggression in the Arab world and the Sinai War in Israel, was a British–French–Israeli invasion of Egypt in 1956. Israel inva…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sumed Pipeline (also known as the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Egypt, running from the Ain Sokhna terminal in the Gulf of Suez, the northernmost terminus of the Red Sea, to o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumed_pipeline

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.