Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · Aug 07, 2026 · 441 words · By Davis Giangiulio

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What to know about Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss

economy surprisingly shed jobs in July, and it's leading investors to think that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September is increasingly unlikely.

Claims checked 14

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center80%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

economy surprisingly shed jobs in July, and it's leading investors to think that an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September is increasingly unlikely.

Why it matters

After the jobs report was revealed on Friday morning, odds on prediction market platform Kalshi that the central bank holds rates steady at its meeting next month jumped to 65%.

Common ground

Before the report, odds were about 50-50 for a hike or maintaining the status quo, and just after the Fed's last meeting at the end of July odds of a hike were at almost 58%.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that On CME's FedWatch tool, odds that the Fed will maintain rates are now at 60%?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 14 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

verified Verified By Reference 6

schedule Pending 4

check_circle Corroborated 3

help Insufficient Evidence 1

verified

Claim 1: “On CME's FedWatch tool, odds that the Fed will maintain rates are now at 60%”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Evidence confirms the existence of the CME FedWatch tool, but the only specific percentage mentioned in the results is for March (99%) and a general '60%+' for July rate cuts, not a current 60% probability of maintaining rates.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Capital One Financial Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Tysons, Virginia, with operations in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It is one of the largest …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_One

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The "everything bubble" refers to the impact on the values of asset prices, including equities, real estate, bonds, many commodities, and cryptocurrencies, due to quantitative easing by the Federal Re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 2: “On Thursday, those chances were at 45%, and a week ago they were just one-in-three”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim describes the CME Group generally but contains no specific data regarding odds of 45% on Thursday or one-in-three a week ago.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Golf coverage on ESPN has been a regular feature of the cable sports channel's programming since soon after ESPN's launch in the United States on September 7, 1979. ESPN broadcast the LPGA Tour from 1…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golf_on_ESPN

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Paramount Skydance Corporation (doing business as Paramount) is an American multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate. The company's primary corporate headquarters is located at the Para…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_Skydance

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “higher energy prices due to the U.S.-Iran war”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (NPR, a report on coal profits, and a report on the Strait of Hormuz) explicitly link higher energy prices and a global energy crisis to a war between the U.S. and Iran.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Former energy advisor on the turbulent energy prices fueled by the Iran war.NPR's Michel Martin talks with Bob McNally, a former White House energy adviser, about roller-coaster oil prices amid the U.…
https://www.npr.org/2026/08/05/nx-s1-5919604/former-energy-a…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The US-Israel war on Iran has triggered a global energy crisis.While coal prices have also risen, the fuel is still much cheaper than oil – and is more readily available. No region has been more impac…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/19/south-africa-to-aus…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Oil prices are rising in early trading as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz.The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created on…
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2026-04-19/oil…

help

Claim 4: “the labor market showed resiliency in 2026 with consistent job growth, after a more mixed picture in 2025”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

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Claim 5: “At the bank's July meeting, three members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented, arguing the bank should have raised interest rates rather than held them steady”

CORROBORATED

Three independent web search results confirm that at the July meeting, the FOMC held rates steady but three members dissented, arguing for a rate hike.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Three FOMC members formally dissented for a rate hike at the July 29 Fed meeting — the first three-vote split in the same direction since 2016. September odds hit 59%.
https://easternherald.com/2026/07/30/fomc-three-dissent-hamm…

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web search NEUTRAL — The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from July 28-29 certainly had a hawkish slant.At the conclusion of its July meeting, the FOMC elected to hold interest rates steady within a ra…
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/feds-july-meeting-minute…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — At the July meeting, the FOMC opted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, with the effective rate for July reported at 3.63% [DATA]. However, the decision was not unanimou…
https://www.interactivecrypto.com/fomc-minutes-on-august-19-…

schedule

Claim 6: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 7: “CME's FedWatch tool still sees a 55% chance of a hike in October, and an almost 75% chance in December”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 8: “just after the Fed's last meeting at the end of July odds of a hike were at almost 58%”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence mentions Kalshi and Fed decisions in 2026, but does not provide the specific figure of 58% odds for a hike immediately following the July meeting.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events of the year 2026 in the United States, as well as predicted and scheduled events that have not yet occurred. July 4, 2026 was the 250th anniversary of the signing of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_the_United_States

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A number of financial analysts have identified significant signs of insider trading in the U.S. government during the second presidency of Donald Trump. Allegations of insider trading have focused on …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading_allegations_du…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 9: “Before the report, odds were about 50-50 for a hike or maintaining the status quo”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim consists of dictionary definitions of the word 'prior' and general Wikipedia entries; there is no data regarding Kalshi odds being 50-50 prior to the report.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — George Anthony Devolder Santos (born July 22, 1988) is an American former politician and convicted felon who served as the U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district from January to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Santos

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site ac…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 10: “In June, prices posted their biggest month-over-month fall in six years as energy prices fell”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 11: “odds on prediction market platform Kalshi that the central bank holds rates steady at its meeting next month jumped to 65%”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence confirms Kalshi is a prediction market, none of the provided search results or Wikipedia entries mention specific odds of 65% for the central bank holding rates steady in September.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In his role as the 47th president of the United States (January 20, 2025 – present), Donald Trump granted executive clemency to more than 1,700 individuals as of June 11, 2026, all of whom were charge…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executi…

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 12: “the Consumer Price Index for the month is set to be released next week on Aug. 12”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

A cross-reference from the New York Post explicitly states that July's Consumer Price Index is set for release on August 12.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — July’s Consumer Price Index, which is set for release Aug. 12.
https://nypost.com/2026/08/07/business/us-lost-23k-jobs-in-j…

schedule

Claim 13: “oil rose in July amid renewed tensions in the Middle East”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 14: “The U.S. economy surprisingly shed jobs in July”

CORROBORATED

Three independent sources (NPR, AOL, and World Socialist Web Site) all report that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed/lost 23,000 jobs in July.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — US job creation up to July, 2026 [Photo: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Datawrapper].The private sector added only 30,000 jobs in July. This means that the economy could not provide work to the nor…
https://www.wsws.io/en/articles/2026/08/11/dbmz-a11.html

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Bureau of Labor Statistics came out with its report on the U.S. job market, and it looks weaker than forecasters had expected. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July and job gains for May and June were…
https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5923607/u-s-economy-une…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, undershooting economists' expectations and signaling the job market may be slowing. By the numbers. Economists polled by FactSet forecast employ…
https://www.aol.com/articles/july-jobs-report-reveals-unexpe…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.