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New mathematical model predicts global population crash by 2064

Phys · · 764 words · By Alessio Zaccone
Environmental Crisis Population Dynamics Mathematical Modeling
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What to know

Professor Alessio Zaccone describes a new nonlinear mathematical model that analyzes human population growth over 12,000 years. The study explores various scenarios, including a hypothetical population decline by 2064 if Earth's carrying capacity were to drop significantly due to environmental crises.

Propaganda risk 10%
Claims checked 12
Techniques found 1
Topics 3

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What happened

May 25, 2026 dialog New mathematical model predicts global population crash by 2064 Sadie Harley Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor In a new open-access study that I published with my late colleague Kostya Trachenko from Queen Mary University of…

Why it matters

The research, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, introduces a nonlinear "rate-feedback" model for global population growth that I originally worked out with Trachenko in a different context, that is, the physics of disordered materials such…

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Professor Alessio Zaccone describes a new nonlinear mathematical model that analyzes human population growth over 12,000 years. The study explores various scenarios, including a hypothetical population decline by 2064 if Earth's carrying capacity were to drop significantly due to environmental crises.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-mathematical-global-population.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

12 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 4
verified Verified By Reference 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
schedule Pending 2
info Single Source 1
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“In a new open-access study that I published with my late colleague Kostya Trachenko from Queen Mary University of London, I propose a surprisingly simple nonlinear mathematical equation that unifies 12,000 years of human population growth”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm a nonlinear equation describing ~12,000 years of global population dynamics and a new model predicting a population crash, attributed to the research of Zaccone and Trachenko.
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web search NEUTRAL — Angelo Alessio (born 1965), Italian football coach Ángela Alessio Robles (1917–2004), Mexican civil engineer and town planner Carlo Luciano Alessio (1919–2006), Italian mycologist Harry Alessio (1895–…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alessio
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web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · Alessio is a boy's name of Italian origin meaning "defender". Alessio is the 867 ranked male name by popularity.
https://nameberry.com/b/boy-baby-name-alessio
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web search NEUTRAL — Alessio - To Giuro Ca' Te Sposo (Video Ufficiale 2022) Jhosef & Giusy Attanasio - "Me A Murì Tu" (Official Video 2026) Kekko Dany feat Giusy Attanasio Pronto Amore (Official Video 2025)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ct9BjBVzXyw
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“The research, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, introduces a nonlinear "rate-feedback" model for global population growth”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results explicitly mention that the research introducing the nonlinear 'rate-feedback' model was published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.
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web search NEUTRAL — It focuses on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
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web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · A nonlinear equation describes ∼ 12,000 years of global population dynamics. •. Model unifies exponential, logistic, stretched and compressed ...Missing: journal | Show results with:journ…
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007792…
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web search NEUTRAL — 16 hours ago · The research, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, introduces a nonlinear "rate-feedback" model for global population growth ...
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-mathematical-global-population…
verified
“the "doomsday" scenario proposed in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and colleagues, who mathematically extrapolated that the world population would diverge toward infinity around 2026.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The claim is confirmed by multiple web sources and the context of Heinz von Foerster's work in cybernetics. Specifically, web results confirm the 1960 paper in Science and the 2026 divergence date.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Cybernetics is the transdisciplinary study of circular causal processes such as feedback and recursion, where the effects of a system's actions (its outputs) return as inputs to that system, influenci…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cybernetics
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Heinz von Foerster (né von Förster; November 13, 1911 – October 2, 2002) was an Austrian-American scientist combining physics and philosophy, and widely attributed as the originator of second-order cy…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinz_von_Foerster
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Second-order cybernetics, also known as the cybernetics of cybernetics, is the recursive application of cybernetics to itself and the reflexive practice of cybernetics according to such a critique. It…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-order_cybernetics
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“We found that the model successfully reproduces both "compressed exponential" growth phases, such as the rapid industrial-era expansion, and the slower "stretched exponential" regime that has characterized global population growth since about 1970.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm the existence of research by Trachenko and Zaccone regarding 'stretched' and 'compressed' exponential behavior in the context of population dynamics and relaxation.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Alessio Zaccone (born 7 September 1981, Alessandria) is an Italian physicist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alessio_Zaccone
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In mathematics, the exponential integral ⁠ E i {\displaystyle \mathrm {Ei} } ⁠ is a special function on the complex plane. It is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_integral
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — When two fluid layers move relative to each other, a friction force develops between them and the slower layer acts to slow down the faster layer. This internal resistance to flow is described by the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viscosity
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Under a deliberately conservative worst-case assumption that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around 2 billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, with humanity potentially halving by around the year 2064.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific prediction of population halving by 2064 under a 2 billion carrying capacity assumption is found in one specific web search result reporting on the model.
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web search NEUTRAL — of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on.[152] The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
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web search NEUTRAL — Under a deliberately conservative worst-case assumption that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity suddenly dropped to around 2 billion people, our model predicts a rapid global population decline, wi…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-mathematical-global-population…
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web search NEUTRAL — Why is the population growing so fast? Much of it is due to advanced fertilisers and intensive farming practices, leading to higher crop yields that can sustain more people. Health care has improved, …
https://theconversation.com/bob-brown-is-right-its-time-envi…
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“Alessio Zaccone et al, Global population crisis scenarios predicted by a general nonlinear dynamical model, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118542”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm the title of the paper and its publication in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, with some results referencing a 2026 date/volume.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary area of scientific study and branch of mathematics. It focuses on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to init…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Elsevier ( EL-sə-veer) is a Dutch academic publishing company specializing in scientific, technical, and medical content. Its products include journals such as The Lancet, Cell, the ScienceDirect coll…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsevier
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Fractal compression is a lossy compression method for digital images, based on fractals. The method is best suited for textures and natural images, relying on the fact that parts of an image often res…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_compression
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Alessio Zaccone received his Ph.D. from the Department of Chemistry of ETH Zurich in 2010.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Confirmed by multiple sources including the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) and Grokipedia, stating he earned his PhD from ETH Zurich in 2010.
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web search NEUTRAL — Alessio Zaccone is an Italian physicist.Zaccone contributed to various areas of condensed matter physics. He is known for his work on the atomic theory of elasticity and viscoelasticity of amorphous s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alessio_Zaccone
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web search NEUTRAL — After obtaining a PhD in chemical physics at ETH Zurich (Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences), he worked as a post-doctoral researcher and as an Oppenheimer Research Fellow in physics at t…
https://www.ias.tum.de/ias/zaccone-alessio/
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web search NEUTRAL — [3] Zaccone earned his PhD in Chemical Physics from ETH Zurich in 2010, receiving the Silver Medal from the institution in 2011 for outstanding doctoral work.
https://grokipedia.com/page/alessio_zaccone
verified
“From 2011 till 2014 he was an Oppenheimer Research Fellow at the Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Confirmed by his CV, the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS), and other academic reporting that he was an Oppenheimer Research Fellow at the Cavendish Laboratory from 2011 to 2014.
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web search NEUTRAL — 2011 - 2014. Oppenheimer Research Fellow in Physics (independent group leader), Cavendish. Laboratory, University of Cambridge, UK. Research on soft matter, ...
https://files.topitalianscientists.org/prod/MyProfile/51233/…
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 14, 2025 ... D. from the Department of Chemistry of ETH Zurich in 2010. From 2011 till 2014 he was an Oppenheimer Research Fellow at the Cavendish Laboratory ...
https://phys.org/news/2025-12-mystery-atoms-thin-materials.h…
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web search NEUTRAL — ... Oppenheimer Research Fellow in physics at the Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge. Selected Awards. 2014, Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) ...
https://www.ias.tum.de/ias/zaccone-alessio/
help
“After faculty appointments at Technical University Munich (2014–2015) and at University of Cambridge (2015–2018), he has been an associate professor and then a full professor and chair of theoretical physics in the Department of Physics at the University of Milano since 2022.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm or deny his specific faculty appointments at TU Munich and University of Cambridge or his current role at the University of Milano.
help
“Awards include the ETH Silver Medal, the 2020 Gauss Professorship of the Göttingen Academy of Sciences, the Fellowship of Queens' College Cambridge, and an ERC Consolidator grant "Multimech."”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific awards listed, although the ETH Silver Medal was mentioned in a different context for claim 6.
schedule
“Research contributions include the analytical solution to the jamming transition problem (Zaccone & Scossa-Romano PRB 2011), and the analytical solution to the random close packing problem in 2D and 3D (Zaccone PRL 2022).”
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“He is the author of the book "Theory of Disordered Solids", Springer, 2023.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.