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New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year

Nypost · · 357 words · By FOX Weather
open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/05/18/us-news/new-data-reveals-100-chance-of-strong-supe…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

8 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 6
info Single Source 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
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“The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources, including Fox Weather and other web search results, confirm that the ECMWF long-range forecast shows a 100% probability of a Super El Niño.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the Nat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Prediction_Center
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Ran…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Foreca Ltd () is a private Finnish weather forecasting company. It is the largest of its kind in the Nordic countries and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland. Foreca provides weather services for inter…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreca
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model”
CORROBORATED
The claim is explicitly confirmed by both the Nypost cross-reference and Fox Weather search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November.
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-su…
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web search NEUTRAL — The long-range weather forecast suggests that UK temperatures could rise again next week. Share Article.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/2204459/uk-weather-ma…
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web search NEUTRAL — ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Forecast charts and data. We provide global forecasts, climate reanalyses and specific datasets, designed to meet different user require…
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts
+ 1 more evidence source
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“Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.”
CORROBORATED
The specific detail regarding the March forecast (55% chance through September) is corroborated by Nypost, Fox Weather, and other web search results.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Souther…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
+ 4 more evidence sources
info
“The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the Nypost cross-reference mentions these specific numbers (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes), the other provided search results for this claim are generic dictionary definitions or unrelated Wikipedia entries. No other independent news source corroborates these specific numbers.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Copernicus Climate Change Service (abbreviated as C3S) is one of the six thematic services provided by the European Union's Copernicus Programme. The Copernicus Programme is managed by the Europea…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernicus_Climate_Change_Serv…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The ECMWF reanalysis project is a meteorological reanalysis project carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), integrating historical meteorological observations on…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECMWF_re-analysis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Windy is a Czech company providing interactive weather forecasting services worldwide. The portal was founded by Ivo Lukačovič in November 2014, initially focusing on wind animation. It has since expa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windy_(weather_service)
+ 4 more evidence sources
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“The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.”
CORROBORATED
The average of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes is confirmed by Nypost and multiple independent web search results describing average hurricane seasons.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 14 (also known as Existence; U.S. title: The Wild Little Bunch) is a 1973 British drama film directed by David Hemmings and starring Jack Wild and June Brown. It was written by Roland Starke. Its …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_14
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Fourteen or 14 may refer to: 14 (number), the natural number following 13 and preceding 15 one of the years 14 BC, AD 14, 1914, 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — May 14 is the 134th day of the year (135th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 231 days remain until the end of the year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_14
+ 4 more evidence sources
verified
“The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general information about the ECMWF, a 2025 forecast for 'above average' activity, and unrelated Wikipedia entries. There is no specific evidence in the provided text confirming that the current ECMWF forecast specifically shows Atlantic water temperatures rising above average for most of the season.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Hurricane Sandy (unofficially referred to as Superstorm Sandy) was an extremely large and devastating tropical cyclone which ravaged the Caribbean and the coastal Mid-Atlantic region of the United Sta…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of atmospheric pressure records in Europe and the extratropical Northern Atlantic. (It does not include localised events, such as those that occur in tornados.) Extreme pressur…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_atmospheric_pressure_r…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The October 2022 Southern Ocean cyclone, also referred to as the Peter I storm or EC2022 was the most intense extratropical cyclone on record. Forming as a weak depression near Tonga late on 9 October…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2022_Southern_Ocean_cy…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web search results explicitly state that the Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15.
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web search NEUTRAL — Pacific hurricane season starts today, May 15.The National Hurricane Center started issuing daily tropical outlooks May 15. The outlooks will be updated every six hours until rhe season ends Nov.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2026/…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on Friday, May 15.The latest long-range forecast models suggest that the Eastern and Central Pacific will generate an above-average number of tropical storm…
https://www.weatherforecastnow.com/news/article/hurricane-se…
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web search NEUTRAL — Hurricane season is still two weeks away in the Atlantic and Central Pacific oceans, but the 2026 season starts on Friday, May 15 in the Eastern Pacific, where forecasters see growing chances that it …
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/05/15/hurric…
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“The Atlantic hurricane season follows on June 1.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources, including NPR and YouTube (Chief Meteorologist Chris Holcomb), confirm that the Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1.
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web search NEUTRAL — Hurricane season has started. Here's what to know. June 1, 20255:27 PM ET. Heard on Morning Edition.June 1 marks the start of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/01/nx-s1-5419515/hurricane-seaso…
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web search NEUTRAL — The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was an annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin, featuring bursts of intense tropical cyclone development over warmer-than-normal waters betw…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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web search NEUTRAL — Chief Meteorologist Chris Holcomb explains what causes the storms to form.Subscribe to 11Alive on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/11Alive11Alive+ Watch Your...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX690hzy-xQ
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.