eFinder

eFinder

Home › Article

New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year

Nypost · · 399 words · By FOX Weather
open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/05/07/science/2026-el-nino-intensity-forecast-explained-…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

12 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
schedule Pending 2
verified Verified 1
check_circle
“The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web search results from different sources (Fox Weather, El-Balad.com, and others) explicitly state that the ECMWF long-range forecast shows a 100% chance of a Super El Niño forming.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Climate of Peru describes the diverse climates of this large South American country with an area of 1,285,216 km2 (496,225 sq mi). Peru is located entirely in the tropics but features desert and mount…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Peru
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) is an intergovernmental organisation created through an international convention agreed by a current total of 30 …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EUMETSAT
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy r…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone
+ 3 more evidence sources
check_circle
“The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that the ECMWF issued its May long-range forecast model.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — ECMWF May forecast The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issued its May long-range forecast model after March data had shown only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño thre…
https://www.el-balad.com/17005609
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The latest long-range European forecast shows there's a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S. The Euro…
https://wol.com/european-forecast-shows-100-chance-of-super-…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Annual forecasts are produced with the same system every three months and extend 13 months into the future. Seasonal charts include differences (or anomalies) from a long-term (model-based) climatolog…
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support…
check_circle
“Back in March, data only reached through September, when there was only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold.”
CORROBORATED
The evidence from El-Balad.com and Fox Weather specifically mentions that March data showed only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold by September.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1982–1983 El Niño event was one of the strongest El Niño events since records were kept. It led to droughts in Indonesia and Australia, widespread flooding across the southern United States, lack …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982–83_El_Niño_event
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1997–1998 El Niño was regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997–98_El_Niño_event
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific.”
VERIFIED
The claim is confirmed by both news reports (Fox Weather) and authoritative scientific sources (NOAA Climate.gov and National Geographic), stating that El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity and increases Eastern Pacific activity.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. Among them, 7 became hurricanes, with 3 reaching major h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“The latest forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific numbers (13 named storms and 6 hurricanes) are reported by Fox Weather. While other sources discuss 2026 forecasts, they provide different numbers (e.g., TSR predicts 14/7), making this specific ECMWF forecast figure unique to the Fox Weather report in the provided evidence.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Copernicus Climate Change Service (abbreviated as C3S) is one of the six thematic services provided by the European Union's Copernicus Programme. The Copernicus Programme is managed by the Europea…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernicus_Climate_Change_Serv…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The ECMWF reanalysis project is a meteorological reanalysis project carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), integrating historical meteorological observations on…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECMWF_re-analysis
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Windy is a Czech company providing interactive weather forecasting services worldwide. The portal was founded by Ivo Lukačovič in November 2014, initially focusing on wind animation. It has since expa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windy_(weather_service)
+ 3 more evidence sources
check_circle
“The average in a season is 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources, including a general hurricane season summary and Jacksonville news, confirm that an average season produces 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Fourteen or 14 may refer to: 14 (number), the natural number following 13 and preceding 15 one of the years 14 BC, AD 14, 1914, 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus are smartphones that were developed and marketed by Apple. They are the sixteenth-generation iPhones, succeeding the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Mini, and were announced d…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_14
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 14 (also known as Existence; U.S. title: The Wild Little Bunch) is a 1973 British drama film directed by David Hemmings and starring Jack Wild and June Brown. It was written by Roland Starke. Its …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_14
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf.”
SINGLE SOURCE
This specific detail regarding near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf is only found in the Fox Weather report.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf. The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most …
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-su…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — ECMWF May forecast. The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is the clearest signal yet that the strongest El Niño ever is likely to form by November.
https://www.el-balad.com/17005280
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Forecast charts and data. We provide global forecasts, climate reanalyses and specific datasets, designed to meet different user require…
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts
info
“The forecast also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The prediction of above-average Atlantic water temperatures for most of the season is specifically cited in the Fox Weather report; other search results for this claim were irrelevant (San Diego weather).
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Hourly weather forecast in San Diego, CA. Check current conditions in San Diego, CA with radar, hourly, and more.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/san-diego/92101/hourly-wea…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for San Diego, California with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/4b9990352e6d99a04c62805…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · NBC 7 First Alert Weather forecasts bring you the latest from NBC San Diego meteorologists. Find live radar maps, weather alerts and more.
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/
help
“The forecast does, however, paint a picture of below-average tropical activity across most of the Atlantic Main Development Region.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm or deny the forecast for the Atlantic Main Development Region.
help
“Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided in the search results to confirm the start date of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
schedule
“The Atlantic hurricane season follows on June 1.”
PENDING
schedule
“models show above-average rain across the South.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.