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Most prediction market traders don't make a profit—Gen Z and millennials are turning to them anyway

Cnbc · · 991 words · By Kamaron McNair
Prediction Market Volatility Financial Risk Management Generational Wealth Gap
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/gen-z-millennials-prediction-markets.html

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Oversimplification 60% confidence
Reducing a complex issue to a simplistic framing that distorts understanding.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 6
schedule Pending 4
help Insufficient Evidence 2
info Single Source 1
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“Nearly a third of Gen Zers (32%) and almost a quarter (24%) of millennials say they are currently or considering putting their money into prediction markets or sports betting, a Northwestern Mutual study found in January.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence does not contain the specific Northwestern Mutual study results (32% Gen Z, 24% Millennials). While other sources mention young adults investing in high-risk assets, they do not provide these specific percentages.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — MetLife, Inc. is the holding corporation for the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (MLIC), better known as MetLife, and its affiliates. MetLife is among the largest global providers of insurance, an…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetLife
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company and affiliated companies, commonly shortened to Nationwide, is a group of large U.S. insurance and financial services companies based in Columbus, Ohio. The company…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_Mutual_Insurance_Co…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Generation Z (or Gen Z), colloquially referred to as "zoomers" in the West, is the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha. Researchers and popular media use the mid-t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_views_of_Generation_…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“That's compared with just 17% of all U.S. adults and much smaller shares of Gen Xers and baby boomers.”
CORROBORATED
A CNBC article explicitly confirms the figure of 17% of all U.S. adults currently or considering putting money into prediction markets or sports betting.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Georgia ( JOR-jə) is a state in the Southeastern, South Atlantic, and Deep South regions of the United States. It borders Tennessee to the northwest, North Carolina and South Carolina to the northeas…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(U.S._state)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the United States, a state is a constituent political entity, of which there are 50. Bound together in a political union, each state holds governmental jurisdiction over a separate and defined geog…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States of America (USA), also known as the United States (U.S.) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It is a federal republic consisting of 50 states and a federal c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“trading volumes expected to nearly quadruple in 2026 from the previous year and hit $1 trillion by 2030, according to an April report from investment firm Bernstein.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that Bernstein's April report projects prediction market volumes will reach $1 trillion by 2030 and mentions growth projections for 2026 (e.g., hitting $240 billion).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following notable deaths occurred in 2026. Names are reported under the date of death, in alphabetical order. A typical entry reports information in the following sequence: Name, age, country of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_in_2026
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Matthew Bernstein (born October 16, 1998) is an American content creator, makeup artist, and activist. Bernstein became an internet celebrity because of his social media posts, which largely consist o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Bernstein_(internet_perso…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Seymour Abraham Bernstein (April 24, 1927 – April 30, 2026) was an American pianist, composer, and teacher. He is the subject of the documentary Seymour: An Introduction directed by the actor Ethan Ha…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Bernstein
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the U.S. prediction markets with a combined trading volume of $60 billion so far in 2026, Bernstein reports.”
DISPUTED
The claim states a combined trading volume of $60 billion in 2026. However, evidence from Bernstein data mentions combined monthly volumes of nearly $24 billion in April, and other sources mention combined lifetime volumes of $150 billion. There is no evidence supporting a specific $60 billion figure for 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — Combined monthly volumes across Polymarket and Kalshi hit nearly $24 billion in April, according to Bernstein data. Kalshi now commands a 62% market share, up from 55% in January, driven by its domina…
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/hyperliqui…
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web search NEUTRAL — The number of active traders of Polymarket dropped to about 643,000 in April, down from over 733,000 in March, according to The Block’s data. Polymarket and Kalshi remain the leading betting markets i…
https://www.theblock.co/post/399759/polymarket-and-kalshis-c…
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket and Kalshi reached a combined lifetime trading volume of $150 billion through April. The figure totals contracts bought and sold on both platforms since each launch. The $150 billion number…
https://thecoinomist.com/news/polymarket-kalshi-150b-combine…
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“most traders on prediction market platform Polymarket lose money, according to an April Bloomberg analysis of trade data compiled by data firm Dune.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including Bloomberg and LinkedIn, confirm that a Bloomberg analysis of Dune data showed most Polymarket traders lose money.
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web search NEUTRAL — In reality, most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases. Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, according to a Bloom…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/most-pred…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Bloomberg analysis confirms that most Polymarket users lose money, with automated bots capturing the majority of profits. Retail investors lost $131 million due to poor entry timing, despite often…
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/490b8-polymarket-users-lose-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains Data from millions of accounts shows that trading and profits are dominated by a tiny slice of highly active accounts. Over 100…
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/most-traders-lose-money-…
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“Over 100,000 accounts have lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, the analysts found, more than double the number of accounts that have won as much money.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that over 100,000 Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, and that this number is significantly higher than the number of accounts that won similar amounts.
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web search NEUTRAL — Over 100,000 Polymarket accounts have lost over $1,000 since January 2025, twice as much as the wallets’ gains.According to sources, since January 2025, more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have reco…
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/1425f-100000-polymarket-acco…
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web search NEUTRAL — Bloomberg analysis showed that more than 100,000 accounts on Polymarket have lost at least $1,000 since the start of 2025.About 823 accounts earned more than $100,000 each, and the total profit of act…
https://coinspot.io/en/analysis/100000-polymarket-accounts-h…
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web search NEUTRAL — Among those accounts, most lost money, per the report. The Bloomberg analysis also found that during the period studied, 5% of wallets accounted for 75% of trading volume on Polymarket.
https://www.pymnts.com/markets/2026/most-polymarket-users-lo…
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“Researchers from French and Canadian business schools similarly found that since 2022, roughly 69% of accounts have lost money on Polymarket, according to a paper published in March.”
CORROBORATED
A Benzinga report references an academic study finding that 68.8% (roughly 69%) of Polymarket users lost money.
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web search NEUTRAL — Oct 5, 2018 · For -O0, whether -march=native or -march= is the default still specifies the same family, so both are perfectly compatibly with -O0; and whenever another optimization level is specified,…
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/52653025/why-is-march-na…
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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 27, 2022 · What are the differences and tradeoffs between -march=haswell, -march=core-avx2, and -mavx2 for compiling avx2 intrinsics? I know that -mavx2 is a flag and -march=haswell/core-avx2 are …
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/73142229/march-haswell-v…
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web search NEUTRAL — How does -march=native choose which instruction sets to enable and which to disable? I have the following conjecture: -march=native will be using CPUID instructions to calculate supported instruction …
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/63922720/gcc-differences…
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“77% of the gains have gone to the top 1% of users on the platform, the researchers found.”
CORROBORATED
The Benzinga report explicitly cites an academic study stating that the top 1% of users captured 77% of the gains on Polymarket.
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web search NEUTRAL — A typical user is somewhere between $1 and $100 in the red. The numbers echo a recent academic study finding that 68.8% of Polymarket users lost money, with the top 1% capturing 77% of gains.
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/05/52…
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web search NEUTRAL — Analysis of 1.72M Polymarket accounts finds 3.14% are “skilled winners” who, with market makers, capture over 30% of gains while most accounts incur losses.
https://thecoinomist.com/news/3-percent-polymarket-users-cap…
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web search NEUTRAL — Market surveillance sales pitch. Solidus is not a neutral observer. The firm sells HALO, the surveillance platform whose output the report relies on, and recently signed a deal to deploy that platform…
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/29/a-tiny-group-is-…
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“Over 70% of traders on Kalshi have been unprofitable in the last six months, according to data the company shared with CNBC Make It.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding Kalshi's profitability data shared with CNBC Make It.
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“The company confirmed it has millions of monthly users”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the number of monthly users for Kalshi.
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“Northwestern Mutual found that among those interested in prediction markets, sports betting, crypto, options or meme stocks, 80% of Gen Zers and 75% of millennials say it's because they feel financially behind and think these platforms can help them reach their financial goals more than traditional methods.”
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“A World Economic Forum report from March cited Gen Z's high student debt and stagnating wages paired with rising home costs as primary drivers for the generation's financial nihilism.”
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“Polymarket and Kalshi say they have rules in place to prohibit insider trading.”
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“CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.