“More than 560 million people in sub-Saharan Africa live without electricity.”

“About 384 million live in countries classified by the World Bank as conflict-affected, where poverty, insecurity and weak institutions make large energy infrastructure investments risky.”

“Mini-grids – often powered by renewable energy – are widely promoted by international development organisations as a solution.”

“A mini-grid is a small, local electricity network that operates independently of the main grid to generate and distribute power to a specific area.”

“Mini-grids provide more reliable, higher-capacity power than the small-scale solar home systems used in fragile or low-income contexts, which often can only power phone chargers or lights.”

“Mini-grids can supply enough energy to power small businesses that do milling, refrigeration and welding.”

“Mini-grids face a circular problem. They need customers to buy the electricity but often face low demand and high operational costs.”

“Our new study examines how this challenge was addressed in North Kivu, in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a region marked by decades of conflict.”

“Virunga Energies, a private mini-grid operator, constructed four powerplants between 2014 and 2019 using the many rivers there.”

“At the time of our study, this system was the largest electricity provider in North Kivu, which has a population of about 6.6 million people.”

“Electricity consumption starts small and grows slowly. Connected households typically use enough for lighting, phone charging and a few appliances.”

“Virunga Energies charges above the national utility’s official rate but at the low end of typical mini-grid tariffs in the DR Congo.”

“Conflict disrupts the demand for electricity. In one town, rebel attacks in 2020 caused electricity consumption to collapse by more than 80%.”

“The alliance partnered with a bank to offer microcredit with repayments tied to electricity bills.”

“We analysed six years of electricity meter data, surveyed 911 households and 291 small businesses, and interviewed Virunga Energies staff to understand how the company manages risk amid uncertain electricity demand.”

“The Virunga Alliance, a public-private partnership, developed industrial activities near mini-grids to create stable electricity demand.”

“Electrification in fragile settings requires coordination among infrastructure, finance, enterprise development, land governance, and energy policy.”

“Our research found that coordinated efforts by public-private partnerships, supported by strategic public and development finance, helped stimulate electricity demand.”

“Electricity uptake (use) is highly uneven and difficult to predict. This uncertainty makes it difficult for operators to plan grid capacity and investment.”

“The company sold carbon credits and power to Bitcoin miners to utilize excess electricity.”

“Electricity connection rates varied widely, from nearly 75% in Goma to about 25% in rural areas.”

“The first is land tenure. Households must provide proof of land ownership to obtain a connection. In eastern DRC, land titles are costly, slow to obtain and often disputed.”

“The second barrier is affordability. Our research found that the price to connect and electrically wire a house can exceed what many households and small businesses can afford.”

“Coordinated support, including blended finance, was crucial for the sustainability of the mini-grid project.”

“Connection fees are already partially subsidized, limiting further cost reduction.”

“The company promoted electric cooking by giving away free electric pressure cookers, leading to cost savings for households.”