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Markets raise chances for a Fed rate hike following hot inflation report

Cnbc · 🇮🇷 public Iran · · 524 words · By Jeff Cox
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What to know about Markets raise chances for a Fed rate hike following hot inflation report

Traders moved further away Tuesday from expecting any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and in fact began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike.

Claims checked 7
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center75%
Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Traders moved further away Tuesday from expecting any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and in fact began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike.

Why it matters

Following a hotter-than-expected inflation report, market pricing took virtually any chance of a cut off the table between now and the end of 2027, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker of 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

Common ground

Instead, they priced in a better than 1-in-3 chance of an increase by the end of this year, as expectations rose that cost of living concerns would outweigh any worries about the labor market deteriorating.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/markets-raise-chances-for-a-fed-rate-hike-follow…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 7 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

verified Verified By Reference 3
info Single Source 2
check_circle Corroborated 2
verified
Claim 1: “they priced in a better than 1-in-3 chance of an increase by the end of this year”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence explains what the Fed and FOMC are, but does not provide the specific market pricing percentages for rate increases by the end of the year.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Federal Reserve System (colloquially "the Fed") that is charged under United States law with overseeing the nation's open market oper…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve System (often shortened to the Federal Reserve, or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A Federal Reserve Bank is a regional bank of the Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the United States. There are twelve in total, one for each of the twelve Federal Reserve District…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 2: “market pricing took virtually any chance of a cut off the table between now and the end of 2027, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker of 30-day fed funds futures contracts”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While the evidence confirms the existence and purpose of the CME FedWatch tool, there is no specific data provided in the search results regarding the probability of rate cuts through 2027.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bitcoin (abbreviation: BTC; sign: ₿) is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the p…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Arabic: محمد العريان, romanized: Muḥammad al-ʿAryān; born August 19, 1958) is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He was President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_El-Erian
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 3: “since the Iran war began, derivative contracts — known as "forwards" — have been climbing higher and most recently were hovering around levels last seen in the autumn of 2025”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms a '2026 Iran war' began on February 28, 2026. However, there is no evidence in the provided search results regarding 'forwards' derivative contracts or their levels relative to autumn 2025.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 8 April 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan. Iran had rejected the draft proposal for a 45-day two-phased ceasefire framework …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as Persia, is a country in West Asia. It borders Iraq to the west, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to the northwest, the Caspian Sea to the no…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the 2026 Iran war covers the period since 28 February 2026. The war is ongoing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 4: “Since the fighting began in late February, energy prices have been soaring, accounting for more than 40% of a gain in the consumer price index that sent the headline inflation level to its highest in nearly three years, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that in April (during the 2026 Iran war context), the CPI rose to its highest level since 2023 (nearly three years) and that the war's start in February impacted these prices. Specifically, sources mention the CPI rose 0.6% in April and 0.9% in March (the first full month of the war).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. It is calculated as the weighted average price of a m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This page lists details of the consumer price index by country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_by_countr…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U), also known as chain-weighted CPI or chain-linked CPI is a time series measure of price levels of consumer goods and services created by the Bu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Chained_Consumer…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 5: “Market pricing around noon Tuesday implied about a 37% probability of a rate increase before the end of the year”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
No evidence was found that specifies a 37% probability of a rate increase at noon on a specific Tuesday.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve System (often shortened to the Federal Reserve, or simply the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of historical rate actions by the United States Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC controls the supply of credit to banks and the sale of treasury securities. The Federal Op…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Tuesday is the day of the week between Monday and Wednesday. According to international standard ISO 8601, Monday is the first day of the week; thus, Tuesday is the second day of the week. According …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuesday
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 6: “incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is expected to take the reins later his month”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for 'Kevin Warsh' returned results for a TV show called 'Kevin' and no information regarding Kevin Warsh becoming the Fed Chair.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kevin is an American adult animated sitcom created by Joe Wengert and Aubrey Plaza. The show depicts Kevin, the titular anthropomorphic cat, adjusting to life on his own following the separation of hi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_(TV_Series)
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kevin: Created by Aubrey Plaza, Joe Wengert. With Jason Schwartzman, Amy Sedaris, Aparna Nancherla, Gil Ozeri. A life-long housecat decides that he doesn't want to live with people anymore.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt32499838/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — From co-creator Aubrey Plaza, KEVIN is a hilarious and heart-warming story about finding where you belong in the world. After the unexpected break-up of his human owners, lovable and neurotic housecat…
https://www.amazon.com/Kevin-Season-1/dp/B0GTC54QP2
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Claim 7: “the April increase was much smaller when stripping out food, energy and shelter, the latter of which rose 0.6%, its biggest monthly increase since September 2023”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that the CPI rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in April 2026, and one source specifically mentions that the shelter index also increased in April.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% in the 12 months through April, up from 3.3% in March and the highest since 2023. On a monthly basis, CPI gained 0.6%, slowing from the 0.9% increase…
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/12/cpi-april-inflation-iran-tr…
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web search NEUTRAL — Prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, driving the annual rate to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/economy/us-cpi-inflation-…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported …
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1397968-us-consumer-price-…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.