fullscreen

eFinder

eFinder

Home › Financial Technology Accessibility › Article

Looking at just the odds isn’t enough. How traders gain an edge on prediction markets

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · · 1180 words · By Ananya Chetia; Davis Giangiulio
Financial Technology Accessibility Prediction Market Trading AI and Automation in Finance
headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing
Generate a natural audio summary of this story
Daily briefing

What to know about Financial Technology Accessibility

It's been less than a year since 26-year-old Logan Sudeith became a full-time trader on prediction markets and in one month alone he managed to collect $250,000.

Claims checked 12
Techniques found 1
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center88%
Right12%

8 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

It's been less than a year since 26-year-old Logan Sudeith became a full-time trader on prediction markets and in one month alone he managed to collect $250,000.

Why it matters

That doesn't happen from simply checking the odds of an event contract on the platform, he said.

Common ground

"For the Super Bowl I bought an antenna, so that I could watch the commercials," he said, noting online streaming services could face lags.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Glittering Generalities: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/01/traders-go-full-time-on-prediction-markets-using…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Glittering Generalities 70% confidence
Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing glittering generalities helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 3
check_circle Corroborated 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
schedule Pending 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
verified Verified 1
help
Claim 1: “Kalshi, for example, recently launched a "Pro" trading terminal”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding a 'Pro' trading terminal launched by Kalshi.
schedule
Claim 2: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 3: “The surge in trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket last fall drove Deneau to become a full-time prediction market trader.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence mentions trading volume increases, but the specific link between that volume and Kenneth Deneau's decision to go full-time is not corroborated across multiple independent sources in the provided text.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Michael Boss placed his first trades on Kalshi during the 2024 presidential election, and decided he wanted to start speculating more often on the platform in summer 2025. But he didn’t start trading …
https://chicagofinancialtimes.com/2026/08/01/traders-go-full…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — And trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket – the two leading prediction markets – has increased dramatically since mid-2025.Combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, in U.S. do…
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-v…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — According to analysis by The Block, the 2026 FIFA World Cup has propelled prediction markets to new heights, with combined trading volume on Kalshi and.
https://financefeeds.com/world-cup-kalshi-polymarket-volume-…
check_circle
Claim 4: “Kenneth Deneau, 32... turned to AI to scan relevant information... about Anthropic-owned language model Claude.”
CORROBORATED
One source explicitly mentions Kenneth Deneau, 32, turning to AI to scan information. Another source corroborates that traders are using Anthropic's Claude AI for this purpose in prediction markets.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · One common theme among traders is reading the news. Kenneth Deneau, 32, calls it a “minimum requirement” to know what’s happening in the world but admits that it can get overwhelming. He t…
https://www.europesays.com/ai/126847/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Mar 17, 2026 · Cryptocurrency traders are using Anthropic's Claude AI model to develop automated trading bots for prediction markets like Polymarket. These bots connect to Polymarket's API, scan news …
https://www.gate.com/news/detail/claude-ai-automated-arbitra…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Mar 16, 2026 · A wave of AI-powered trading bots built on Anthropic's Claude is reshaping prediction markets. Reports from multiple independent traders show win rates between 62% and 72%, with one cas…
https://predik.io/en/blog/bot-ia-anthropic-claude-trading-me…
info
Claim 5: “Earlier this year, when an event contract asked the date for when President Donald Trump would fire former Attorney General Pam Bondi, Deneau relied on Pacer, a database providing court records”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided for this claim consists only of general descriptions of what the PACER database is. There is no evidence in the provided text confirming that Kenneth Deneau specifically used it to track a contract regarding Donald Trump and Pam Bondi.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Use the PACER Case Locator to search a nationwide index of federal court cases. This information is updated daily. Get automated case information for the U.S. Supreme Court and bankruptcy courts by ph…
https://pacer.uscourts.gov/find-case
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — This will generate a listing of nationwide court locations and case numbers where a party is involved in federal litigation. If you cannot find the case party through the PACER Case Locator, then cont…
https://pacer.uscourts.gov/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — You may conduct nationwide searches to determine whether or not a party is involved in federal litigation. Each night, subsets of data are collected from the courts and transferred to the PCL.
https://pcl.uscourts.gov/pcl/pages/search/findParty.jsf
check_circle
Claim 6: “His bot has about a 70% win rate in trading on economic-related event contracts on Kalshi”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results explicitly state that Steve Farmer's bot has about a 70% win rate on economic-related event contracts on Kalshi.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Farmer said the bot has about a 70% win rate, while cautioning that it is likely not a long-term investment strategy. Michael Boss, who began trading full-time in February, uses software that places m…
https://ozarab.media/prediction-market-traders-turn-to-bots-…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — His bot has about a 70% win rate in trading on economic-related event contracts on Kalshi, though he admitted it’s likely not a long-term investment strategy, noting it’s not replacing his retirement …
https://chicagofinancialtimes.com/2026/08/01/traders-go-full…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for …
https://kalshi.com/
verified
Claim 7: “Between Polymarket and Kalshi alone, there can be more than 100,000 active markets.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While evidence confirms the existence and high volume of Polymarket and Kalshi, none of the provided sources specify that there are 'more than 100,000 active markets' combined.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using fin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site ac…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 8: “Kalshi speculator Deek... has placed more than 5,700 trades on the platform”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding a user named Deek placing 5,700 trades.
check_circle
Claim 9: “26-year-old Logan Sudeith became a full-time trader on prediction markets and in one month alone he managed to collect $250,000.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results explicitly state that 26-year-old Logan Sudeith became a full-time trader and collected $250,000 in one month.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — It’s been less than a year since 26-year-old Logan Sudeith became a full-time trader on prediction markets and in one month alone he managed to collect $250,000. That doesn’t happen from simply checki…
https://chicagofinancialtimes.com/2026/08/01/traders-go-full…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Logan Sudeith, 26, became a full-time prediction-market trader less than a year ago and said he collected $250,000 in one month. For the Super Bowl, he bought an antenna to watch commercials with lowe…
https://ozarab.media/prediction-market-traders-turn-to-bots-…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Why Traders Are Betting. For traders like Sudeith, the move from a $75,000-a-year job as a financial risk analyst to a full-time "Professional Event Trader" (PMT) was a matter of simple arithmetic.
https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/predicts…
info
Claim 10: “Michael Boss placed his first trades on Kalshi during the 2024 presidential election”
SINGLE SOURCE
One source mentions Michael Boss placed his first trades during the 2024 election, but this is not corroborated by a second independent source.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Master advanced presidential election trading strategies. Learn how to read polls, manage risk, and profit from political prediction markets in 2024 and beyond.
https://www.predictengine.ai/blog/advanced-presidential-elec…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — In the fall of 2024, Kalshi won its case against the C.F.T.C., opening the door to legal election betting in the United States. Prediction market traders wagered billions of dollars on Kalshi and Poly…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/magazine/polymarket-predi…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — "He found Kalshi during the election season, and he's like, 'I don't like the elections, whatever.'Kalshi has stressed that it has policies against insider trading and doesn't allow trades on war or d…
https://www.aol.com/articles/kalshi-cofounders-favorite-user…
verified
Claim 11: “Prediction market platforms have an Application Programming Interface, or API, that makes their live and closed markets accessible.”
VERIFIED
The claim is explicitly stated in a news source and is a known technical fact about these platforms (API availability for data access).
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Powerful data, analytics, and intelligence for Polymarket traders.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. presid…
https://polymarketanalytics.com/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Show more markets. Polymarket. The World's Largest Prediction Market™.Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities. Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US, a CFTC-reg…
https://polymarket.com/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Prediction market platforms have an Application Programming Interface, or API, that makes their live and closed markets accessible. It’s a playground full of analysis for Atlanta-based data engineer S…
https://chicagofinancialtimes.com/2026/08/01/traders-go-full…
schedule
Claim 12: “Jay Malavia is a co-founder and CEO at Kairos, an Andreessen Horowitz-backed prediction market trading terminal”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.