Longer droughts and changes in rainfall are already occurring in the Amazon, research finds

Phys · May 28, 2026 · 1242 words · By Luciana Constantino

Climate change impacts Scientific Research and Policy Amazon Rainforest Degradation

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What to know about Climate change impacts

The article discusses two studies from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) regarding the intensification of droughts and rainfall changes in the Amazon. It highlights the risks of forest degradation and fire, while emphasizing the need for integrated policies and collaboration between scientists and firefighting forces.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 13

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center86%

Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Longer droughts and changes in rainfall are already occurring in the Amazon, research finds Stephanie Baum Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor According to two recently published studies led by scientists from Brazil's National Institute for Space…

Why it matters

Without integrated policies and initiatives to combat climate change, the situation could rapidly intensify, posing risks to biodiversity, the replenishment of natural water reservoirs, and the functioning of the forest.

Common ground

The studies, which are based on climate models that incorporate regional dynamics, also serve as a warning for this year and next, as there is the possibility of a "super El Niño." This phenomenon is characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean in the…

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Climate change impacts story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that the scientists used a metric that Aragão has been developing since 2007, the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD)?
How does this story connect Climate change impacts with Scientific Research and Policy over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-longer-droughts-rainfall-amazon.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 13 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 7

schedule Pending 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “the scientists used a metric that Aragão has been developing since 2007, the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD).”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm that scientists used the Maximum Cumulative Water Deficit (MCWD) metric and that Aragão has been developing/using it since 2007.

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web search NEUTRAL — May 28, 2026 · In the research published in the International Journal of Climatology, the scientists used a metric that Aragão has been developing since 2007, ...
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1129991

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web search NEUTRAL — To describe the accumulated water stress that occurs across a dry season, we employ the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) (6). MCWD is defined as the ...
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0804619106

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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 13, 2018 · The pixel-based calculation of the annual maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD) from 1998 to 2015, correponded to the maximum value of the ...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02771-y

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Claim 2: “The article, published in the International Journal of Climatology, points to greater climate instability, more extreme events outside seasonal patterns, and increased forest degradation associated with fire.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm the existence of research published in the International Journal of Climatology regarding these specific climate instabilities and forest degradation in the Amazon.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Carlos Afonso Nobre (born March 27, 1951) is a Brazilian scientist and meteorologist who is mainly highlighted in global warming-related studies. Nobre spearheaded the multi-disciplinary, multinationa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Nobre_(scientist)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Cloud cover (also known as cloudiness, cloudage, or cloud amount) refers to the fraction of the sky obscured by clouds on average when observed from a particular location. Okta is the usual unit for m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_cover

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Phenology is the study of periodic events in biological life cycles and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, as well as habitat factors (such as elevation). Exam…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 3: “According to Anderson, the continuation of this joint effort with firefighters was authorized through 2026 in April.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “The study was conducted in the southwestern Amazon, covering the state of Acre and parts of the states of Amazonas and Rondônia.”

CORROBORATED

Two independent web search results explicitly confirm the study area was the southwestern Amazon, covering Acre and parts of Amazonas and Rondônia.

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web search NEUTRAL — The 2010 drought had three epicenters where vegetation died off, whereas in 2005, the drought was focused on the southwestern part. The findings were published ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_rainforest

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web search NEUTRAL — Mar 29, 2026 · The study was conducted in the southwestern Amazon, encompassing the Brazilian state of Acre and adjacent areas of Amazonas and Rondônia (Figure ...
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.70331

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web search NEUTRAL — May 28, 2026 · The study was conducted in the southwestern Amazon, covering the state of Acre and parts of the states of Amazonas and Rondônia.
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1129991

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Claim 5: “Another study, appearing in Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, analyzes the drought recorded in the Amazon between 2023 and 2024, during which Brazil was heavily affected by El Niño.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results (dated 2026) explicitly mention studies analyzing the 2023-2024 Amazon drought and its association with El Niño.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Conservation International (CI) is an American nonprofit environmental organization headquartered in Crystal City, Virginia. Founded in 1987 by Spencer Beebe and Peter Seligmann, it works internationa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_International

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Amazon rainforest, spanning an area of 3,000,000 km2 (1,200,000 sq mi), is the world's largest rainforest. It encompasses the largest and most biodiverse tropical rainforest on the planet, represe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_of_the_Amazon_ra…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The jaguar (Panthera onca) is a large cat species and the only living member of the genus Panthera that is native to the Americas. Its distinctively marked coat features pale yellow to tan colored fur…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaguar

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 6: “The findings reveal a 9% increase in burned areas and a 19% increase in forest degradation alerts, with up to 4.2 million hectares impacted by fire at the peak of the drought.”

CORROBORATED

A web search result explicitly states that during this period, burned areas increased by 9%, forest degradation alerts increased by 19%, and up to 4.2 million hectares were affected.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Amazon.com, Inc. (doing business as Amazon) is an American multinational technology company engaged in e-commerce, cloud computing, online advertising, digital streaming, entertainment, and artificial…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Amazon rainforest, also called the Amazon jungle, Amazonia, or simply the Amazon, is a moist broadleaf tropical rainforest in the Amazon biome that covers most of the Amazon basin of South Americ…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_rainforest

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In Greek mythology, the Amazons (Ancient Greek: Ἀμαζόνες) were female warriors and hunters, known for their physical agility, strength, archery, riding skills, and the arts of combat. Their society wa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazons

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 7: “Projections indicate longer and more intense dry seasons with increased water stress between June and September, with deficits that could exceed -21 mm/month by the end of the century in the most pessimistic scenario.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While web search results discuss general drying trends and CMIP6 projections for the Amazon, the specific figure of -21 mm/month by the end of the century is not explicitly corroborated by the provided evidence snippets.

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web search NEUTRAL — Sep 29, 2020 ... This new generation of models shows better agreement that most of the Amazonian basin will receive less future rainfall, with particularly ...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/202…

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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 11, 2008 ... Because growth on average exceeded mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been a carbon sink. In the late twentieth century, biomass of trees ...
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rstb/article/363/1498/181…

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web search NEUTRAL — We use satellite observations of the deuterium content of water vapor ( D δ ), solar induced fluorescence (SIF), precipitation, and atmospheric reanalysis to.
https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10646957

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Claim 8: “One of the studies indicates that the dry season in the Amazon is lengthening from four to six months, with a water deficit exceeding -150 millimeters (mm) during that period.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results from May 2026 confirm the finding that the dry season is extending from four to six months. While the specific -150mm deficit is not explicitly quoted in the snippets, the general trend and duration are corroborated across multiple search results.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Amazon most often refers to: Amazon rainforest, a rainforest covering most of the Amazon basin Amazon (company), an American multinational technology company Amazon River, in South America Amazons, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon

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+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 9: “There, they released the "Fire in Focus 2024-2025" report and the international article "State of Wildfires 2024-2025."”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found regarding the release of the 'Fire in Focus 2024-2025' report or the 'State of Wildfires 2024-2025' article in October 2025.

help

Claim 10: “the TREES laboratory, the Brasa Research Network, and the League of Military Fire Departments held an event in October 2025.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results or Wikipedia to confirm an event in October 2025 involving the TREES laboratory, Brasa Research Network, and League of Military Fire Departments.

schedule

Claim 11: “Débora J. Dutra et al, Dry‐Season Water Deficits in the Southwestern Amazon Under High Emissions, International Journal of Climatology (2026). DOI: 10.1002/joc.70331”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “Débora Joana Dutra et al, Intensification of drought-associated wildfires challenges actions for Amazonia's sustainable development, Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2026.02.013”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “two recently published studies led by scientists from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Brazilian Amazon is already beginning to experience scenarios previously projected for the coming decades, including longer dry seasons and changes in rainfall patterns.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results from May 2026 explicitly state that two studies led by INPE scientists indicate the Brazilian Amazon is experiencing longer dry seasons and rainfall changes previously projected for future decades.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Fernando de Mendonça (born December 2, 1924, in Guaramiranga, Ceará) is a Brazilian electronic engineer and researcher, founder and first director of Brazil's National Institute for Space Research.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_de_Mendonça

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Government space agencies, established by the governments of countries and regioagencies (groupings of countries) are established as a means for advocating for engaging in activities related to outer …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_space_agenc…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The National Institute for Space Research (Portuguese: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, INPE) is a research unit of the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations, the main go…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_for_Space_R…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.