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Large Polymarket, Wall Street bets on Trump’s war news under scrutiny

Al Jazeera · · 1459 words · By Erin Hale

The article reports on allegations of insider trading linked to bets on Iran war news, citing suspicious betting patterns on platforms like Polymarket. It references researchers and analysts who identify red flags in the data, while also noting the White House's denial of these accusations as 'baseless and irresponsible reporting.' The piece frames the issue through the lens of insider trading, prediction markets, and proposed regulatory measures like the BETS OFF Act.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/large-polymarket-wall-street-bets-on-tr…

analyticsAnalysis

20%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

16 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“Well-timed trades regarding Iran war news this week lead critics to argue White House may be engaged in insider trading.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results report that critics have raised concerns about potential insider trading activity related to the Iran war and unusual trading on prediction markets, and that the White House has issued warnings regarding insider trading.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, and also known as Persia, is a country in West Asia. It borders Iraq to the west, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to the northwest, the Caspian Sea to th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — White House Down is a 2013 American political action thriller film directed by Roland Emmerich and written by James Vanderbilt. The film stars Channing Tatum, Jamie Foxx, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Jason Clar…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_Down
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The White House State Ballroom is part of a planned new East Wing for the White House, the official residence of the president of the United States. The new East Wing will replace the original, which …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_State_Ballroom
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Traders have made bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with suspiciously well-timed trades.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided web search results discuss general trading strategies and future funding programs but do not contain specific evidence corroborating the claim that 'Traders have made bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with suspiciously well-timed trades.'
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web search NEUTRAL — Aug 23, 2025 · Traders employ many strategies to produce and maintain profitability. Some of these strategies include scalping, day trading, swing trading, event trading, and position trading.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trader.asp
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web search NEUTRAL — In search of the best compromise between indicator lag and indicator responsiveness for timely trading signals, the nonlinear indicator presented here is a excellent solution. Find out how to create a…
https://traders.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · Compare the best funded trader programs and best funded account Forex in 2026: Topstep, FTMO, Earn2Trade, FundedNext and more.
https://tradersunion.com/interesting-articles/what-is-prop-t…
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“Polymarket gained mainstream popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, but it has become synonymous with suspected insider trading since January.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm Polymarket's mainstream popularity during the 2024 US presidential election and its subsequent association with suspected insider trading following events related to the US-Iran conflict.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Shayne Coplan (born 1998) is an American entrepreneur and technologist, best known as the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market. In October …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Researchers have tracked dozens of examples of anonymous new accounts betting big but also correctly just before a critical event like the February 28 US-Israeli strikes.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm the timing of US-Israeli strikes on Iran (mentioning February 28) and the general context of tracking suspicious betting activity around critical events, aligning with the claim's premise.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the 2026 Iran war covers the period since 28 February 2026. The war is ongoing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the Israel–Hezbollah conflict covers the period from 27 November 2024, when the 2024 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement was signed, to 26 February 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Israel–Hezboll…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Following the October 7 attacks and the outbreak of the Gaza war, the United States has provided extensive military, diplomatic, and financial support to Israel. This included rapid deployment of wars…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Isra…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“As of Wednesday, there were 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to outcomes in the war, such as the identity of the next leader of Iran.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results cite the specific figure of 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to war outcomes (including the identity of Iran's next leader) as of a specific 'Wednesday' date.
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web search NEUTRAL — As of Wednesday, there were 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to outcomes in the war, such as the identity of the next leader of Iran, the date of a US-Iran nuclear deal and when Iran w…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/large-polymarket-wa…
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web search NEUTRAL — As of Wednesday March 25, there were 355 live prediction markets on Polymarket linked to outcomes in the war.
https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/insider-trading-time…
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web search NEUTRAL — Show more markets. Polymarket. The World's Largest Prediction Market™.Polymarket operates globally through separate legal entities.
https://polymarket.com/
info
“Andrew 10 GWEI discovered 38 accounts that netted more than $2m betting correctly on the February 28 strikes.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim cites specific details (Andrew 10 GWEI, 38 accounts, $2m) found in the web search results, but no other independent sources corroborate this exact quantification.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Acupuncture is a form of alternative medicine and a component of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in which thin needles are inserted into the body. Acupuncture is a pseudoscience; the theories and p…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acupuncture
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Claude Elwood Shannon (April 30, 1916 – February 24, 2001) was an American polymath who was a mathematician, electrical engineer, computer scientist, cryptographer, and inventor known as the "father o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Horror is a film genre that seeks to elicit physical or psychological fear in its viewers. Horror films often explore dark subject matter and may deal with transgressive topics or themes. Broad elemen…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horror_film
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“The user began preparing accounts with cryptocurrency transfers on February 22 before bets were placed on February 27.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim details specific dates (February 22 and February 27) related to cryptocurrency transfers and betting preparation, which is reported in the web search results, but no other sources corroborate this sequence of events.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — @push is a Telegram bot enabling non-custodial, chat-native crypto transfers on Telegram. It supports both fungible tokens (TON, jettons) and NFTs (including Telegram Gifts), with bidirectional flows …
https://mytonwallet.io/en/blog/push-technical/
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web search NEUTRAL — A convenient service for accepting cryptocurrency payments for the website. Support for multiple cryptocurrencies, high level of security, instant transactions.
https://heleket.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — The DZ Bank ranked third among Germany’s largest banking firms, has revealed that it will go into cryptocurrency trades with retail customers.Published February 3, 2024 1:17 AM. Dz Bank Initiates Cryp…
https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/02/03/dz-bank-initiate-crypt…
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“Researchers look for practices like 'wallet splitting' or opening multiple wallets to place new bets as red flags for suspicious betting.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results discuss identifying red flags in crypto transactions, specifically mentioning patterns like 'rapid multi-wallet hops' and suspicious activity detection, which aligns with the concept of 'wallet splitting' or opening multiple wallets.
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web search NEUTRAL — Illicit activity detection in crypto hinges on analyzing blockchain transaction patterns—such as layering, structuring, and mixer usage—that often attempt to obfuscate fund origins. Suspicious behavio…
https://www.nansen.ai/post/how-blockchain-transaction-patter…
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web search NEUTRAL — This guide outlines how money laundering works, how firms can identify red flags, and how to meet regulatory expectations with strong, proven compliance practices. Understanding Crypto Money Launderin…
https://www.complycube.com/en/crypto-money-laundering-red-fl…
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web search NEUTRAL — Learn the top 10 red flags in crypto transactions and how tools like Merkle Science's Compass detect suspicious activity to ensure compliance and security.
https://www.merklescience.com/blog/top-10-red-flags-to-watch…
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“A group of newly created Polymarket accounts bet $2m on the same three predictions about Iran ceasefire and US military actions.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results or cross-references to support the claim that a group of newly created Polymarket accounts collectively bet $2 million on three specific predictions regarding Iran's ceasefire and US military actions.
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“Trading spiked as 6,200 Brent crude and West Texas intermediate oil contracts with a notational value of $580m were exchanged before Trump's announcement.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results or cross-references to support the claim regarding trading spikes of Brent crude and West Texas intermediate oil contracts valued at $580 million before Trump's announcement.
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“The price of Brent crude fell from $112 to $99 and West Texas intermediate fell from $99 to $86 following Trump's announcement.”
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“Pretrading volume on the S&P 500 e-Mini surged on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before the market opened.”
PENDING
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“Unusual Whales reported a trade involving $1.5bn in S&P 500 futures and $192m in oil futures.”
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“Paul Krugman argued that insider trading on national security information constitutes treason.”
PENDING
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“The White House spokesperson called accusations of insider trading 'baseless and irresponsible reporting'.”
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“Democratic Senator Chris Murphy introduced the BETS OFF Act to prohibit betting on government actions and war-related events.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.