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Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · · 222 words · By Davis Giangiulio
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What to know about Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels

Bitcoin's more than 20% rally this week has sent the cryptocurrency to heights it hasn't seen since May, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see it ending 2026 near current levels.

Claims checked 8
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center80%
Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Bitcoin's more than 20% rally this week has sent the cryptocurrency to heights it hasn't seen since May, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see it ending 2026 near current levels.

Why it matters

Speculators estimate that bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be around $75,000, based on an average of contracts on the platform.

Common ground

The contracts on Kalshi ask traders to place "yes" and "no" trades on whether the cryptocurrency will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on Jan.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/kalshi-traders-say-bitcoin-rally-wont-go-much-hi…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 8 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
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Claim 1: “Bitcoin's more than 20% rally this week has sent the cryptocurrency to heights it hasn't seen since May”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results explicitly state that Bitcoin had a more than 20% rally this week, lifting it above $77,000, its highest level since May.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. Originally designed as a medium of exchange, Bitc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Satoshi Nakamoto (fl. 31 October 2008 – 26 April 2011) is the name used by the presumed pseudonymous person or persons who developed bitcoin, authored the bitcoin white paper, and created and deploye…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bitcoin (abbreviation: BTC; sign: ₿) is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the p…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 2: “Bitcoin was last trading above $77,000.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm that Bitcoin's rally lifted it above $77,000.
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web search NEUTRAL — WHAT PURCHASES QUALIFY FOR THE REWARD? The Reward is approximately 2% of pre-tax purchases (less refunds) of most merchandise purchased through: front-end registers, most ancillary business registers …
https://customerservice.costco.com/app/answers/answer_view/a…
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web search NEUTRAL — Return or Cancel your Costco.ca order through our website Request a price adjustment for your Costco.ca order through our website Update your Costco.ca or Costco Membership account information Verify …
https://customerservice.costco.ca/app/answers/answer_view/a_…
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web search NEUTRAL — Welcome to the Costco Customer Service page. Explore our many helpful self-service options and learn more about popular topics.
https://customerservice.costco.ca/
info
Claim 3: “The contracts on Kalshi ask traders to place "yes" and "no" trades on whether the cryptocurrency will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on Jan. 1, 2027.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web search results confirm Kalshi offers binary 'yes/no' event contracts on various outcomes, none of the provided evidence specifically mentions the $5,000 ranges or the midnight Jan 1, 2027 deadline.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivis…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A number of financial analysts have identified significant signs of insider trading in the U.S. government during the second presidency of Donald Trump. Allegations of insider trading have focused on …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading_allegations_du…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 4: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple cross-references from CNBC explicitly confirm the commercial relationship, customer acquisition, and minority investment between CNBC and Kalshi.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/uber-and-lyft-report-earning…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/kalshi-traders-see-odds-risi…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/kalshi-traders-confident-sec…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders saw it most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results explicitly state that before Wednesday, Kalshi traders saw it most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi traders now expect bitcoin to end 2026 near $75,000, slightly below its current trading price. Bitcoin's more than 20% rally this week lifted it above $77,000, its highest level since May. Befo…
https://www.briefs.co/news/kalshi-traders-see-bitcoin-ending…
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web search NEUTRAL — Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders saw it most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000. However, speculators’ latest forecast would represent a slight decline from the cryptocurrency’s cur…
https://newyorkweeklytimes.com/2026/08/22/kalshi-traders-say…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi gives Bitcoin 83% odds of hitting $100,000 before $50,000, but a separate market prices only a 22% chance of actually touching $100,000 by December. The $50,000-first crash contract collapsed f…
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-hi…
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Claim 6: “Speculators estimate that bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be around $75,000, based on an average of contracts on the platform [Kalshi].”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that Kalshi traders/speculators expect Bitcoin to end 2026 near $75,000.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivis…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Galaxy Digital Inc., doing business as Galaxy, is an American financial services and infrastructure company headquartered in New York City. The company focuses on digital assets, cryptocurrency, block…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy_Digital_(company)
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 7: “Bitcoin's surge this week has been powered by two key catalysts: an intervention by the U.S. Treasury to ease a sell-off in the bond market... and an event at the White House where President Donald Trump, crypto executives and regulators pushed for Congress to approve the market structure Clarity Act proposal.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence includes general Wikipedia entries for the Treasury and White House, but no source confirms the specific catalysts mentioned (Treasury intervention in bond market or a specific White House event regarding the Clarity Act).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Thomas Regan (December 21, 1918 – June 10, 2003) was an American government official and business executive who served as the 66th United States secretary of the treasury from 1981 to 1985 and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Regan
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Scott Kenneth Homer Bessent ( BESS-ənt; born August 21, 1962) is an American businessman, financial commentator, and government official serving since 2025 as the 79th United States secretary of the t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Bessent
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The White House State Ballroom is part of a new East Wing under construction at the White House, the official residence of the president of the United States. The new East Wing will replace the previo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_State_Ballroom
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 8: “Contracts are resolved using bitcoin price data from CF Benchmarks.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence discusses Kalshi's fee structures and general operations, but does not mention CF Benchmarks as the price data source for contract resolution.
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web search NEUTRAL — Discover videos related to How to Use Kalshi without Social Security on TikTok. Last updated 2026-07-13.Funds use it to hedge outcome risk, not just price risk. NBA and NFL teams are already insuring …
https://www.tiktok.com/discover/how-to-use-kalshi-without-so…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for …
https://kalshi.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi also uses a probability-sensitive transaction-fee formula. Its general fee schedule has historically used the number of contracts and price uncertainty to calculate the fee, and some markets ca…
https://tradingvps.io/polymarket-vs-kalshi-in-2026-full-pred…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.