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Kalshi and Polymarket vie for Washington influence as Congress contemplates regulation

Cnbc · · 1911 words · By Justin Papp; Garrett Downs
Insider Trading Concerns Regulatory Scrutiny Political Influence
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/kalshi-and-polymarket-congress-regulation-washin…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Whataboutism 70% confidence
Deflecting criticism by pointing to a different issue.
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Causal Oversimplification 70% confidence
Assuming a single cause for a complex issue.
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Doubt 80% confidence
Questioning the credibility of a source or claim without providing evidence.
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Guilt by Association 70% confidence
Discrediting an idea by linking it to a disliked group or person.
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Appeal to Hypocrisy 90% confidence
Dismissing someone's argument because their behavior contradicts it.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

15 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

help Insufficient Evidence 6
schedule Pending 5
info Single Source 2
verified Verified By Reference 2
info
“Kalshi launched an ad campaign in Washington featuring statements like 'We ban insider trading' and 'We operate under U.S. law'.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web search results mention Kalshi's regulated status and discussions about insider trading enforcement, but no direct confirmation of a Washington ad campaign with the specific statements cited.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshiis a regulated exchange & prediction market where you cantradeon the outcome of real-world events.Markets over MonopoliesHow fair markets protect consumers. Responsible TradingTools and tips for…
https://kalshi.com/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — WhenKalshifounders Tarek and Luana appeared on the Axios Show, the conversation quickly turned pointed as host Dan Primack pressed them on the Trump family’sfinancial ties to prediction markets and th…
https://rudevulture.com/trump-family-has-financial-stakes-in…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — WashingtonPost, "How does Google’smonopoly hurt you?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/19/google-…
info
“Kalshi dominates the U.S. prediction market space with approximately 90% market share according to a Bank of America report.”
SINGLE SOURCE
A 2025 Prediction Market Review mentions Kalshi's market share data, but the claim attributes it to Bank of America, which is not explicitly cited in the evidence.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Intrade.com was a web-based trading exchange whose members "traded" contracts between each other on the probabilities of various events occurring. After having been forced to exclude US traders in 201…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Plus500 is an Israeli-founded, London-based firm that provides online trading services in contracts for difference (CFDs), share dealing, futures trading, and options on futures. It is listed on the L…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus500
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Susquehanna International Group is a privately held global trading and technology firm. Susquehanna comprises a number of affiliated entities specializing in trading and proprietary investments in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susquehanna_International_Grou…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Sports account for nearly 90% of bets made on Kalshi in the last year, according to the Congressional Research Service.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Multiple web search results directly cite the Congressional Research Service stating sports account for 89-90% of Kalshi's bets, matching the claim.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi'sNFL contracts accounted for more than 40% of trading volume on the platform in September, withsportsmaking up roughly90%ofall volume.
https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Sacra estimates thatKalshigenerated $260M in revenue in 2025, up 994%year-over-yearfrom $24M in 2024. The company processed $22.88B in trading volume in 2025, with fees representing ~1.2% of total vol…
https://sacra.com/c/kalshi/
+ 1 more evidence source
verified
“A Polymarket user earned $400,000 by correctly predicting the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about a Polymarket user earning $400,000 from predicting Maduro's ouster.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 60 Minutes' 58th season began on September 28, 2025 to the present time. The line-up of correspondents is the same as season 57. The correspondents include : Sharyn Alfonsi, Anderson Cooper, Scott Pel…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60_Minutes_season_58
help
“Kalshi spent $615,000 on lobbying in 2025 according to OpenSecrets.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about Kalshi's 2025 lobbying expenditure.
help
“Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and prohibits anonymous user accounts.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about Kalshi's CFTC regulation and anonymous accounts.
help
“The CFTC regulates prediction markets as 'designated contract markets' under the Commodity Exchange Act.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about CFTC regulating prediction markets as designated contract markets.
help
“Polymarket is headquartered in New York but operates an international platform not regulated by U.S. authorities.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about Polymarket's unregulated international operations.
help
“Kalshi suspended and referred an editor for Mr. Beast to federal authorities for alleged insider trading.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about Kalshi suspending an editor for Mr. Beast.
help
“Kalshi refunded bettors for wagers on the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing federal regulations.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence found in web search or Wikipedia to support the claim about Kalshi refunding bets on Khamenei's death.
schedule
“Polymarket allows bets on war and military actions but claims users rely on its data for real-time information.”
PENDING
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“At least eight prediction market bills have been introduced in Congress since January 2025.”
PENDING
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“The Trump family has invested in and advised both Kalshi and Polymarket.”
PENDING
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“The White House issued a staff-wide warning against placing Iran war bets on prediction markets.”
PENDING
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“Kalshi and Polymarket spent $615,000 and $360,000 respectively on lobbying in 2025.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.