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Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?

The Conversation · · 929 words · By Adi Imsirovic
Global Energy Markets Geopolitical Influence of the Middle East vs. Americas Oil Production Economics

The article discusses the resilience of the global oil market during a conflict in Iran, attributing this stability to increased production from the Americas. It concludes that while the Americas are becoming a significant 'swing producer,' the Middle East maintains a long-term advantage due to lower extraction costs and strategic geography.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-the-oil-world-282926

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

16 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 6
schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 2
cancel Disputed 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“prices have generally hovered around US$100 (£75) per barrel”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results indicate oil prices have soared past or remained above $100 a barrel due to geopolitical tensions.
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web search NEUTRAL — Fears over the global economy have been stoked by the oil price soaring past $100 a barrel as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/09/how-high-co…
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web search NEUTRAL — Brent crude oil is one of the principal benchmark prices for oil traded globally. Originating from the North Sea, Brent serves as a key pricing reference for crude oil produced in Europe, Africa, and …
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil prices remained elevated Wednesday despite slight declines in global benchmarks, with investors closely watching the growing diplomatic standoff between the United States and Iran.
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/oil-prices-stay-above-…
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“the International Energy Agency predicted that virtually all global oil demand growth in 2026 could be met by rising supply from North and South American countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific prediction regarding 2026 demand growth being met by North and South American countries is found in one specific article ('Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?'). Other IEA results discuss general demand growth but not this specific regional breakdown for 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — LONDON - Global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predic…
https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1179565/business/energy/…
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web search NEUTRAL — Even before the war, the International Energy Agency predicted that virtually all global oil demand growth in 2026 could be met by rising supply from North and South American countries such as the US,…
https://theconversation.com/is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-t…
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web search NEUTRAL — Global oil and gas demand is set to grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its World Energy Outlook 2025 report , released on Nov.This is a nearly 9 percent increase from the…
https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/iea-predicts-world-oi…
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“The closure of Hormuz has removed up to 14 million barrels a day from the market”
DISPUTED
Sources provide conflicting numbers on the impact of the closure. One source states it removes '20 percent' of supply, another mentions '20 million barrels per day' typically pass through, while the claim specifies 'up to 14 million barrels'.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz highlighted by a red box, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Map.a third of its oil via the strait, and had about a billion barrels in oil reserve (a few months of supply).[41] …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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web search NEUTRAL — The closure of the Strait of Hormuz removes 20 percent — and unlike previous crises, it affects not just oil but liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, aluminum, and dozens of other commodities that flow …
https://novarapress.net/strait-hormuz-global-economy/
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web search NEUTRAL — About 20 million barrels of oil per day typically pass through the strait. Some countries, including the U.S., do have stockpiles, and some producers in the Gulf region can redirect oil away from the …
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5736104/iran-war-oil-tr…
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“In the US, crude exports rose to a record 6.44 million barrels a day in April”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific figure of 6.44 million barrels a day in April is mentioned in the article 'Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?', but not corroborated by the other general US-related search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — The three largest airlines in the world, by total number of passengers carried, are U.S.-based; American Airlines became the global leader after its 2013 merger with US Airways. [405]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States
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web search NEUTRAL — Experience personalized banking services for your unique needs with U.S. Bank - Checking, credit cards, home loans & convenient online banking. Member FDIC.
https://www.usbank.com/index.html
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web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · News • Community college student from Michigan to be 1st woman to represent US at world welding competition • May 17, 2026, 7:34 AM ET (AP) ...(Show more)
https://www.britannica.com/place/United-States
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“nearly 800,000 barrels a day of additional dock capacity due to come online in 2026”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific detail about 800,000 barrels of additional dock capacity in 2026 is only found in one source.
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web search NEUTRAL — US oil refinery distillation capacity (left). Gross inputs to refineries (left). Percent utilization of refinery operable capacity (right).Largest petroleum refining companies in the United States. Ra…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_refining_in_the_Unit…
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web search NEUTRAL — In the US, crude exports rose to a record 6.44 million barrels a day in April. It is also adding new export infrastructure, with nearly 800,000 barrels a day of additional dock capacity due to come on…
https://theconversation.com/is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-t…
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web search NEUTRAL — Top oil production by country. Bar chart shows global oil production in 2024, with the United States leading at 22,844 million barrels per day. Read on for a look at the 10 top oil producing countries…
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-in…
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“Brazil has added eight new offshore floating oil production vessels in recent years, with a combined capacity approaching 1.5 million barrels a day”
SINGLE SOURCE
The detail regarding eight new vessels with a combined capacity of 1.5 million barrels is only reported in one source.
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web search NEUTRAL — Meanwhile, Brazil has added eight new offshore floating oil production vessels in recent years, with a combined capacity approaching 1.5 million barrels a day. Its oil production is also expected to r…
https://theconversation.com/is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-t…
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web search NEUTRAL — (Reuters) – ADNOC Drilling is ready to expand the United Arab Emirates’ oil production capacity beyond its current target of 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 if the Gulf state gives the green l…
https://energynow.com/2026/05/adnoc-drilling-ready-to-expand…
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web search NEUTRAL — Daily Oil Production (barrels/day).Crude oil production is defined as the quantity of crude oil (measured in barrels) that a country’s oil industry has extracted from the ground and filtered for inert…
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-produ…
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“Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, recently started a new production project at one of these vessels in the Búzios field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro”
SINGLE SOURCE
While Wikipedia and other sources confirm Petrobras is a state oil company in Rio de Janeiro, no provided evidence specifically mentions a new production project in the 'Búzios field' recently.
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web search NEUTRAL — Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., better known by and trading as the portmanteau Petrobras (Portuguese pronunciation: [ˌpɛtɾoˈbɾas, pet-]), is a Brazilian majority state-owned multinational corporation in the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrobras
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web search NEUTRAL — We use our energy to transform the petroleum and gas industry and lead a fair, inclusive, and secure energy transition for all Brazilian people.
https://petrobras.com.br/en
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web search NEUTRAL — Petrobras is a Brazil-based integrated energy company controlled by the Brazilian government. The company focuses on the exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazilian offshore fields.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PBR/?fr=sycsrp_catchall
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“Guyanese oil output has already reached around 900,000 barrels a day”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (Guyana Times and the article 'Is the Gulf losing its grip on the oil world?') confirm that Guyana's oil output has reached approximately 900,000 barrels per day.
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web search NEUTRAL — The petroleum industry in Guyana is rapidly expanding. The country has emerged as one of the newest petroleum-producing nations in the world, achieving its first commercial grade crude oil draw in Dec…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Guyana
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web search NEUTRAL — Guyana’s offshore oil production has reached a new milestone, with daily output hitting 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the Stabroek Block, according to ExxonMobil Guyana Limited and its co-venturers…
https://guyanatimesgy.com/guyanas-oil-production-hits-900000…
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web search NEUTRAL — Guyanese oil output has already reached around 900,000 barrels a day and could almost double by the end of the decade. Even Venezuela, long associated with declining oil production and economic crisis…
https://theconversation.com/is-the-gulf-losing-its-grip-on-t…
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“the Americas are expected to produce around 30 million barrels of oil per day later in 2026”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute the projection of 30 million barrels per day for the Americas in late 2026.
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“The US alone remains the world’s largest producer, with its total production of liquid hydrocarbons reaching almost 22 million barrels a day in April”
SINGLE SOURCE
One source (INN) states the US leads with 22,844 million barrels per day in 2024, which aligns with the 'almost 22 million' claim, but the specific 'April' timing and 'liquid hydrocarbons' phrasing is not corroborated by multiple sources.
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“the Saudis need oil prices of at least US$90 a barrel [to finance projects linked to its economic diversification plans]”
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“In some fields, Saudi Arabia and neighbouring producers can extract oil for less than US$10 a barrel”
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“Across the Gulf region more broadly, average production costs are estimated at roughly US$27 a barrel”
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“much of North American shale production requires prices closer to between US$50 and US$65 a barrel to remain profitable”
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“The United Arab Emirates is expanding pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, including upgrading its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline”
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“Saudi Arabia already operates its vast East-West Pipeline, which is capable of transporting 7 million barrels per day of oil to the Red Sea”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.