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Is betting on elections using prediction markets illegal? Many states are unsure as midterms approach

Cnbc · · 1140 words · By Davis Giangiulio
Legality of Prediction Markets Election Integrity and Regulation Jurisdictional Conflict (State vs. Federal)
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What to know about Legality of Prediction Markets

Wisconsin sent prediction market platforms spinning last month when its election commission released a directive reminding voters that betting on elections — including via trades on event contract exchanges — is illegal in the state, based on a more than…

Claims checked 11
Techniques found 1
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center80%
Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Wisconsin sent prediction market platforms spinning last month when its election commission released a directive reminding voters that betting on elections — including via trades on event contract exchanges — is illegal in the state, based on a more than…

Why it matters

What shocked people was the penalty that Wisconsin places on those who break its law: violators lose the right to vote in the election they bet on.

Common ground

Prediction market platform Kalshi blasted the law.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/do-state-election-betting-bans-apply-to-predicti…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 5
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 2
schedule Pending 1
check_circle Corroborated 1
info
Claim 1: “In March, the Maryland State Board of Elections in a memo to voters said that users should exercise caution when considering trading elections on prediction market platforms, warning that it could amount to violating the state's law banning wagering on elections.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim is indirectly supported by the context of Claim 6's evidence (which mentions a warning issued 'weeks after' the July letter), but there is no specific evidence provided for a March memo from the Maryland State Board of Elections.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia parti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Maryland State Board of Censors was a three-member agency in the U.S. state of Maryland from 1916 to 1981. No film could be officially released in the state without the approval of the board, whic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_State_Board_of_Censor…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Republic of Maryland (also known variously as the Independent State of Maryland, Maryland-in-Africa, and Maryland in Liberia) was a country in West Africa that existed from 1834 to 1857, when it w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Maryland
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 2: “Due to court orders in Michigan, which also bans election wagering, Kalshi is currently in a total operational shutdown in the state while Polymarket only blocks residents' access to its sports-related event contracts.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
help
Claim 3: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sees all event contracts as swaps, a derivative that it regulates”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
schedule
Claim 4: “In 2024, a federal appeals court ruled that event contract platforms can feature election offerings.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 5: “New York also doesn't allow voters to cast a ballot in an election that they've bet on”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided for New York discusses 'electioneering' and the legality of showing ballots, but does not mention laws prohibiting voting if one has bet on the election.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Fox News host Sean Hannity apparently tweeted pictures of his ballot today. This may be a misdemeanor under New York State elections law which prohibits voters from showing a ballot “after it is prepa…
https://archive.thinkprogress.org/the-thinkprogress-election…
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web search NEUTRAL — 16, 2025, in New York. (Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP).
https://fox8.com/news/1008883/
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web search NEUTRAL — The New York State Board of Elections told county commissioners that the U.S. Supreme Court's decision has no direct impact on New York law. New York law prohibits "electioneering," which means statem…
https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2018/06/voters_who_wear_ca…
verified
Claim 6: “In Colorado, betting on an election is a class 2 misdemeanor punishable by up to 120 days in jail or a $750 fine.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence discusses general misdemeanor classifications in Colorado and other states, but does not specifically link betting on an election to a class 2 misdemeanor with those specific penalties.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bally's Corporation is an American gambling, betting, and interactive entertainment company headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. In the US it operates 19 casinos across 11 states, a horse track …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bally's_Corporation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Circa Sports is an American sportsbook operator based in Las Vegas. It was founded by casino owner Derek Stevens and began operations on June 1, 2019. It is named after Stevens' Circa Resort & Casino …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circa_Sports
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Gaming Innovation Group. (usually styled GiG) is an iGaming company offering iGaming platform, sportsbook and AI services to its B2B partners. The company is listed on the Nasdaq First North Growth M…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaming_Innovation_Group
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 7: “violators lose the right to vote in the election they bet on.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general Wikipedia entries about Wisconsin geography and the state government home page; none of the sources mention the loss of voting rights for betting on elections.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Wisconsin[a] is a state in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions of the United States. It borders Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, Mi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Wisconsin, a state in the Midwestern United States, has a vast and diverse geography famous for its landforms created by glaciers during the Wisconsin glaciation 17,000 years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Wisconsin
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Home of dairy farming, cheesemaking, ethnic festivals, polka and the badger. Residents are kindly referred to as Wisconsinites and Cheeseheads. Welcome to Wisconsin. As governor, Tony Evers will focus…
https://www.wisconsin.gov/Pages/home.aspx
info
Claim 8: “Nevada bans betting on elections, but court rulings have forced Polymarket and Kalshi to cease operating in the state.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided consists of general Wikipedia entries about Nevada's geography and cities; it contains no information about election betting laws or court rulings against Polymarket and Kalshi in Nevada.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Nevada is the seventh-most extensive and the 31st-most populous U.S. state. Nearly three-quarters of Nevada's population live in Clark County, which contains the Las Vegas–Paradise metropolitan area. …
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Reno (/ ˈriː.noʊ /, REE-noh) is a city in the northwest section of the U.S. state of Nevada, along the Nevada–California border. It is the county seat and most populous city of Washoe County. Sitting …
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno,_Nevada
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Nevada is one of the United States ' states. Its capital is Carson City. The largest city is Las Vegas. Other big cities are Henderson and Reno. More than two-thirds of the people live in the Las Vega…
https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada
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Claim 9: “Then, in July, the state's administrator of elections Jared DeMarinis wrote a letter to the office of the state prosecutor to investigate whether prediction markets' election offerings violate Maryland's law.”
CORROBORATED
Three independent web search results confirm that Maryland State Election Administrator Jared DeMarinis wrote a letter to the state prosecutor (Charlton T. Howard III) requesting an investigation into prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — David Stewart (September 13, 1800 – January 5, 1858) was an attorney and politician from Baltimore, Maryland. A Democrat, he was most notable for his service in the Maryland Senate and his brief servi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Stewart_(Maryland_politi…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Keiffer Jackson Mitchell Jr. (born September 28, 1967) is an American politician and government official who served as the chief legislative officer for Maryland Governor Larry Hogan from 2019 to 2022…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiffer_Mitchell_Jr.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Maryland Freedom Caucus is a legislative caucus in the Maryland House of Delegates that promotes highly conservative policies focusing on limited governance, low taxes, and immigration enforcement…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_Freedom_Caucus
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 10: “Wisconsin sent prediction market platforms spinning last month when its election commission released a directive reminding voters that betting on elections — including via trades on event contract exchanges — is illegal in the state, based on a more than 175-year-old law.”
SINGLE SOURCE
One web search result explicitly mirrors the claim's phrasing regarding the Wisconsin election commission's directive and the 175-year-old law. However, no other independent news sources or official government documents were provided in the evidence to corroborate this.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1871 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 1871. Republican Cadwallader C. Washburn was elected with 53% of the vote, defeating Democratic candidate James Rood Doolittle. Incumb…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1871_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_e…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election was an election to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Wisconsin. It resulted in voters re-electing incumbent Republican governor Scott Walke…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_r…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elec…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 11: “Twenty-three states have laws on the books that ban betting on elections, according to Pew Research Center.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While the evidence includes several links to Pew Research Center and The Pew Charitable Trusts, none of the provided snippets mention a study or statistic regarding 23 states banning election betting.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This list shows the distribution of the Buddhist religion, practiced by about 320 million people, representing 4.1% of the world's total population as of 2020. By sheer numbers, Thailand accounts for …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism_by_country
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The degree of religiosity in the population of the United States can be compared to that in other countries and compared state-by-state, based on individual self-assessment and polling data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Pew Charitable Trusts is an independent non-profit, non-governmental organization (NGO), founded in 1948. Pew's stated mission is to serve the public interest by "improving public policy, informin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pew_Charitable_Trusts
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.