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Iran war spikes fertiliser costs by 59% — what farmers are doing in response

Daily Maverick · · 1169 words · By Daniélle Schaafsma
Food Security Agricultural Economics Regenerative Agriculture Supply Chain Vulnerability
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-05-11-sa-farmers-turn-to-new-strate…

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 4
check_circle Corroborated 4
schedule Pending 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“According to Rabobank’s April 2026 semiannual fertiliser outlook, the strait carries roughly 30% of global urea exports, 27% of ammonia, 24% of phosphates and 48% of sulfur”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results discuss the importance of the Gulf region and the Strait for fertilizer exports (mentioning 20-30% of global exports), none of the provided sources specifically cite a 'Rabobank April 2026 semiannual fertiliser outlook' or the specific percentages (30%, 27%, 24%, 48%) mentioned in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), which is the world's largest single site for urea exports and the supplier of 14% of the world's urea, has been offline for almost a month since Qatar ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/03/visual-guide-g…
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web search NEUTRAL — We have heard about oil and natural gas, but what about fertilizer? About 27% of the world's oil exports, 20% of global liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, and 20%-30% of global fertilizer exports, i…
https://clime.com.au/fertilizer-a-critical-dependency/
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web search NEUTRAL — Urea The region's role in urea production is even more important. Urea remains the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer globally. The Gulf countries accounted for 36% of global urea exports from 2023-…
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-wars-impacts-on-global-f…
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“Grain SA’s April 2026 input monitoring report shows that local prices of urea, a widely used nitrogen fertiliser, rose 59% in a single month.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim is explicitly mentioned in one MSN search result citing Grain SA's April 2026 report. Other sources discuss urea prices generally but do not corroborate the specific 59% single-month rise for South African local prices.
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web search NEUTRAL — Grain SA's April 2026 input monitoring report shows that local prices of urea, a widely used nitrogen fertiliser, rose 59% in a single month. MAP, a key phosphate fertiliser, rose 26%.
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/sa-farmers-turn-to-new-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Urea rose to 616.25 USD/T on May 6, 2026, up 6.71% from the previous day. Over the past month, Urea's price has fallen 12.96%, but it is still 25.32% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a …
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urea
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web search NEUTRAL — Understand fast-moving urea markets with up-to-date pricing, trade flow data and analysis of the multiple factors impacting global prices.
https://www.icis.com/explore/commodities/fertilizers/urea-ni…
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“MAP, a key phosphate fertiliser, rose 26%. Potassium chloride climbed 11%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The rise of MAP by 26% is mentioned in the same MSN article as Claim 1. There is no second independent source corroborating the 26% for MAP or the 11% for potassium chloride in the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — By contrast, April cereal prices rose just 0.8% from March and were up 0.4% from a year ago, reflecting modestly higher prices for the likes of wheat and maize linked to weather concerns, rising ferti…
https://www.thepigsite.com/news/2026/05/world-food-prices-hi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Potassium chloride can be extracted from sylvinite, a mineral mixture of sodium chloride (halite) and potassium chloride (sylvite)
https://www.britannica.com/science/potassium-chloride
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web search NEUTRAL — Price Map | USA and Local National Gas Station Price Heat Map - GasB…
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap
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“the country imports more than 80% of its annual fertiliser requirement of roughly two million tonnes, sourcing from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, Oman, China, Germany and Chile.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources confirm that South Africa imports roughly 80% of its annual fertilizer requirements. Sources include a general search result on SA farmers monitoring costs and a report on food price calm.
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web search NEUTRAL — South Los Angeles is an urban region in southwestern Los Angeles County, California, United States, lying mostly within the city limits of Los Angeles, south of downtown.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Los_Angeles
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web search NEUTRAL — Jan 28, 2026 · Read on for things to do, places to see, and eats to enjoy while in South LA. From budget to luxury, the perfect hotel is waiting to host your trip to Los Angeles. Browse the Discover L…
https://www.discoverlosangeles.com/things-to-do/the-guide-to…
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web search NEUTRAL — From Catalan to Vietnamese—“South Los Angeles” goes by many names. Explore places such as Broadway-Manchester and Vermont Vista. Delve into Hollywood, San Fernando Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and Long…
https://mapcarta.com/Los_Angeles/South
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“Fertiliser is a big component of South African farmers’ input costs – it accounts for 35%”
CORROBORATED
Three separate web results explicitly state that fertilizer accounts for 35% of grain farmers' input costs in South Africa.
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web search NEUTRAL — Fertiliser accounts for 35 per cent of grain farmers' input costs and a substantial share for other crops. South Africa imports roughly 80 per cent of its annual fertiliser requirements.
https://www.freshplaza.com/africa/article/9822641/south-afri…
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web search NEUTRAL — Grain SA and Fertilizer Association of Southern Africa ( FERTASA) have warned ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised oil prices and will impact South African farmers with higher fertiliser and…
https://businessreport.co.za/economy/2026-03-31-middle-east-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Fertiliser accounts for roughly 35% of grain farmers’ input costs, while diesel contributes between 20% and 30% across the agricultural sector. With around 80% of grain transported by road, fuel costs…
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/south-africas-food-price-calm…
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“Grain SA puts the figure even higher, noting in its April 2026 input monitoring report that fertiliser makes up between 30% and 50% of a typical grain and oilseed producer’s variable production costs.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While sources discuss Grain SA and rising input costs, none of the provided evidence snippets contain the specific range of '30% to 50% of a typical grain and oilseed producer’s variable production costs'.
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web search NEUTRAL — Diesel accounts for between 13% and 15% of a grain and oilseed producer’s variable production costs. Since South Africa imports a significant part of the diesel for domestic use, this leaves the agric…
https://timesnetwork.co.za/grain-sa-input-costs-now-threaten…
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web search NEUTRAL — SOUTH AFRICA – Grain SA has warned that South Africa’s grain and oilseed producers face increasing pressure from surging diesel and fertiliser costs as global energy markets react to ongoing conflict …
https://millingmea.com/grain-sa-urges-action-to-shield-farme…
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web search NEUTRAL — About 80% of South African grain and oilseeds are transported by road countrywide, from storage to milling and export facilities. The risk of higher fuel prices covers the entire sector. The pressures…
https://www.businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-03-11-wandile-sih…
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“According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy and Absa Agribusiness’s April 2026 food inflation brief, Brent crude oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel following the conflict’s escalation.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources discuss Brent crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel in the context of conflict escalation, including a YouTube title and a Citi forecast mentioning $110-$120 per barrel for Q2 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — #Brentcrude #oilprices #RussiaUkraineYahoo Finance's Ines Ferre details the negative market action as the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushes crude oil prices...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLbU004sX9o
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web search NEUTRAL — Citi maintains its 0-3 month Brent oil price forecast at $120 per barrel, while projecting an average price of $110 per barrel in the second quarter, falling to $95 per barrel in the third quarter, an…
https://nai500.com/blog/2026/05/the-crisis-in-the-strait-of-…
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web search NEUTRAL — International crude oil prices pared early gains and fell nearly 3 percent from intraday highs on April 1, 2026, as hopes of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict boosted market sentiment.
https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/crude-oil-prices-sl…
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“Fuel accounted for roughly 13% of a grain farmer’s production costs”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (OFM and MSN) explicitly state that fuel accounts for roughly 13% of a grain farmer's input/production costs.
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web search NEUTRAL — Fertiliser accounts for a substantial share of grain farmers' input costs, typically about 35%, and a large share of other value chains' input costs. As South Africa's agricultural sector is export-or…
https://www.businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-03-11-wandile-sih…
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web search NEUTRAL — Importance of global stability "If Middle East tensions escalate or persist into the planting season, farmers may face significantly higher production costs." He emphasised that fuel accounts for roug…
https://www.ofm.co.za/article/news/337536/how-geopolitics-in…
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web search NEUTRAL — According to Sihlobo, fuel accounts for roughly 13% of farmers' input costs, and recent increases are expected to have a pronounced impact as harvesting activity intensifies—particularly in ...
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/disease-outbreaks-risin…
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“Rabobank’s April 2026 fertiliser affordability index has moved decisively into negative territory”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding Rabobank's fertilizer affordability index for April 2026.
help
“Maverick Citizen’s tracking of 14 basic food items that can be bought with the R370 Social Relief of Distress grant found that the basket rose by R16 between March and April 2026, reaching R423.86”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results regarding Maverick Citizen's tracking of food items or the specific R423.86 basket price.
schedule
“surplus phosphorus and nitrogen, previously used in explosives manufacturing, were redirected into agricultural fertiliser production and actively marketed to farmers worldwide [after World War 2]”
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“His company’s EcoDelta programme rebuilds soil biology through organic inputs and compost tea applications, reducing synthetic fertiliser use by between 50% and 100%.”
PENDING
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“Ecosoil’s own data also shows a 6% production increase in canola and 10% in barley using its biological programme.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.