'Indian Niño' drove record heat in 2023 and 2024, new study finds

Phys · May 06, 2026 · 1066 words · By University

University of Maryland researchers have published a study in Earth System Dynamics attributing a significant portion of the record-breaking global temperatures in 2023 and 2024 to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The research also considers the roles of greenhouse gas emissions and shipping industry regulations in contributing to the temperature surge.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-indian-nio-drove.html

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10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

verified Verified By Reference 4

schedule Pending 4

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 1

verified

“In 2023 and 2024, Earth's average global surface temperature spiked nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius above what was already expected from climate change.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided Wikipedia results discuss the 2023-2024 El Niño and a heat wave in India, but none of the evidence mentions a specific spike of 0.3 degrees Celsius above climate change expectations.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — From April 2024 to June 2024, a severe and long heat wave affected India. The heat wave occurred during the Indian summer or pre-monsoon, which typically lasts from March to June, with peak temperatur…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_heat_wave

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a timeline of humanity's understanding of the shape and size of the planet Earth from antiquity to modern scientific measurements. The Earth has the general shape of a sphere, but it is oblate…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Earth_estimates

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“Each year was declared the hottest on record”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent news sources (EuroNews, Deutsche Welle, and Phys) confirm that 2023 and 2024 were the hottest years on record.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–24 NBA season was the 78th season of the National Basketball Association (NBA). The regular season began on October 24, 2023, and ended on April 14, 2024. The NBA held their first-ever in-sea…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–24_NBA_season

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Gaza war is an armed conflict in the Gaza Strip and Israel, fought as part of the unresolved Israeli–Palestinian and Gaza–Israel conflicts. The war began on 7 October 2023, when the Palestinian mi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An ongoing conflict between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel began on 8 October 2023, when Hezbollah launched rockets and artillery at Israeli positions following Hamas's October 7 att…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah–Israel_conflict_(202…

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“University of Maryland researchers propose a novel answer: They attribute part of the temperature surge to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate cycle similar to El Niño.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided consists of general Wikipedia entries about a meteorologist, Indian inventions, and oceanography. There is no mention of a specific study by University of Maryland researchers attributing temperature surges to the IOD.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bhupendra Nath Goswami (born 1950) is an Indian meteorologist, climatologist, a former director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). and a Pisharoty Chair Professor at the Indian In…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhupendra_Nath_Goswami

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This list of Indian inventions and discoveries details the inventions, scientific discoveries and contributions of India, including those from the historic Indian subcontinent and the modern-day Repub…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_inventions_and_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following outline is provided as an overview of and introduction to Oceanography. Oceanography (from Ancient Greek ὠκεανός (ōkeanós) 'ocean' and γραφή (graphḗ) 'writing'), also known as oceanol…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outline_of_oceanography

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“The variables they considered could explain 93% of the global surface temperature anomaly in 2023 and 92% in 2024”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The web search results provide general WMO climate definitions and reports, and Wikipedia entries about Maryland elections and the university, but none contain the specific statistical claims (93% and 92%) regarding a climate model's explanation of temperature anomalies.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A general election was held in the U.S. state of Maryland on November 5, 2024. In addition to the U.S. presidential race, Maryland voters elected all of its seats in the United States House of Represe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Maryland_elections

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia parti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The University of Maryland, College Park (University of Maryland, UMD, or simply Maryland) is a public land-grant research university in College Park, Maryland, United States, near Washington, D.C. Fo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Maryland,_Colleg…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“When the researchers omitted the IOD from the model, they could only account for 69% of the temperature spike in 2023 and 77% in 2024.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence contains grammatical discussions about the word 'without' and unrelated spaceflight/cyclone data. There is no evidence regarding the researchers' model or the percentages (69% and 77%) mentioned in the claim.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Artemis II (April 1–11, 2026) was a crewed flyby of the Moon. It was the first crewed flight of the NASA-led Artemis program and the first crewed flight beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972.…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_II

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This article lists orbital and suborbital launches during the first half of the year 2024. For all other spaceflight activities, see 2024 in spaceflight. For launches in the second half of 2024, see L…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_i…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — During 2024, tropical cyclones formed in seven major bodies of water, commonly known as tropical cyclone basins. Tropical cyclones are named by various weather agencies when they attain maximum sustai…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_in_2024

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

“The IOD, sometimes called "Indian Niňo," refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean's western and eastern sides.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search results returned information about 'Indian Motorcycle' (the vehicle brand), which is completely irrelevant to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate phenomenon.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The true expression of the American cruiser motorcycle, built with purpose, precision, & pride. Find price and colors for the 2026 Indian Chief Vintage Motorcycle.
https://www.indianmotorcycle.com/en-us/chief-motorcycles/chi…

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web search NEUTRAL — The new Indian Motorcycle lineup builds on our reputation for performance and innovation. Explore Standard, Cruiser, Bagger, Elite, and Touring models.
https://www.indianmotorcycle.com/en-us/motorcycles/

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web search NEUTRAL — Founded in 1901, Indian Motorcycle is an American brand of motorcycles manufactured in Spirit Lake, Iowa. Designed to embody Indian Motorcycles reputation for innovation, performance and style without…
https://www.indianmotorcycle.com/en-us/

info

“The IOD was only discovered in the late 1990s”

SINGLE SOURCE

Similar to claim 5, the search results provided information about the founding of Indian Motorcycle in 1901, not the discovery of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the 1990s.

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info

“2023, which was one of the two most extreme IOD events since modern recordings began around 1850.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The only web search result provided is about a company called 'Obscuro Limited' and its administration in 2026, which is entirely unrelated to IOD events in 2023.

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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 26, 2026 · Appointment of Administrators In the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in Bristol, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD) Court Number: CR-2026-000048 OBSCURO LIMITED (Compa…
https://insolvencyintel.co.uk/fiirm/rsm-restructuring-adviso…

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“The IOD affected global temperatures almost as much as ENSO in 2023 and nearly half as much in 2024.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

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“the new study found that in 2023 and 2024, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased temperatures by about 0.022 degrees Celsius per year”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

schedule

“the International Maritime Organization implemented a regulation in 2020 that limited the allowable amount of sulfur in ship fuel.”

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“In 2023 and 2024, that caused heating equivalent to up to 25% to 30% of that caused by the recent rise in greenhouse gases, per the new study.”

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“It represents about 20% of the roughly 1.5 degrees Celsius Earth has warmed since 1850”

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“Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024, Earth System Dynamics (2026). On EGUsphere: DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-4865”

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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

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'Indian Niño' drove record heat in 2023 and 2024, new study finds

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