How two wars and El Nino could fuel world hunger

Deutsche Welle · 🇩🇪 public Germany · Jul 29, 2026 · 884 words · By Nik Martin

Geopolitical Conflict Global Food Security Climate Impact (El Niño)

headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing

Generate a natural audio summary of this story

Daily briefing

What to know about Geopolitical Conflict

How two wars and El Nino could fuel world hunger July 29, 2026 A potentially record-strength El Nino is now intensifying across the Pacific, bringing either drought or flooding to the world's key farming regions.

Claims checked 12

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

Earlier this month, the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 63% chance that the unusual weather pattern could be "very strong" this year.

Common ground

JP Morgan, meanwhile, warned last week that El Nino, combined with $100 (€88) oil prices, could spike food inflation by up to 1.5%.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Geopolitical Conflict story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that India produces nearly a third of the world’s rice, the vast majority of which is consumed domestically?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dw.com/en/how-two-wars-and-el-nino-could-fuel-world-hunger/a-7812643…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Appeal to Fear 60% confidence

Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 3

verified Verified By Reference 3

schedule Pending 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 2

info

Claim 1: “India produces nearly a third of the world’s rice, the vast majority of which is consumed domestically.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While one source mentions India's domination of the rice trade and another mentions global consumption, there is no specific corroboration for the 'nearly a third' figure and domestic consumption ratio in the provided evidence.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Rice Industry Statistics. Rice is the staple for 4.9 billion people, with global per capita consumption at 68.7 kg in 2022. Asia drives about 90% of rice use, while West Africa averages 30 kg and the …
https://worldmetrics.org/rice-industry-statistics/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — India has nearly doubled the amount of rice it exported over the past decade, with shipments crossing 20 million metric tons in the latest fiscal year. But many rice farmers in the country’s agricultu…
https://thesentimes.com/indias-domination-of-global-rice-tra…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — India's buffalo meat exports hit 1.24M metric tons in 2024, up 17% in 5 years! Key markets: Vietnam, Malaysia, Egypt (50% of exports) Emerging markets: UAE, Iraq show rising demand Can Indian exporter…
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ayushi-baloni_interactive-sea…

schedule

Claim 2: “With temperatures in the Pacific Ocean expected to rise by 3.6 degrees Celsius (38.4 degrees Fahrenheit) — almost double the 2015/6 El Nino — climate think tank Berkeley Earth now predicts this year's weather pattern will be strongest on record.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 3: “around a third of [fertilizer] normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 4: “The UN food agency warned this month that some of these regions face a more than 50% chance of drought in the next few months.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for the UN food agency (FAO) describes the organization's history and general purpose, but does not contain the specific warning about a >50% chance of drought in the mentioned regions.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A large-scale, drought-induced famine occurred in Africa's Sahel region and many parts of the neighbouring Sénégal River Area from February to August 2010. It is one of many famines to have hit the re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Sahel_famine

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent after Asia. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers around 20% of Earth's la…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — West Africa, also known as Western Africa, is the westernmost region of Africa. The United Nations defines Western Africa as the 16 countries of Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Ghana, Gui…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Africa

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 5: “food prices remain nearly 20% below their 2022 peak, according to the FAO Food Price Index.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence mentions the FAO Food Price Index and specific values for April 2026, but does not provide the specific comparison to the 2022 peak needed to verify the '20% below' claim.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The FAO Food Price Index, the benchmark measure of global food commodity prices, confirms that the Persian Gulf agrifood shock is translating into sustained price increases. The index averaged 130.7 p…
https://hectar.global/insights/article/strait-of-hormuz-food…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Food price indices (FAO).Data: FAO Food Price Index (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)), machine-read from the official CSV on June 25, 2026.
https://warconomy.com/commodities/history

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), published today (Friday, January 6) - which tracks the monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities - shows that the meat price index in Dec…
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/world-meat-prices-fell-…

info

Claim 6: “The world brought in the biggest grain harvest in history last year.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided discusses general grain definitions, post-harvest loss, and combine harvesters, but does not confirm that the 2025 harvest was the largest in history.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A grain is a small, hard, dry fruit (caryopsis) – with or without an attached hull layer – harvested for human or animal consumption.[1] A grain crop is a grain-producing plant. The two main types of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grain

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Preserving every grain: Post-harvest loss reduction technologies. More than 20% of the world’s grain harvest is lost each year after leaving the field.The IGC’s latest projections suggest a 3% increas…
https://millermagazine.com/blog/olam-looksfor-science-resear…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Fendt - Claas / Getreideernte - Grain Harvest 2021Landtechnik MV - Agricultural Videos221K views • 4 years agoLivePlaylist ()Mix (50+). 7:01. Biggest Tractors In The WorldCar News Central12M views • 9…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkRegbRyfWQ

help

Claim 7: “The UN says 266 million people are still facing acute hunger, more than half of them due to conflict.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim.

check_circle

Claim 8: “the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 63% chance that the unusual weather pattern could be "very strong" this year.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web sources (India Today, StormBag) confirm that NOAA raised the odds of a 'very strong' El Nino to 63% for the winter period of 2026.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1877–1878 El Niño event was likely the strongest El Niño on record. It contributed to widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disaste…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877–1878_El_Niño_event

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Super El Niño events, also called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more, aff…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_El_Niño_events

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 9: “While this year is expected to be slightly smaller, the harvest will still be the second-largest ever.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim.

check_circle

Claim 10: “June already saw around 40% less rainfall than normal, according to local media.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results explicitly state that India experienced approximately 40% less rainfall than normal in June 2026.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the world's seventh-largest country by area and the largest by population. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the south, the Ara…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — June is the sixth month of the year in the Julian and Gregorian calendars—the latter the most widely used calendar in the world. Its length is 30 days. June succeeds May and precedes July. This month …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is the timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pande…

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 11: “JP Morgan, meanwhile, warned last week that El Nino, combined with $100 (€88) oil prices, could spike food inflation by up to 1.5%.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for JP Morgan consists of general company descriptions and a generic website landing page. There is no mention of a specific warning regarding El Nino, oil prices, or food inflation.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of animated feature films in 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animated_feature_films…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Permian–Triassic extinction event, colloquially known as the Great Dying, was an extinction event that occurred around the boundary between the Permian and Triassic geologic periods, and with them…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_ev…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions. A drought can last for days, months or years. Drought often has large impacts on the ecosystems and agriculture of affected regions, and causes h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 12: “the World Bank warned recently it could cut rice output by 20% to 50% in affected regions.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for the World Bank consists of general definitions of 'World' and news portals. No specific warning from the World Bank regarding rice output reduction of 20-50% was found in the evidence.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1982–1983 El Niño event was one of the strongest El Niño events since records were kept. It led to droughts in Indonesia and Australia, widespread flooding across the southern United States, lack …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982–83_El_Niño_event

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the second-strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of weather events that occurred on Earth in the year 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_of_2026

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.