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How the Middle East conflict is hitting your investment portfolio, and what (not) to do about it

Daily Maverick · 🇿🇦 public South Africa · · 1014 words · By Neesa Moodley
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What to know about How the Middle East conflict is hitting your investment portfolio, and what (not) to do about it

The first thing to note is that there is a difference between what asset managers are explicitly saying and what the market has already done.

Claims checked 14
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center100%
Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The first thing to note is that there is a difference between what asset managers are explicitly saying and what the market has already done.

Why it matters

On the asset-manager side, the clearest direct call comes from M&G Investments Southern Africa, whose February 2026 market overview said that “Sasol and other energy stocks” had benefited from higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.

Common ground

That tells us that Sasol sits firmly in the winner camp if the oil shock persists.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-03-25-how-middle-east-conflict-is-h…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 14 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

help Insufficient Evidence 6
schedule Pending 4
info Single Source 2
verified Verified By Reference 2
schedule
Claim 1: “Investors with portfolios heavy in retail and SA Inc shares face increased risks due to the conflict.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
schedule
Claim 2: “The Middle East conflict is reshaping South African portfolios unevenly, with Sasol as the clearest winner and local retail as the clearest loser.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 3: “Ninety One indicated that energy equities and energy-linked sovereigns can benefit from a Hormuz-style shock, while energy importers face higher import bills.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web search results for claim 1 contain unrelated content about blogs, political establishments, and hotel jobs. No evidence directly links Ninety One to the stated analysis about energy equities or Hormuz-style shocks.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — ... helps explain the timing, cause,andtactics of the sudden, coordinated effort to demean MMT scholarsandthe newly elected progressivesthatterrify ...
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/03/bill-black-three-nat…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — ...ac% in the Salient’s letters to the editoroneyear, to then goonandget re-elected to the executive showed methatthe (usually unanimous) ...
https://thestandard.org.nz/blogs-and-the-political-establish…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — It is estimatedthat1.0 to1.5 direct jobs are created per hotel room, with luxury hotels often requiring up to1.5 or more employees per room,and...
https://howesdubai.com/2026/03/23/right-here-right-now-2/
help
Claim 4: “Stanlib expressed lack of enthusiasm for South African retail shares due to low local growth and competition from Amazon and Shein.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to support Stanlib's stance on South African retail shares or competition from Amazon/Shein.
help
Claim 5: “Sasol is the clearest direct beneficiary, while Exxaro and Thungela are more conditional calls.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to support the specific analysis about Sasol, Exxaro, and Thungela's investment positioning.
help
Claim 6: “Investors should resist treating every stock rally as a valid long-term investment thesis.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to confirm the investment advice about resisting stock rally assumptions.
help
Claim 7: “Consumer-facing stocks such as retailers will experience a decline due to higher fuel costs contributing to inflation and reduced discretionary spending.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to confirm or refute the claim about consumer-facing stocks declining due to fuel costs and inflation.
verified
Claim 8: “M&G Investments Southern Africa stated in February 2026 that Sasol and other energy stocks benefited from higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence includes generic mentions of M&G Investments and energy stocks, but no direct confirmation of the specific February 2026 claim about Sasol and geopolitical tensions. Web results reference unrelated topics like Alliant Energy and Canadian stocks, while Wikipedia entries provide no context for the claim.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent after Asia. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers around 20% of Earth's la…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — M&G plc is a global investment manager headquartered in the City of London. Since its de-merger from Prudential plc, it has been listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 10…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M&G
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SEI Investments Company, formerly Simulated Environments Inc., is a financial services company headquartered in Oaks, Pennsylvania, United States. SEI provides products and services to institutions, p…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEI_Investments_Company
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 9: “Ryan Murphy noted that investors tend to check their portfolios more frequently during sharp market movements due to increased uncertainty and anxiety.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to support Ryan Murphy's observation about investor portfolio monitoring during market volatility.
help
Claim 10: “Sasol and Thungela were among the gainers during the conflict-driven oil surge, while gold and PGM shares were hit when precious metals reversed.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in web searches or Wikipedia to confirm the specific market movements or stock performance mentioned in the claim.
schedule
Claim 11: “Investors should ask their financial planners about stress tests, diversification, and goal alignment in the current inflationary environment.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 12: “Exxaro and Thungela are likely beneficiaries if fossil-fuel prices remain elevated.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web results mention Thungela's coal operations and Exxaro's coal production but do not explicitly state they are 'beneficiaries' of elevated fossil-fuel prices. The evidence is indirect and lacks direct confirmation of the claim.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Aug 18 (Reuters) - Global thermal coal producers are expected to curtail output as lowpricesfor thefossilfuelpersist amid an uncertain economic outlook, South African coal minerThungela...
https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2025/thungela-expects-industry-wi…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — IfIsrael does eventually bomb Iran's refineries, in the event of a further escalation of tit-for-tat missile attacks, it stands to trigger another rally in the energy cluster. Sasol is South Africa's …
https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/58801-thungela-has-best…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — New coal investment may be drying up as the world seeks greener energy, but for miners like South Africa'sThungelaResources that could be a boon if Asia's ravenous appetite keepspricesbouyant ...
https://www.reuters.com/company/exxaro-resources-ltd/
schedule
Claim 13: “Investors should not panic-sell quality assets due to market volatility.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
verified
Claim 14: “Thungela reported a full-year loss for 2025.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia entries for Anglo American, Ensham coal mine, and Exxaro provide no information about Thungela's 2025 financial performance. No evidence confirms or denies the full-year loss claim.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Anglo American plc is a British multinational mining company with headquarters in London, England. It is the world's largest producer of platinum, representing approximately 40 percent of global outpu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_American_plc
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Ensham Coal Mine is a coal mine located 40 km east of Emerald in Central Queensland, Australia. The Bowen Basin mine has coal reserves amounting to 1.48 billion tonnes of coking coal, one of the l…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensham_coal_mine
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Exxaro Resources Limited (Exxaro, the company or the group) is a South African diversified resources company that primarily produces coal. Exxaro is among the top five coal producers in South Africa. …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxaro
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.