“The US-Israel war on Iran has caused severe disruption for airlines, featuring widespread cancellations, airspace closures and a looming jet fuel crisis.”

““35 percent of pharmaceuticals move by air, and about 90 percent of critical or life-saving pharmaceuticals and vaccines do so too. I estimate that 22 percent of global air cargo flows are exposed to Middle East disruptions,” he said.”

““So the main global effect for now is delays, rerouting, and higher costs, rather than a worldwide physical shortage. “There might be some modest price increases on pharmaceuticals, because of the increase in air cargo fares, mainly on the east-west corridors. For generic medicines, where the margins are much thinner, the relative increase in price might be higher,” he added.”

“On Tuesday, Goh Miah Kiat, the CEO of Karex, the world’s top condom producer, said prices will have to rise by 20 to 30 percent to contend with the ongoing disruption to supply chains.”

“Karex produces more than 5 billion condoms per year, supplying top brands like Durex and Trojan, and also to global aid programmes run by the United Nations.”

“Pharmacies in the UK and India have noted an increase in the price of paracetamol, a drug commonly used to treat headaches and the flu.”

“Olivier Picard, chair of the National Pharmacy Association (NPA) told The Guardian newspaper that the price he pays wholesalers for a pack of 100 500mg paracetamol tablets had jumped 41 pence (55 cents) to 1.99 pounds ($2.69) by the end of March, but has since eased back to 1.09 pounds ($1.47).”

“Schneider told Al Jazeera the impact across the globe will depend on several factors, including whether other suppliers are available.”

““The US has domestic hydrocarbon and petrochemical supply, and China can source most of its demand from elsewhere. India, however, is a major producer of pharmaceuticals and depends on supplies from the Gulf, which is a major chokepoint in the global pharmaceutical supply network,” he said.”

““The EU, for example, has a ‘solidarity mechanism’ – a recent stockpiling strategy that includes pharmaceuticals – and country-specific stockpiling requirements of two-10 months’ worth of medicines. While some Global North countries, like the NHS in the UK, are sounding the alarm bells and warn of shortages in the weeks ahead,” he noted.”

““The problem is, as with most supply-chain problems, more acute for Global South countries, and sub-Saharan Africa in particular, that have fewer or no stockpiles and not enough financial heft to afford the price increases due to the supply crunch, as well as countries currently experiencing humanitarian crises, like Sudan, Yemen and Palestine,” he explained.”

““The situation in the GCC remains apparently stable, with governments assuring that their supply is secure, but that may change if things turn for the worse again,” he added.”

“Dewulf said the countries most likely to suffer are the ones directly touched by the conflict and regional disruption.”

““The real exposure is in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, rather than across the global market,” he said.”

““I would add a second group: Fragile, aid-dependent countries that were already under severe pressure before this war,” he said.”

““A third, more conditional risk group is the import-dependent Gulf markets, he said, especially for cold-chain and cancer medicines. “Those flows were rerouted when major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha were hit [by air strikes].”