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How hot will it get by 2100? Scientists revise the answer

EuroNews · · 660 words · By Angela Symons
Climate Change Projections Renewable Energy Economics Environmental Risk Assessment
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.euronews.com/2026/05/19/worst-case-global-warming-projection-cut-by-…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

7 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
verified Verified 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
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“Some of the world’s top climate scientists now believe a previously projected 4.5°C rise by 2100 is no longer plausible, and have reduced the upper limit of their worst-case scenario for global warming to 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results discuss the reduction of worst-case scenarios. One source specifically mentions a 3.5°C warning for the worst-case scenario, while another mentions a range of 1.9 to 3.7°C, noting that previous worst-case scenarios were less plausible.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also inclu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Climate change is a major issue for the Maldives. As an archipelago of low-lying islands and atolls in the Indian Ocean, the existence of the Maldives is severely threatened by sea level rise. By 2050…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Maldives
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are climate change scenarios to project future greenhouse gas concentrations. These pathways (or trajectories) describe future greenhouse gas concentrations…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_P…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The revised models come from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which has created climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes.”
VERIFIED
Multiple authoritative sources (GMD, CMIP) confirm that ScenarioMIP carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use.
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web search NEUTRAL — Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercom…
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/3461/2016/
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web search NEUTRAL — The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenari…
https://wcrp-cmip.org/mips/scenariomip/
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web search NEUTRAL — The Scenario Model Intercomparison Proj ect (ScenarioMIP) is no w t he primary activit y within CMIP6 that will.land use -emissions scenarios (Riahi et a l., 2016) for CMIP6, and d iscussions with ke …
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301594661_The_Scena…
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“Led by an international committee of leading climate scientists, its findings will feed into the UN’s future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim is completely irrelevant, returning results for the Phoenix Suns basketball team instead of climate science or the IPCC.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Phoenix Suns are an American professional basketball team based in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns compete in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a member of the Pacific Division of the Wester…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Suns
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web search NEUTRAL — Official site of the Phoenix Suns. Get the latest news, scores, schedules, roster updates, highlights, and buy tickets for upcoming games.
https://www.nba.com/suns/
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web search NEUTRAL — Follow the Phoenix Suns with the latest news, live game updates, roster moves, full schedule, stats, standings, and player coverage — all from Sports Illustrated.
https://www.si.com/nba/suns
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“the maximum 2°C limit agreed on by countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and Greenpeace UK confirm that the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Paris Agreement was negotiated by 196 parties at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference near Paris, France. As of January 2026, 194 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement
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web search NEUTRAL — The 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal is, by design, a strengthening of the Cancun 2°C goal. The origin of the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit derived from the concern amongst the vulnerable countries about the …
https://climateactiontracker.org/methodology/paris-temperatu…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Paris agreement has the aim of limiting global warming to well below 2ºC and ideally to 1.5°C.
https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/challenges/climate-change/solu…
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“If current climate change policies continue unchanged, preliminary estimates suggest a temperature rise of around 2.5°C.”
CORROBORATED
Two different sources provide estimates for temperature rise under current policies: one specifically mentions a range of 2.5°C-2.9°C, and another mentions 3.1-3.7°C. The 2.5°C figure is explicitly supported by one of the search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — In the Paris Agreement, almost all countries agreed to keep temperature rise below 2 °C (3.6 °F), but current plans are not enough to limit global warming as much.[16] People in government and the Int…
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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web search NEUTRAL — How are humans causing climate change? The climate has changed naturally throughout the Earth's history.It compares the 1.5C target against the temperature rise predicted if current policies continue …
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w15nggj58o
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web search NEUTRAL — Scenarios for the increase in global temperature. Expected increases in temperatures by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels: No climate policies implemented: 4.1-4.8°C warming. Current climate poli…
https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/climate-change/glo…
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“If mitigation measures are delayed but the world manages to achieve net-zero by the end of the century, models show that temperature rise could reach 2°C.”
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While sources discuss the 2°C goal and mitigation strategies, none of the provided evidence specifically confirms the model projection that delaying mitigation but achieving net-zero by 2100 results in exactly 2°C.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016. The treaty covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The Paris Agreement was negotiated by 19…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement
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web search NEUTRAL — Explore the mitigation pathways that are still available to meet the WB2C goal. Box 1. The Non-CO2 Climate Pollutants. The first category is SLCPs, which include GHGs such as methane, tropospheric ozo…
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1618481114
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web search NEUTRAL — Climate Resilience climate change international climate policy UNFCCC. The cost of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C is far less than the costs of exceeding this target.
https://www.wri.org/insights/limiting-temperature-rise-2degc…
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“Developed in the mid-2010s, the previous scenarios used real-world emissions data up to 2015. The new models extend that to 2023”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms that ScenarioMIP uses emissions and land use data and that new SSP scenarios have replaced RCPs, but the specific detail about the data cutoff moving from 2015 to 2023 is not explicitly corroborated across multiple provided sources.
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web search NEUTRAL — forcing data (land use, emission s, concentrations, extensions) required for the futu re SS P -RCPs selected i n. 32. ScenarioMIP will be made publicly accessible at the SSP database at.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301594661_The_Scena…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) carries out earth system model simulations driven by alternative plausible futures of emissions and land use. The primary objectives of Scenari…
https://wcrp-cmip.org/mips/scenariomip/
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web search NEUTRAL — A new set of climate scenarios has been developed with respect to the sixth IPCC report (IPCC AR6), the "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs). Compared to the previously used RCPs, the new SSP scenar…
https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/climate-simulations/cmi…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.