Homelessness could be 4 times higher in a decade due to impacts from climate change, study suggests

Phys · May 15, 2026 · 786 words · By University

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What to know about Homelessness could be 4 times higher in a decade due to impacts from climate change, study suggests

The article reports on a study from the University of Sydney suggesting that climate change could significantly increase homelessness and decrease housing affordability in Australia. The researchers argue that housing policies must be specifically designed to account for climate-driven shocks to avoid worsening social inequities.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 11

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center75%

Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Homelessness could be 4 times higher in a decade due to impacts from climate change, study suggests Sadie Harley Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Lead Editor A study on the future of Australia's housing market has revealed that even well-intended housing market…

Why it matters

The research, by Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh and Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney School of Project Management, predicted that homelessness could be four times higher in a decade in a climate future with high levels of greenhouse…

Common ground

The paper is published in the journal Cities.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Homelessness could be 4 times higher in a decade due to impacts from climate change, study suggests?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that The researchers used nearly two decades of public data to run simulations on how Australia's future housing market responded to different climate and socioeconomic scenarios?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-homelessness-higher-decade-due-impacts.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 5

check_circle Corroborated 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

schedule Pending 1

info

Claim 1: “The researchers used nearly two decades of public data to run simulations on how Australia's future housing market responded to different climate and socioeconomic scenarios”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results discuss general housing conditions and climate vulnerability but do not mention the specific methodology of using 'nearly two decades of public data' for simulations by these researchers.

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web search NEUTRAL — Leading Sydney auctioneer Tom Panos described the conditions as the “toughest in seven years” in his weekend market wrap. “I haven’t seen this marketplace as challenging as this since probably that pe…
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/05/australias-housing-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Australia’s response to climate change is one of the worst in the G20 with a lack of policy, reliance on fossil fuels and rising emissions leaving the country exposed “economically, politically and en…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/11/australi…

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web search NEUTRAL — Australians aren’t equal when it comes to climate change vulnerability.Our Index is designed to help communities, emergency response planners and public health officials identify strategies that best …
https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/science-environment/…

help

Claim 2: “Under a high-emissions future, even a modest 0.5% annual rise in ownership costs could increase homelessness by 16% and cut rental affordability by 15% compared to the 2020 baseline.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the specific 0.5% annual rise in ownership costs and its predicted impact on homelessness (16%) and rental affordability (15%).

info

Claim 3: “Home ownership affordability could be twice as expensive and rent would be less affordable, by up to 45%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific statistics (twice as expensive for ownership, 45% less affordable for rent) appear in one of the web search snippets, but are not corroborated by the other independent news sources provided.

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web search NEUTRAL — Take online courses on Study.com that are fun and engaging. Pass exams to earn real college credit. Research schools and degrees to further your education.
https://study.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — Master any subject with Studley AI. Trusted by more than 2,000,000 top students. Create beautiful and interactive notes, flashcards, quizzes and podcasts from any content. Study smarter, not harder.
https://www.studley.ai/

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web search NEUTRAL — Dive into millions of student-shared lecture notes, summaries, and study guides from thousands of courses. Why wait to pass your exams with better grades?
https://www.studocu.com/en-us

help

Claim 4: “They used national housing, income and demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data on household income and affordability, and the property price index”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the specific datasets (ABS, HILDA, property price index) used in the study.

check_circle

Claim 5: “A study on the future of Australia's housing market has revealed that even well-intended housing market interventions could significantly worsen housing affordability and homelessness in the country due to the impacts of climate change.”

CORROBORATED

The claim is explicitly stated in multiple web search results, including a report and a Guardian article, linking climate change to worsened housing affordability and homelessness in Australia.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A study on the future of Australia's housing market has revealed that even well-intended housing market interventions could significantly worsen housing affordability and homelessness in the country d…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-homelessness-higher-decade-due…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Global heating could worsen housing affordability, push up rents and quadruple homelessness in a decade without fairer housing policies and action to reduce emissions, new research has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/15/australi…

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web search NEUTRAL — "They are impacted disproportionately by climate change," Associate Professor Naderpajouh said. The findings suggest policymakers should be shaping their policy interventions to target low-income hous…
https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/9247643/rent-hi…

info

Claim 6: “The paper is published in the journal Cities.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While one search result confirms the existence of the journal 'Cities', the provided evidence does not explicitly link the specific paper by Habibi-Moshfegh and Naderpajouh to this journal in a way that provides independent corroboration beyond the likely original source text.

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web search NEUTRAL — Cities publishes articles on many aspects of urban planning and policy.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/cities

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web search NEUTRAL — Edmondson wrote in a study published in 1999.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.2307/2666999

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web search NEUTRAL — The Journal of Management in Engineering (JME), published by ASCE, is introducing a new award to recognize the impact of scholarly work a decade after its publication. This initiative has sparked disc…
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nader-Naderpajouh

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Claim 7: “The research, by Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh and Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney School of Project Management, predicted that homelessness could be four times higher in a decade in a climate future with high levels of greenhouse gas emissions.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources identify Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh and Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney as the researchers and confirm the prediction that homelessness could quadruple in a decade under high emissions.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The research, by Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh and Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney School of Project Management, predicted that homelessness could be four times higher in …
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-homelessness-higher-decade-due…

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web search NEUTRAL — Peyman Habibi Moshfegh Peyman Habibi Moshfegh.In response to this concern, holistic research on resilience explores explanations for the performance of the systems under both predictable and unknown s…
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nader-Naderpajouh

info

Claim 8: “Even under a low-emissions future climate scenario, homelessness could still double in a decade compared to 2020 levels and rental affordability could still decline by 23%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific figures for the low-emissions scenario (homelessness doubling and rental affordability dropping 23%) appear in one web search snippet but are not corroborated by other independent sources.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Home ownership affordability could be twice as expensive and rent would be less affordable, by up to 45%. Even under a low-emissions future climate scenario, homelessness could still double in a decad…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-homelessness-higher-decade-due…

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web search NEUTRAL — Tens of thousands of Australians could face the threat of homelessness after the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) ends. (A Current Affair). However, the subsidies were only promised for 10 …
https://www.9news.com.au/national/national-rental-affordabil…

schedule

Claim 9: “If ownership costs rise by 3% a year, homelessness could jump by 69%, while rental affordability could fall by 36%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 10: “according to the Climate Council, by 2030 extreme weather events are expected to cause more than $571 billion in economic losses in the Australian housing market alone.”

CORROBORATED

Three independent web search results explicitly attribute the $571 billion economic loss prediction for the Australian housing market by 2030 to the Climate Council.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Some $571 billion in value could be wiped from Australia's property market over the next decade due to the impact of climate change and extreme weather, a new report warns.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/climate-change-to-wipe-571…

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web search NEUTRAL — And the property market was projected to lose $571 billion in value by 2030 as a result of climate change and extreme weather. Fellow report author and climate risk expert Dr Karl Mallon said Queensla…
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/climate-change-failure-c…

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web search NEUTRAL — According to a recent report by the Climate Council, the Australian property market is predicted to lose $571 billion in value by 2030 due to climate change and extreme weather.
https://www.domain.com.au/advice/tools-for-home-buyers-to-as…

info

Claim 11: “In 2021, insurance premiums increased by 5.9% as suggested by Global Data”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search results for insurance premiums are generic advertisements for insurance companies and do not contain any data regarding a 5.9% increase in 2021 by Global Data.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Get an insurance quote in minutes from a top-rated company. Find 24/7 support and insurance for you, your family, and your belongings.
https://www.progressive.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — OICL - The Oriental Insurance Company Ltd...
https://orientalinsurance.org.in/

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web search NEUTRAL — In a health insurance policy, what does cashless hospitalisation means?
https://www.hdfcergo.com/health-insurance

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.