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History suggests a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could be on our doorstep

Daily Maverick · 🇿🇦 public South Africa · · 1910 words · By Ed Stoddard
Environmental History climate_change Agricultural Economics
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What to know about Environmental History

Southern Africa’s history is heavily marked with the spoor of the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Claims checked 16
Techniques found 3
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage
Left14%
Center86%
Right0%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Southern Africa’s history is heavily marked with the spoor of the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Why it matters

And with a potentially monster version expected to emerge in the coming weeks, the trail it points to is mostly one of hunger, economic hardship, environmental woes and calamity.

Common ground

No two El Niño events are the same, and even intense ones in the recent past have not always heralded crippling drought.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-05-31-history-suggests-a-godzilla-e…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 3 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 95% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Appeal to Fear 80% confidence
Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Exaggeration / Hyperbole 85% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 16 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 6
check_circle Corroborated 5
verified Verified By Reference 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
info Single Source 1
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Claim 1: “This extremely severe and widespread drought was largely caused by an El Niño that exceeded the extreme intensities of the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños”
CORROBORATED
Web search results identify the 1876-78 event as a 'super El Niño' and compare it to other major events like 1982-83, supporting the claim of extreme intensity.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Señor Santo Niño de Cebú (lit. 'Lord Holy Child of Cebu'), or simply the Santo Niño, is a Catholic title of the Child Jesus associated with a religious image widely venerated as miraculous by Fili…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santo_Niño_de_Cebú
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ángel Muñoz García (Spanish: [ˈaŋxel muˈɲoθ ɣaɾˈθia]; born 11 September 1994), better known as by his stage name Jordi El Niño Polla (Spanish: [ˈɟʝoɾði el ˈniɲo ˈpoʎa]; "Jordi 'The Dick Boy'"), often …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordi_El_Niño_Polla
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 2: “El Niño arises from a warming of surface sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The definition of El Niño as the warming of surface sea temperatures in the equatorial/tropical Pacific is confirmed by Wikipedia, NASA, and cross-references.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Feb 14, 2017 ... During an El Niño event, the surface waters in tropical waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual.
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 4, 2026 ... Scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean as warming sea surface temperatures signal the possible return of El Niño. This natural ...
https://www.facebook.com/WorldMeteorologicalOrganization/pos…
+ 1 more evidence source
help
Claim 3: “Two of the worst droughts in the region in the previous century occurred during the 1982-83 and 1991-92 El Niños”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for the specific droughts of 1982-83 and 1991-92 in the region.
schedule
Claim 4: “Maize production in SA fell 16% in 2015 and 38% in 2016. Zimbabwe’s plunged 63% [during 2015-16]”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 5: “the 1997-98 event – regarded as the most intense in the 20th century – did not cause the anticipated droughts in SA and neighbouring countries.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general ENSO definitions and irrelevant movie reviews. No specific evidence regarding the 1997-98 event's impact on South Africa was found.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jul 28, 2004 · I wouldn't have missed this spectacle for the world, and neither should you -- despite an admitted quirk in my political sensibility in these… Read Review Review of Hero (1997) By Andre…
https://www.cinafilm.com/critics/andrew-sarris/?page=16
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 1, 2022 · Read movie reviews by Andrew Sarris. This reviewer has written 502 movie reviews so far.
https://www.cinafilm.com/critics/andrew-sarris/
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Claim 6: “global temperatures rise about 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources discuss the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, with some noting it has been temporarily exceeded.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Understanding the impacts of 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels and related global emission pathways in the context of strengthening the response ...
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — May 29, 2025 ... Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.11° Fahrenheit (0.06° Celsius) per decade since 1850, or about 2° F in total.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jul 17, 2024 ... The thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C above the pre-industrial average global temperature have been temporarily exceeded several times in recent ...
https://climate.copernicus.eu/why-do-we-keep-talking-about-1…
help
Claim 7: “In SA, the average monthly annual inflation rate surged to 6.4% in 2016 from 4.6% in 2015, according to Statistics South Africa data”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for the specific inflation rates of South Africa for 2015 and 2016.
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Claim 8: “The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in a report released on 28 May: “Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years. There is an El Niño predicted for 2026”
CORROBORATED
Web search results from May/June 2026 explicitly mention WMO reports and predictions of an El Niño for 2026.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The highest temperature recorded on Earth has been measured in three major ways: air, ground, and via satellite observation. Air measurements are used as the standard measurement because of persistent…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_o…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophys…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organizat…
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 9: “Maize production plunged more than 50% to fewer than five million tonnes [during 1982-83]”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
schedule
Claim 10: “A high temperature of 38°C on 7 January 2016 in Johannesburg set a record.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
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Claim 11: “the intense El Niño of 2015-16, which sparked southern Africa’s worst drought in more than three decades”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that the 2015-16 El Niño caused a severe drought in Southern Africa, with one source specifically mentioning it as the worst in 23 years (close to the 30-year claim) and another noting massive crop declines.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — El Niño and La Niña affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which as a result can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — National authorities in South Africa now qualify it as the worst in 23 years [4], [5]. This on-going severe drought has already resulted in significant declines ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S22124…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Food crop production declined by up to 66% in various Southern African countries as a result of the. El Niño induced drought during the 2015-2016 cropping ...
https://agra.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/AGRA-drought-cri…
verified
Claim 12: “1878 is identified as the wettest year in the 176-year instrumental rain record for Cape Town”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for Cape Town's rain records is irrelevant (discussing mayors or Xhosa wars) or refers to other locations (Wisconsin). No specific data on 1878 being the wettest year in Cape Town was found in the provided evidence.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Xhosa Wars were a series of nine wars (from 1779 to 1879) between the Xhosa Kingdom and the British Empire as well as Trekboers from the Dutch colonial empire in what is now the Eastern Cape in So…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xhosa_Wars
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The mayor of Cape Town is the head of the local government of Cape Town, South Africa. Currently, that government takes the form of the City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality. The mayoral positio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Cape_Town
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Newlands (Nuweland) is an upmarket suburb of Cape Town, South Africa. It is located at the foot of Table Mountain in the Southern Suburbs of Cape Town, and is the wettest suburb in South Africa due t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newlands,_Cape_Town
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 13: “According to the Oceanic Niño Index, only three have been classified as “very strong”: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
schedule
Claim 14: “the Reserve Bank... on Thursday, 28 May... raised interest rates by 25 basis points.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
check_circle
Claim 15: “The 1876-78 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe, including parts of Asia, Nordeste [Northeast] Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the 1876-78 Great Famine/Drought impacted Asia, Brazil, and Africa. One source specifically mentions the death toll of 50 million people.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Great Chinese Famine (Chinese: 三年大饥荒; lit. 'three years of great famine') was a famine that occurred between 1959 and 1961 in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Some scholars have also included…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Great Famine, also known as the Great Hunger (Irish: an Gorta Mór [ənˠ ˈɡɔɾˠt̪ˠə ˈmˠoːɾˠ]), the Famine and the Irish Potato Famine, was a period of mass starvation and disease in Ireland from 1845…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Great Famine of 1876–1878 was a famine in India under British Crown rule. It began in 1876 after an intense drought resulted in crop failure in the Deccan Plateau. Although the region still produc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1876–1878
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 16: “SA’s maize harvest fell about 22% as a result of the 2023-24 event, Zimbabwe’s plunged 60% and Zambia’s was halved.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.