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Here’s how Wall Street is betting Trump’s battle over the Fed will pan out

Nypost · · 688 words · By Charles Gasparino
Trump's influence over monetary policy Fed chair confirmation process
open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/04/17/business/heres-how-wall-street-is-betting-trumps-b…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Name Calling / Labeling 90% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

8 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 2
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verified Verified By Reference 1
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“Wall Street is betting that Trump will ultimately be rational in the Fed confirmation battle.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, Al Jazeera) independently report Wall Street's belief that Trump will be rational in the Fed confirmation battle. Wikipedia provides context about Powell and Warsh's roles.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell (born February 4, 1953) is an American central banker and attorney who has been the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. He was previously both a lawyer and investm…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kevin Maxwell Warsh (born April 13, 1970) is an American financier and bank executive. He served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRB) from 2006 to 2011. During and in the after…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald J. Trump, et al. v. Lisa D. Cook is a lawsuit brought by Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, against U.S. president Donald Trump, the board, and its chairman, Jerome …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._Cook
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Trump stated he would fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he does not leave on time.”
CORROBORATED
Three web sources (Bloomberg, Politico, Reuters) independently confirm Trump's public threats to fire Powell if he doesn't resign. Wikipedia corroborates Powell's role in the DOJ probe.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In November 2025, federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_investigation_into_Jer…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell (born February 4, 1953) is an American central banker and attorney who has been the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. He was previously both a lawyer and investm…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Sen. Thom Tillis refuses to advance Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination due to his belief the White House's probe of Powell is bogus.”
DISPUTED
Web sources explicitly state Tillis will block Warsh's nomination until the DOJ probe is resolved, contradicting the claim that he considers the probe 'bogus'. The evidence directly refutes the claim.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In November 2025, federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_investigation_into_Jer…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kevin Maxwell Warsh (born April 13, 1970) is an American financier and bank executive. He served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (FRB) from 2006 to 2011. During and in the after…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh
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web search NEUTRAL — Thom Tillis said Friday he will oppose President Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve chair pick until a Justice Department probe into current Fed chief Jerome Powell “is fully and transparently resolved,” …
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/30/kevin-warsh-thom-ti…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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“Wall Street believes Tillis's principled stance will force Trump to relent in the Fed confirmation dispute.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web sources (WSJ, Politico) report Wall Street's belief that Tillis's stance will force Trump to compromise. Wikipedia provides context about the Fed confirmation process.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump, serving as the 45th president of the United States, was impeached for the second time on January 13, 2021, one week before his term expired. On that date, the House of Representatives ad…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_T…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 2025, the second Donald Trump administration of the United States has sought to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark (itself in the European Union), triggering an ongoing internat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_crisis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell (born February 4, 1953) is an American central banker and attorney who has been the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. He was previously both a lawyer and investm…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Traders coined the term 'TACO' to describe Trump's tendency to back down under pressure.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia explicitly defines 'TACO' as a term coined by traders to describe Trump's tendency to back down under pressure, confirming the claim through an authoritative reference.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — At 79 years old, Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, became the oldest person in American history to become president upon his second inauguration in 2025. In July 2024, fi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_and_health_concerns_about_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — During and between his terms as President of the United States, Donald Trump has made tens of thousands of false or misleading claims. Fact-checkers at The Washington Post documented 30,573 false or m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_or_misleading_statements…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) is a pejorative description of the perceived tendency of United States president Donald Trump to make threats, only to later delay or renege on them as a way to incr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Trump claims Powell's Fed cut rates before the 2024 election to benefit Kamala Harris's campaign.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Only one web source (BBC) mentions Fed rate cuts around the 2024 election, but no source directly confirms Trump's specific claim about benefiting Kamala Harris. The claim lacks corroboration.
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web search NEUTRAL — Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. The Republican ticket of former president Donald Trump and Ohio junior senator JD Vance defeated the Democratic ticket of inc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidentia…
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web search NEUTRAL — The site owner hides the web page description.
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1965864889651704135
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web search NEUTRAL — US President Donald Trump has raised hopes that interest rate cuts from the Fed will help Americans get mortgages. But mortgage rates are indirectly influenced by Fed policy, among other factors.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2xe98r4wrt
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“Trump vows to fire Powell for 'cause' if necessary.”
CORROBORATED
Three web sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ) independently report Trump's threats to fire Powell for 'cause' if he doesn't resign. Wikipedia provides context about Powell's role.
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web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · Although Jerome H. Powell’s term as Fed chair officially ends on May 15, he can stay on as a governor until 2028 and said he would not leave until a criminal investigation was over.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/business/trump-powell-fed…
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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from his separate seat on the U.S. central bank's Board of Gover…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-feds-powell-if-he-doe…
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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · President Donald Trump said his administration doesn't plan to drop the Department of Justice's probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and again threatened to fire him if he stays…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/04/15/trump-threat…
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“Sources close to Warsh indicate he is expected to become Fed chair by May.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web sources only mention delays in Warsh's confirmation due to the DOJ probe, but none confirm a specific 'May' timeline. No evidence directly supports or refutes the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation plan hits snag as nomination hearing is delayed.
https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZj…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kevin M. Warsh vowed to divest a substantial amount of his more than $100 million in assets as he faces a complicated path to becoming the next chair of the Federal Reserve.Mr. Trump has also directly…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/business/trump-federal-re…
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web search NEUTRAL — Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair. But he's set to face a rocky road to confirmation in the Senate, owing to the DOJ's probe of Jerome Powell. A key GOP senator has vowed to block t…
https://www.businessinsider.com/thom-tillis-kevin-warsh-powe…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.