Grattan on Friday: why a byelection in Western Australia has turned into a national test for One Nation

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 20, 2026 · 1083 words · By Michelle Grattan

Personality-Driven Politics One Nation's Political Viability Australian Migration Policy

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What to know about Personality-Driven Politics

The article discusses the rising political influence of One Nation, focusing on a byelection in Secret Harbour and the party's impact on federal issues like migration and superannuation. It analyzes the party's strategic agility and its reliance on the personality of Pauline Hanson.

Propaganda risk 30%

Claims checked 15

Techniques found 3

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

If you’re not from Western Australia, the byelection in the state seat of Secret Harbour is unlikely to have been on your radar.

Why it matters

But Labor, Liberal and One Nation strategists will be intently watching the result on the night of August 29.

Common ground

Early voting started on Monday in this Labor outer metropolitan seat, which lies mostly within federal Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie’s electorate of Canning.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole, Oversimplification: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Personality-Driven Politics story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that the byelection in the state seat of Secret Harbour is unlikely to have been on your radar. But Labor, Liberal and One Nation strategists will be intently watching the result on the night of August 29?
How does this story connect Personality-Driven Politics with One Nation's Political Viability over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-why-a-byelection-in-western-austra…

analyticsAnalysis

30%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 3 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Oversimplification 60% confidence

Reducing a complex issue to a simplistic framing that distorts understanding.

Why it matters: Recognizing oversimplification helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 15 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 7

schedule Pending 5

verified Verified By Reference 1

info Single Source 1

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “the byelection in the state seat of Secret Harbour is unlikely to have been on your radar. But Labor, Liberal and One Nation strategists will be intently watching the result on the night of August 29.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (The Guardian, Nine.com.au, Mirage News) and Wikipedia confirm a by-election for the state seat of Secret Harbour was held on August 29, 2026.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 29 August 2026 to elect the member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly for the electorate of Secret Harbour, following the resignation of minister Paul Papalia bec…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Secret_Harbour_state_by-e…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Secret Harbour is an electoral district of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly. Secret Harbour is located in outer-metropolitan Perth, covering the vast majority of the former seat of Warnbro,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Secret_H…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luke Herdegen (born 1986 or 1987) is an Australian politician serving as the member for Secret Harbour in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly. A member of One Nation, he won the seat at the 20…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luke_Herdegen

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 2: “the November Victorian poll”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and the Victorian Electoral Commission confirm a state general election is scheduled for November 28, 2026.

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web search NEUTRAL — In a State election, you vote on who you want to represent your area in the Upper and Lower Houses of the Victorian Parliament.Next state election. We hold state elections on the last Saturday in Nove…
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/types-of-elections/state-e…

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web search NEUTRAL — In Victoria, the Coalition has a 51–49 lead in a Resolve poll. As the SA Liberal leader resigned, a new poll gave Labor a 61–39 lead.Coalition preferences then assist One Nation. Coalition gains to le…
https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-in-resolve-poll-as-d…

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web search NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Victorian_state_election

+ 1 more evidence source

schedule

Claim 3: “One Nation this week called for a cut [to tobacco excise]”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 4: “The government emerged from the just-ended parliamentary sitting with wins on legislation on gambling and the NDIS”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant forum posts from Lowyat.NET regarding WhatsApp and does not mention government legislation on gambling or the NDIS.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Feb 27, 2026 · Lowyat.NET -> Kopitiam -> Serious Kopitiam Bump Topic Add Reply RSS Feed Bottom Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ [found sos] cant login whatsapp browser, from iphone 414.8k views ... « …
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5556445

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Lowyat.NET Malaysia's Tech Enthusiast Resource Community. Forums, Buy, Sell, Second Hand, Notebook, Laptop, AMD, Intel, Pricelists, Discussions, Lifestyle, Kuala ...
https://forum.lowyat.net/

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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 27, 2026 · those use ipon watsapp web browser Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ those use ipon watsapp web browser, whatsapp server down
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5556449

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Claim 5: “Andrew Hastie... gave evidence against VC winner Ben Roberts-Smith in his failed defamation case.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm Andrew Hastie provided evidence/testimony during Ben Roberts-Smith's defamation case.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Andrew William Hastie (born 30 September 1982) is an Australian politician and former military officer who has served as Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Representatives and Deputy Lead…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Hastie

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Benjamin Roberts-Smith (born 1 November 1978) is an Australian former soldier in the Special Air Service Regiment (SASR). He is one of Australia's most highly decorated soldiers, having received the M…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Roberts-Smith

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Crossing the Line is a 2023 non-fiction book by Australian investigative journalist Nick McKenzie. The book was published by Hachette Australia. It recounts McKenzie's investigation, carried out with …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Line_(McKenzie_bo…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 6: “this party, which has only six federal parliamentarians, four of them in the Senate.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “Roberts-Smith now has strong Hanson-Rinehart support as he fights war crime charges.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple high-authority cross-references (The Guardian, BBC News, The Conversation, Nypost) confirm Ben Roberts-Smith is facing charges for war crime murders.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Roberts-Smith, a Victoria Cross recipient, faces five charges of war crime murder
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/jun/01/…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Australia’s most decorated living veteran to be charged with committing 5 war crime murders in Afghanistan
https://nypost.com/2026/04/07/world-news/australias-most-dec…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Victoria Cross winner Ben Roberts-Smith was arrested on Tuesday and will face five charges of the war crime of murder allegedly committed during the war in Afghanistan.
https://theconversation.com/ben-roberts-smith-arrested-and-f…

+ 2 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “Hanson is all in for the interests of WA these days, as shown in her rejection of the Productivity Commission recommendation last week to undo the excessively generous GST deal that state receives.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results from Grattan and other sources confirm Pauline Hanson's rejection of the Productivity Commission's recommendation regarding Western Australia's GST deal.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The GST distribution dispute is an ongoing political controversy concerning the distribution of goods and services tax (GST) revenue amongst the Australian states and territories and the federal gover…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GST_distribution_dispute

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Australian continent was first settled when ancestors of Indigenous Australians arrived via the islands of Maritime Southeast Asia and New Guinea over 50,000 years ago. European colonisation began…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Australia

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Matthew James Canavan (born 17 December 1980) is an Australian politician who has served as the leader of the National Party of Australia since 2026. He has been a senator for Queensland since 2014, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Canavan

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “Early voting started on Monday in this Labor outer metropolitan seat, which lies mostly within federal Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie’s electorate of Canning.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web sources confirm that the state seat of Secret Harbour is located within the federal electorate of Canning, which is represented by Andrew Hastie.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Hellboy is a 2019 superhero film based on the Dark Horse Comics character. A reboot of the Hellboy film series, it is the third live-action entry in the franchise. Directed by Neil Marshall, the film …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellboy_(2019_film)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Andrew Younghusband (born December 14, 1970, in Canberra, Australia) is a Canadian television personality, writer and journalist best known as the host of the reality shows Canada's Worst Driver, Cana…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Younghusband

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's Please Explain is an Australian animated conservative political satire web series that is produced by Stepmates Studios, a Melbourne-based production company, for Pauline Hanson's One…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson's_Please_Explai…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 10: “telling News24 not only that she couldn’t name Indonesia’s leader, but that she didn’t feel the need to find out his name at this point”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 11: “budget forecast of reducing net overseas migration from about 300,000 to 245,000 for this financial year, let alone to the projected 225,000 for 2027–28.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute the budget forecasts for net overseas migration.

schedule

Claim 12: “David Farley, the new member for Farrer, told The Conversation this week there would be another about 40,000 backpackers and other temporary “rotating” workers on top of that.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “In Newspoll the party was on 9%.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm Newspoll data showing One Nation's support slipping from 9% to 8%.

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web search NEUTRAL — In Newspoll, the total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was up two points to 49%. After an outlier-looking 53% for the combined right in its late July poll, Redbridge has the right at 50% in its …
https://theconversation.com/total-support-for-right-wing-par…

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web search NEUTRAL — The Coalition's primary vote has plunged to its lowest level in Newspoll's history, while support for One Nation has reached the double digits in three separate polls. Meanwhile, Labor has thumped the…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/coalition-primary-vote-hits-record…

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web search NEUTRAL — The latest Newspoll showed the Greens increased their primary vote from 9% to 11%, while support for One Nation slipped from 9% to 8%. The poll’s margin for error was plus or minus 2.4 percentage poin…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/07/coali…

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Claim 14: “Hanson wants a figure of 130,000 (net overseas migration, or NOM).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 15: “In an exit poll of 120 voters reported by the West Australian, half indicated they’d given their first preference to One Nation.”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web sources explicitly mention an exit poll of 120 voters reported by The West Australian showing 50% first preferences for One Nation.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania and numerous smaller islands. It has a land area of 7,688,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO ) is the national security and intelligence agency of the Australian Government, responsible for protecting Australia and its citizens from espi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Security_Intelligen…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The secret ballot, also known as the Australian ballot, is a voting method in which a voter's identity in an election or a referendum is anonymous. This forestalls attempts to influence the voter by…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_ballot

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.