Gold is meant to be a ‘safe haven’ in uncertain times. Why is it crashing amid a war?

Mar 26, 2026 · 851 words · By Rand Low

Analysis Summary

Propaganda Score: 20% (confidence: 70%)
Summary: The article analyzes gold's role as a safe haven during financial crises, citing historical examples like the 2008 crisis and the 2011 downgrade. It contrasts traditional safe havens with the current situation involving an oil shock, arguing that gold's behavior has changed due to financialization and market dynamics.

“Gold has moved more like a roller coaster than a steady ship at anchor during recent geopolitical chaos and market panic.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence in archive to confirm or refute gold price volatility during geopolitical events.

“The gold price surged to an all-time high near US$5,600 per ounce in late January.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No data points or articles in archive verify gold reaching $5,600 in late January 2024.

“Gold has lost about 20% since late January, sliding sharply while major conflict broke out in the Middle East.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence in archive supports or contradicts the 20% decline claim with Middle East conflict.

“Gold is still at lofty heights by historical standards, up almost 300% over the past decade.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No historical price data from archive to verify 300% increase over past decade.

“Much of the gold price surge has been driven by financialisation through derivatives and funds tracking its price.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence in archive addresses the role of financialisation in gold price surges.

“Gold is not an untouchable storm shelter during modern crises due to its absorption of market volatility.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No data in archive examines gold's correlation with market volatility during crises.

“In a 2016 study, gold showed safe haven qualities for share markets in Australia, the US, Germany, and France.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No mention of 2016 study or safe haven properties in archive.

“During the 2008 financial crisis, gold was the most stable precious metal, avoiding catastrophic losses seen in others.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence in archive compares gold stability to other precious metals during 2008 crisis.

“Gold had similar safe haven qualities in 2011 during the US credit rating downgrade.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No data in archive about gold's performance during 2011 US credit downgrade.

“An oil shock is fundamentally different from previous crises like banking failures or credit downgrades.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence in archive compares oil shocks to previous crises like banking failures or credit downgrades.

“Commodity prices now depend more on speculative investment than real-world supply and demand.”

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“Market chaos may force large investors to sell gold to meet margin calls or cover losses.”

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“Gold's safe haven properties were more muted during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to earlier crises.”

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“Gold does not have as much essential intrinsic value as oil due to lower industrial demand.”

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“Gold has become increasingly financialised through derivatives and exchange traded funds (ETFs).”

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“Holding gold derivatives and stocks together increases exposure to common market shocks.”

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