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Germany: Betting on elections is illegal — but possible

Deutsche Welle · 🇩🇪 public Germany · · 992 words · By Ben Knight
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What to know about Germany: Betting on elections is illegal — but possible

Germany: Betting on elections is illegal — but possible April 12, 2026The multi-billion-dollar prediction market Polymarket is currently accepting bets on German regional elections later this year, even though using such sites is illegal in Germany.

Claims checked 14
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center83%
Right17%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Germany: Betting on elections is illegal — but possible April 12, 2026The multi-billion-dollar prediction market Polymarket is currently accepting bets on German regional elections later this year, even though using such sites is illegal in Germany.

Why it matters

Prediction markets, which allow people to bet anonymously on anything from military strikes to the second coming of Jesus Christ, have gathered ever more attention in recent years and caused headaches for gambling regulators around the world.

Common ground

In the US, the Justice Department last year dropped its regulatory investigation into Polymarket, one of the world's market leaders along with Kalshi, a move that has led to their expansion in the US.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-betting-on-elections-is-illegal-but-possible/a-767…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

help Insufficient Evidence 7
schedule Pending 4
info Single Source 3
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“The multi-billion-dollar prediction market Polymarket is currently accepting bets on German regional elections later this year, even though using such sites is illegal in Germany.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding Polymarket accepting bets on German regional elections or the legality status of such activity in Germany.
info
“In the US, the Justice Department last year dropped its regulatory investigation into Polymarket, one of the world's market leaders along with Kalshi, a move that has led to their expansion in the US.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence only contains general Wikipedia information about Polymarket and other unrelated topics. It does not contain any evidence regarding the US Justice Department dropping an investigation into Polymarket or Kalshi.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 1789 Capital Management, LLC is an American venture capital firm based in Palm Beach, Florida. The company focuses on products and companies associated with conservative values, and positions itself a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1789_Capital
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Shayne Coplan (born 1998) is an American entrepreneur and technologist, best known as the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market. In October …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan
info
“Both the Polymarket and Kalshi websites remain accessible in Germany, even though the country's gambling authority has declared that using them is illegal.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence only contains general Wikipedia information about Kalshi and Decision Desk HQ. It does not contain any evidence confirming the accessibility of Polymarket and Kalshi websites in Germany despite German gambling authority warnings.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Decision Desk HQ is an American website that focuses on reporting election results in the United States. The company's president is Drew McCoy. Decision Desk HQ uses an application programming interfa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_Desk_HQ
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
help
“The central gambling authority of Germany's states, the GGL, released a statement last September warning Germans against using platforms like Polymarket.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the GGL issuing a statement last September warning Germans against using platforms like Polymarket.
help
“GGL said that while the websites for Polymarket and similar platforms were accessible, sending money to them from a German IP address was not possible, and that the GGL passes on any information about illegal betting to law enforcement authorities.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the GGL's statement about website accessibility, IP restrictions, or reporting illegal betting.
help
“Polymarket currently has active betting markets on its site for the next three German state elections, in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, all of which take place in September, as well as on whether Friedrich Merz will leave office as chancellor before 2027.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found detailing active betting markets on Polymarket for the specified German state elections or the status of Friedrich Merz's chancellorship.
help
“The Berlin election appears to be the most popular of these bets, with some $3 million (€2.6 million) having been bet on the result already, even though the vote is still several months away.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the popularity or betting amounts for the Berlin election on Polymarket.
info
“Burkhard Stiller, professor of computer science and specialist in financial technologies at the University of Zurich, said that [prediction markets] attempt to convert political decisions into game theory models.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence only contains general Wikipedia information about prediction markets and does not include any statement from Burkhard Stiller regarding game theory models.
help
“Aggressive betting on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the US-Israeli attacks on Iran led to suspicions that opportunistic insiders had taken advantage of their knowledge.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding betting on Venezuelan President Maduro or US-Israeli attacks on Iran suggesting insider trading.
help
“It was also reported this week that newly-created accounts on Polymarket had made hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran hours before the deal was announced.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding newly-created Polymarket accounts profiting from betting on a US-Iran ceasefire.
schedule
“In December, CNN announced that it was partnering with Kalshi to serve as a complement to the network's reporting on elections.”
PENDING
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“Prediction markets gained some notoriety in 2024 when they apparently predicted Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election more accurately than opinion polls.”
PENDING
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“Users can determine their own questions on prediction markets, which means they are often random and can be very niche, whereas polling institutes formulate questions that attempt to create an accurate picture of what voters of specific demographics in a specific country think.”
PENDING
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“Forcing prediction market users to identify themselves online, for example, would be a step towards curbing insider trading and market manipulation.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.