Gas prices won't return to pre-war levels any time soon

Axios · 🇮🇷 public Iran · May 07, 2026 · 526 words · By Ben Geman

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What to know about Gas prices won't return to pre-war levels any time soon

If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026.

Claims checked 8

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center80%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026.

Why it matters

Why it matters: Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened right away, pump prices will likely remain higher — maybe a lot higher — than pre-war levels at least through the midterm elections.

Common ground

retail prices are tethered to global oil markets that will be in turmoil for a while.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Gas prices won't return to pre-war levels any time soon?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that He [Patrick De Haan] sees prices coming down by about a third of the wartime jump within one to three months?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/07/gas-prices-iran-war-peace-deal

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 8 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 4

help Insufficient Evidence 1

check_circle Corroborated 1

verified Verified 1

verified Verified By Reference 1

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Claim 1: “He [Patrick De Haan] sees prices coming down by about a third of the wartime jump within one to three months.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant Wikipedia entries (Doug Ford, Robert de Haan) and a general description of GasBuddy. No source confirms the specific prediction of a one-third decrease within one to three months.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Douglas Robert Ford Jr. (born November 20, 1964) is a Canadian politician and businessman who has served as the 26th premier of Ontario and as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Ford

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — GasBuddy is a technology company headquartered in Dallas, United States, that offers mobile applications and websites for tracking crowd-sourced locations and prices of gas stations and convenience st…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GasBuddy

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Robert de Haan (born 22 June 2006) is a Dutch racing driver currently competing in the Porsche Carrera Cup Deutschland and Porsche Mobil 1 Supercup with Lechner Racing and Team 75 Bernhard. He made …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_de_Haan

info

Claim 2: “oil prices fall — which they have already this week on news of progress toward a deal”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web results provide general links to oil price charts and news (CNBC, OilPrice.com) but do not contain the specific factual confirmation that prices fell this week due to progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal.

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web search NEUTRAL — Oil price charts for Brent Crude, WTI & oil futures. Energy news covering oil, petroleum, natural gas and investment advice.
https://oilprice.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — Oil Price: Get all information on the Price of Oil including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?ty…

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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Follow today's crude oil price moves and key news stories driving oil price actions, as well as developments in the broader energy sector.
https://www.cnbc.com/oil/

info

Claim 3: “Patrick De Haan of the market data and analysis firm GasBuddy [says] some price relief would come within days of the Strait of Hormuz truly reopening”

SINGLE SOURCE

While web results confirm Patrick De Haan is the Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy and has discussed the Strait of Hormuz, the specific phrasing that relief would come 'within days' is not explicitly corroborated by the provided snippets, which mention 'three to four weeks' or that a spike 'would not last long'.

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web search NEUTRAL — As pump prices for gasoline (and diesel) hit Iran War highs, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Sunday that gasoline prices should begin to decline “immediately” once shipping resumes th…
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/duffy-claims-gas-prices-wil…

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web search NEUTRAL — Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s Head of Petroleum Analysis, expects prices to drop to between $3.65 and $4.00 per gallon within three to four weeks if tensions remain cool between the U.S. and Iran.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/iran-just-reopened-hormuz-how-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, says a rise in gas prices from a potential Iranian shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz “would not last long.”
https://www.thepolitics.xyz/gas-prices-wouldnt-spike-if-iran…

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Claim 4: “"U.S. gasoline prices would ... decline in the months following an end to the war but would be unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of the year," said Smith, the S&P analyst.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found for this claim.

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Claim 5: “The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war, per AAA data.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm the AAA data: one source explicitly states the national average pushed past $4.50 on Wednesday, and another (Forbes Advisor) specifically cites the average price as $4.54 per gallon.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Hampton is a city in Bradford County, Florida, United States. It is located in North Florida. The population was 432 at the 2020 census.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hampton,_Florida

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Lawtey is a city in Bradford County, Florida, United States. The population was 636 at the 2020 US Census, down from 730 at the 2010 US Census. The City of Lawtey has received national attention and e…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawtey,_Florida

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Wednesday is an American alternative rock band formed in Asheville, North Carolina, in 2017. The band consists of Karly Hartzman (vocals, guitar), MJ Lenderman (guitar, backing vocals), Xandy Chelmis …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wednesday_(American_band)

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 6: “we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027," De Haan, the firm's head of petroleum analysis, tells me”

VERIFIED

A web search result contains a direct quote from Patrick De Haan stating: 'we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027'.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Harvey LeRoy "Lee" Atwater (February 27, 1951 – March 29, 1991) was an American political consultant and strategist for the Republican Party. He was an adviser to Republican U.S. presidents Ronald Rea…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Atwater

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Many films have featured mid- and post-credits scenes. Such scenes often include comedic gags, plot revelations, outtakes, or hints about sequels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_with_post-credit…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 7: “The consultancy Rystad Energy, in a note, argues that a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait would be an "optimistic scenario," and "meaningful volume recovery would happen in June at the earliest."”

SINGLE SOURCE

Web results confirm Rystad Energy is a legitimate energy research firm, but the specific claim regarding the '30-day phased reopening' and 'June' recovery is not present in the provided evidence snippets.

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web search NEUTRAL — Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rystad_Energy

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web search NEUTRAL — We are an independent research and energy intelligence company, equipping clients with data, insights and education that power better decision-making. As the Middle East conflict intensifies, the impl…
https://www.rystadenergy.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — Rystad Energy is an independent research and intelligence company, dedicated to equipping clients with data, insights and education that power better decision-making. Energy is the lifeblood of...
https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy

verified

Claim 8: “Rob Smith, a top fuels analyst with S&P Global Energy, said... it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant Wikipedia entries for 'Roblox', 'R.O.B.', and 'Woodside Energy'. No evidence regarding Rob Smith of S&P Global Energy was found in the provided results.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This list compares various energies in joules (J), organized by order of magnitude.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Wesfarmers Limited is an Australian conglomerate, headquartered in Perth, Western Australia. It has interests predominantly in Australia and New Zealand, operating in retail, chemical, fertiliser, ind…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesfarmers

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Woodside Energy Group Ltd (formerly Woodside Petroleum Ltd) is an Australian petroleum exploration and production company. Woodside is the operator of oil and gas production in Australia and also Aust…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodside_Energy

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.