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Gaming association says states have lost $1 billion in tax revenue due to prediction markets

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · · 487 words · By Davis Giangiulio
Regulatory Jurisdiction (CFTC vs States) Tax Revenue Loss Industry Competition (Casinos vs Prediction Markets)
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What to know about Regulatory Jurisdiction (CFTC vs States)

The American Gaming Association now estimates that states have missed out on more than $1 billion in tax revenue due to the rise of prediction markets.

Claims checked 10
Techniques found 4
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center100%
Right0%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The American Gaming Association now estimates that states have missed out on more than $1 billion in tax revenue due to the rise of prediction markets.

Why it matters

In an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box" detailing the estimate, association president and CEO Bill Miller said that the lost money has consequences for communities due to the taxes states collect on regulated gambling.

Common ground

"It's about states and tribes that are losing literally a billion dollars today in state and tribal revenue that would otherwise go to fund important community projects," he said, referencing the consequences on Native American casinos' revenues too.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Name Calling / Labeling, Doubt: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/states-have-lost-1-billion-due-to-prediction-mar…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 4 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 90% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Name Calling / Labeling 90% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing name calling / labeling helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Doubt 80% confidence
Questioning the credibility of a source or claim without providing evidence.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing doubt helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Smears 80% confidence
Using damaging allegations to undermine a person's reputation.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing smears helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 8
help Insufficient Evidence 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
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Claim 1: “the U.S. gaming industry reached a record high last year — $78.7 billion in revenue”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to verify the specific revenue figure of $78.7 billion for the U.S. gaming industry.
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Claim 2: “President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday that it is important the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets is maintained.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm Donald Trump posted on Truth Social stating it is 'critically important' that the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets is maintained.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a proposed reserve asset, funded by the United States Department of the Treasury's forfeited bitcoin, announced by United States president Donald Trump in March 2025. …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Strategic_Bitcoin_Reserve
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is a decentralized finance protocol developed by its namesake company. It was founded in 2024 by Zachary Folkman, Chase Herro, Alex Witkoff, Zach Witkoff, and Trump fami…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Liberty_Financial
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 3: “the Coalition for Prediction Markets — which represents platforms like Kalshi, Coinbase and Robinhood”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results confirm the existence of the 'Coalition for Prediction Markets' and that it represents platforms including Kalshi, Coinbase, and Robinhood.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — George Anthony Devolder Santos (born July 22, 1988) is an American former politician and convicted felon. He served as the U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district from January to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Santos
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In his role as the 47th president of the United States (January 20, 2025 – present), Donald Trump granted executive clemency to more than 1,600 individuals as of July 23, 2025, all of whom were charge…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executi…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — During the 2024 United States presidential election, the Republican Party attempted to stunt voter access, election oversight, and post-election certification. They also attempted to use strategies to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_efforts_to_di…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 4: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple cross-references from CNBC explicitly state that CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship involving customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/kalshi-traders-confident-sec…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/uber-and-lyft-report-earning…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/kalshi-traders-see-odds-risi…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “States have sued several prediction market platforms, asserting that they're violating state law”
CORROBORATED
Evidence shows states like Massachusetts and Nevada have taken action against prediction markets, and mentions of 'Racing to state court to try to shut down Polymarket' corroborate that states are suing platforms for violating state laws.
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web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · The meaning of MULTIPLE is consisting of, including, or involving more than one. How to use multiple in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/multiple
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web search NEUTRAL — MULTIPLE definition: 1. very many of the same type, or of different types: 2. a number that can be divided by a smaller…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/multiple
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web search NEUTRAL — A factor is a number that divides another number completely without any remainder, while a multiple is a product that is obtained when one number is multiplied by another number.
https://www.cuemath.com/numbers/multiples/
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Claim 6: “the CFTC has responded by suing states that it said are impeding on its regulatory power.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results explicitly state that the CFTC has filed suits against states (specifically Illinois and Connecticut) to block them from applying gambling laws to prediction markets.
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web search NEUTRAL — “Racing to state court to try to shut down Polymarket US and other prediction markets doesn’t change federal law — and states like MA and NV that have done so will miss an amazing opportunity to help …
https://www.predictionmarkets.org/polymarket-sues-massachuse…
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web search NEUTRAL — In its lawsuit, Kalshi argued that its event contracts can only be regulated by the CFTC, per the report.
https://www.pymnts.com/legal/2026/appeals-court-rules-cftc-h…
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web search NEUTRAL — Plot twist! To my knowledge, this suit by the CFTC against Illinois and a parallel action against Connecticut to block those states from applying their gambling laws to prediction markets are unpreced…
https://www.ingame.com/federal-government-sues-over-predicti…
verified
Claim 7: “The Office of Management and Budget is also reviewing a proposal for the CFTC to regulate prediction markets.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While the evidence provides general information about the OMB/OIRA and the CFTC's regulation of markets, there is no specific evidence in the provided text confirming that the OMB is currently reviewing a specific proposal for the CFTC to regulate prediction markets.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA oh-EYE-rə) is a division within the Office of Management and Budget under the Executive Office of the President. OIRA oversees the implementatio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Information_and_Regu…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) whistleblower program went into effect on July 21, 2010, when the President signed into law the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_Office_of_the_Whistleblowe…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 8: “the Commodity Futures Trading Commission views these contracts as falling within its jurisdiction to regulate swaps and derivatives.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm the CFTC's position that it has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets as commodity derivatives/event contracts.
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web search NEUTRAL — Expand the items below to learn how event contracts work, the history of prediction markets, what sets regulated markets apart from other forecasting platforms, ...
https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets
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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 20, 2026 ... Commodity Futures Trading Commission declared it would defend its exclusive jurisdiction over state gambling laws, with split court rulings ...
https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/02/predi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 17, 2026 ... ... jurisdiction over the U.S. commodity derivatives markets, including event contract markets commonly referred to as prediction markets.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9183-26
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Claim 9: “The American Gaming Association now estimates that states have missed out on more than $1 billion in tax revenue due to the rise of prediction markets.”
CORROBORATED
Three independent web search results confirm that the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates states and tribal governments have lost more than $1 billion in tax revenue due to prediction markets.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The American Gaming Association (AGA) is a United States gambling industry association. It was founded in 1994 with the goal of promoting, educating and lobbying on behalf of the gambling industry. Th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Gaming_Association
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the United States, gambling is subject to a variety of legal restrictions. In 2018, as per Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association, the United States Supreme Court declared a federal ban…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling_in_the_United_States
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Global Gaming Expo (G2E) is a gambling industry trade show presented by the American Gaming Association (AGA) and organized by Reed Exhibitions. The flagship G2E convention debuted in 2001 and is held…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Gaming_Expo
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 10: “Bill Miller is the president and CEO of the American Gaming Association.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results identify Bill Miller as the President and CEO of the AGA, specifically mentioning him in the context of the $1 billion tax revenue report and via his LinkedIn profile.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rand Miller (born January 17, 1959) is an American businessman and video game developer who is the CEO and co-founder of Cyan Worlds (originally Cyan). He and his brother Robyn Miller became famous du…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Miller
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ronald William Miller (April 17, 1933 – February 9, 2019) was an American businessman and professional American football player. He was president and CEO of The Walt Disney Company from 1980 to 1984 a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_W._Miller
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The American Gaming Association (AGA) is a United States gambling industry association. It was founded in 1994 with the goal of promoting, educating and lobbying on behalf of the gambling industry. Th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Gaming_Association
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.