Further post-budget polls have Labor down, but retaining a clear lead

The Conversation · May 20, 2026 · 767 words · By Adrian Beaumont

The article reports on various federal and state political polls in Australia following the budget, detailing primary and preference votes for Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and the Greens. It includes data from YouGov, Morgan, Resolve, and EMRS polls across national, New South Wales, and Tasmanian contexts.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/further-post-budget-polls-have-labor-down-but-retain…

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Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

28 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 18

info Single Source 3

check_circle Corroborated 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified Verified 1

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verified Verified By Reference 1

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“One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm that One Nation gained one to three points in post-budget polls.

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web search NEUTRAL — Print article. One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead…
https://theconversation.com/further-post-budget-polls-have-l…

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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has more primary support than Labor and is almost twice as popular as the Coalition, according to a major new poll conducted after the Federal Budget.
https://volknews.com/2026/05/14/one-nation-surges-past-labor…

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web search NEUTRAL — In three credible post-budget polls, One Nation is up one to three points, with its victory at the May 9 Farrer byelection probably also contributing. Labor took a hit in Freshwater and Resolve, but n…
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-poli…

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“Analyst Kevin Bonham gives Labor a 52.4–47.6 lead against the Coalition, a 0.8-point gain for the Coalition since the budget.”

VERIFIED

A specific web search result directly confirms the analyst Kevin Bonham's figures for Labor's lead over the Coalition and the 0.8-point gain.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 13 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly will be up for election, along wi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_New_South_Wales_state_ele…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election was held on 3 October 1998 to elect members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76 seat Senate were up for electio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Australian_federal_electi…

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“He gives Labor a 52.9–47.1 lead against One Nation, a 0.6-point gain for One Nation.”

DISPUTED

The claim states a 52.9–47.1 lead for Labor over One Nation. However, evidence from Kevin Bonham's analysis explicitly states Labor leading One Nation by 54.1–45.9.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023 Fadden by-election was held on 15 July 2023 to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Fadden in Queensland. The by-election was held as the resu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Fadden_by-election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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“The NSW election is in March 2027.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia explicitly confirms that a state general election is scheduled to be held on 13 March 2027 in New South Wales.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The premier of New South Wales is the head of government in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The Government of New South Wales follows the Westminster Parliamentary System, with a Parliament o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_New_South_Wales

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — New South Wales (commonly abbreviated as NSW) is a state on the east coast of Australia. It borders Queensland to the north, Victoria to the south, and South Australia to the west. Its coast borders t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The New South Wales rugby league team has represented the Australian state of New South Wales in rugby league football since the sport's beginnings there in 1907. Also known as the Blues due to their …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_rugby_league_t…

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“A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 12–19 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down two since the previous YouGov poll in late April to early May), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 23% (up two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (steady).”

SINGLE SOURCE

While YouGov is a verified polling company, the specific primary vote numbers for this specific date range (May 12-19) are not corroborated by a second independent source in the provided evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the 57th Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The Labor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Queensland_state_election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 Queensland state election was held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Queensland_state_election

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“By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition.”

CORROBORATED

The specific preference result (Labor 52-48, 2-point gain for Coalition) is mentioned in multiple web search results.

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“Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a four-point gain for One Nation.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific preference result of 53-47 for Labor over One Nation is mentioned in one source, but other sources provide different figures (e.g., 57-43), and it is not independently corroborated as the specific result for this poll.

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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead.
https://theconversation.com/further-post-budget-polls-have-l…

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web search NEUTRAL — By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by a blowout 57–43, a five-point gain for Labor. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up fi…
https://eveningreport.nz/2026/05/09/one-nation-wins-farrer-b…

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web search NEUTRAL — In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. This was despite primary votes of 31% Labor, 25% One Nation and 20% Coalition.
https://thetimes.com.au/world/47427-one-nation-surges-into-s…

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“In the last three YouGov polls, Labor has led One Nation by 52–48, 57–43 and now 53–47.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The sequence of the last three YouGov polls (52-48, 57-43, 53-47) is mentioned in one source but not corroborated by others.

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web search NEUTRAL — LAST definition: 1. (the person or thing) after everyone or everything else: 2. finally: 3. the least expected or…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/last

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web search NEUTRAL — LAST definition: occurring or coming after all others, as in time, order, or place. See examples of last used in a sentence.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/last

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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of LAST is to continue in time. How to use last in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Last.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/last

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“Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down five points to -19.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm or deny Anthony Albanese's net approval rating of -19.

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“Albanese led Angus Taylor as better PM by 41–38 (45–36 previously).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the preference of Albanese over Angus Taylor.

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“He led Pauline Hanson by 50–38 (54–35 previously).”

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“By 44–9, respondents said the budget would make them worse off rather than better off.”

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“By 38–31, they did not think “Labor’s broken promises” would ease the housing crisis for first home buyers.”

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“On immigration, by 62–10 respondents wanted a decrease rather than an increase.”

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“A national Morgan poll, conducted May 11–17 from a sample of 1,668, gave Labor 29.5% of the primary vote (down one since the May 4–10 Morgan poll), One Nation 24.5% (up 2.5), the Coalition 24% (down one), the Greens 11.5% (steady) and all Others 10.5% (down 0.5).”

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“By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 54–46, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.”

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“By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged 52.5–47.5.”

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“In additional questions from the post-budget Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, by 35–24 the budget was rated bad for “me and my household” and by 32–30 bad for the country as a whole, while respondents were split 31–31 on its effect on the health of the economy.”

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“In Newspoll, where the budget was at -25 on its economic impact and -41 on its personal impact.”

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“By 31–27, respondents in Resolve thought the budget was good for younger people, but it was thought bad for older people by 37–25 and bad for the less fortunate and disadvantaged by 37–26.”

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“The Liberals led Labor on party best for economic management by 33–23 (34–27 in April).”

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“On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led Labor by 27–24 (31–25 previously).”

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“A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted May 13–16 from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up three since the March Resolve poll), the Coalition 26% (up one), One Nation 22% (down one), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 6% (down two) and others 4% (down one).”

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“Labor’s primary vote in March of 29% had been tied for its worst result this term from Resolve, matching the February 2025 poll.”

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“Labor incumbent Chris Minns led Liberal leader Kellie Sloane as preferred premier by 38–18 (38–17 in March).”

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“A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted May 11–13 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 25% of the vote (down four since the February EMRS poll), Labor 24% (up one), One Nation 19% (up five), the Greens 14% (down one), independents 16% (up one) and others 1% (down two).”

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“Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability was up three points to +4 (38% favourable, 34% unfavourable), Labor leader Josh Willie’s was steady at -4 (21% unfavourable, 17% favourable) and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff’s was up one point to -5 (28% unfavourable, 23% favourable).”

PENDING

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“Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 44–25 (previously 40–26).”

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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

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Further post-budget polls have Labor down, but retaining a clear lead

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