“If the daily BFP is higher across the month, there’s an under-recovery because fuel importing and refining companies are effectively selling liquid fuels at a loss relative to their replacement import costs, and the Slate Levy is applied to clear this deficit over time.”

“Because that would cost up to R19.5-billion a quarter and force the state to take on unsustainable sovereign debt that would drive up borrowing costs and endanger national solvency.”

“If global oil prices continue to surge beyond June and the baseline fuel price indeed drives secondary inflation (especially food and logistics) to crisis levels, Godongwana will still have limited, but targeted structural levers to pull – probably diesel refund mechanisms to bring relief to the agriculture and mining sectors, and maybe deregulating 93 octane petrol to get some price competition in the forecourt.”

“The pivot away from consumer price subsidies and toward aggressively expanding domestic rail logistics networks – to permanently reduce commercial diesel reliance and accelerate the adoption of new energy vehicles – is coming.”

“Additionally, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has already initiated a broader review of the fuel pricing formula, which will determine how they are regulated.”