Fuel and fertiliser risks — why Middle East conflict threatens SA’s food price outlook

Mar 22, 2026 · 805 words · By Wandile Sihlobo

Fact-Check Results

“The farming community in South Africa is increasingly worried about rising input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute concerns about South African farmers' input costs.

“The issue is not that South Africa has a supply constraint, but fear about the path ahead.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to verify claims about fertiliser supply constraints or future availability concerns.

“Fertiliser prices are rising due to fears of global supply disruptions.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute the cause of fertiliser price increases.

“The conflict in the Middle East is a factor in the global fertiliser market.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to verify the influence of Middle East conflict on global fertiliser markets.

“The next major fertiliser usage period in South Africa and southern Africa’s agriculture is from October.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute the timing of fertiliser usage periods in South Africa.

“If logistics in the Middle East ease before June, upside price pressures in the fertiliser market should soften.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to verify the relationship between Middle East logistics and fertiliser price pressures.

“Farmers cannot directly pass on fertiliser costs to consumers.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute the ability of farmers to pass on fertiliser costs to consumers.

“The new crop is only planted in October 2026.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to verify claims about the planting schedule for a new crop.

“Fertiliser accounts for 35% of grain farmers’ input costs.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to confirm or refute the percentage of input costs attributed to fertiliser.

“South Africa imports roughly 80% of its annual fertiliser usage.”

❓ INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE — No evidence found in archive to verify claims about South Africa's fertiliser import dependency.

“Fuel prices and supply availability in some areas are a concern.”

❓ PENDING

“Consumer food price inflation slowed to 3.7% in February 2026.”

❓ PENDING

“Cost challenges and fewer general supply constraints exist across most of the country.”

❓ PENDING

“Fuel prices are a major upside risk for food price inflation.”

❓ PENDING

“Unusual demand ahead of April price adjustments could disrupt fuel supplies.”

❓ PENDING

“Farmers will start planting winter crops from the end of April in the Western Cape.”

❓ PENDING

“Fuel accounts for a notable share across various agricultural value chains.”

❓ PENDING

“There is a lag between price adjustments in inputs and final product prices.”

❓ PENDING

“Harvesting and planting are the periods of highest fuel use.”

❓ PENDING

“South Africa’s consumer food price inflation could moderate in 2026 due to ample supplies.”

❓ PENDING

“A favourable agricultural season and ample supplies should contain excessive price increases.”

❓ PENDING