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Experts outline an El Niño that may rewrite climate records | The Jerusalem Post

Jpost · · 886 words · By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Meteorological forecasting
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.jpost.com/science/article-896032

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

11 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
verified Verified 1
schedule Pending 1
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“The World Meteorological Organization does not officially use the term “Super El Niño,””
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results explicitly state that the WMO does not use the term 'super El Niño' because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophys…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organizat…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The latest outlooks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show water temperatures in a key central equatorial Pacific region potentially reaching about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average by autumn.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (Africanews and Ecolife) report that the ECMWF suggests ocean temperatures in the central Pacific could rise by up to 3 degrees Celsius above normal by autumn.
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web search NEUTRAL — The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested that by the northern hemisphere autumn, ocean temperatures in the central Pacific could rise by up to 3 degrees Celsius above normal. I…
https://www.africanews.com/2026/05/08/eu-climate-monitor-say…
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web search NEUTRAL — ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our …
https://www.ecmwf.int/
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web search NEUTRAL — Forecasts from the ECMWF suggest that ocean temperatures in the central Pacific near the equator could rise to as much as 3°C above average by autumn.
https://ecolife.ae/el-nino-looms-near-record-sea-temperature…
info
“Ensemble modeling indicates Niño 3.4 anomalies could exceed the +2°C threshold that defines an El Niño, with some scenarios reaching +4.5°C”
SINGLE SOURCE
While one source mentions that some ensemble members reach the +2.0°C bar, there is no specific mention of scenarios reaching +4.5°C in the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — That figure represents the chance that El Niño conditions (Niño-3.4 index at or above +0.5°C) will be present during a given three-month window.Reaching +2.0°C is a much higher bar. Some forecast ense…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/el-niño-is-fore…
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web search NEUTRAL — Understanding El Niño Strength Levels. El Niño events vary widely in power, measured by Niño 3.4 index anomalies over three-month averages. Weak episodes barely shift weather, while super ones reshape…
https://discoverwildscience.com/california-could-be-in-the-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — In the past week, a number of modeling groups that try to forecast future ENSO conditions have released forecasts that suggest that a very strong El Niño may be in the works for late 2026.
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-el-nino-cometh
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“a massive subsurface Kelvin Wave with anomalies up to +8°C at depths of roughly 50 to 250 meters is pushing heat east”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence provides general definitions of Kelvin waves and subsurface heatwaves, but does not mention a specific current event with +8°C anomalies at 50-250 meters depth.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Equatorial waves are oceanic and atmospheric waves trapped close to the equator, meaning that they decay rapidly away from the equator, but can propagate in the longitudinal and vertical directions. W…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_wave
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean, a large lake or the atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_wave
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rossby waves, also known as planetary waves, are a type of inertial wave naturally occurring in rotating fluids. They were first identified by Sweden-born American meteorologist Carl-Gustaf Arvid Ross…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“There is a 70 percent chance of El Niño developing by June, according to USA Today.”
CORROBORATED
The claim that there is a 70% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer is corroborated by 'Blue and Green Tomorrow' and implied in other reports regarding rapid development.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Children of Llullaillaco (Spanish: [(ɟ)ʝuʝajˈʝako]), also known as the Mummies of Llullaillaco, are three Inca child mummies discovered in 1999 by Johan Reinhard, Constanza Ceruti and their archae…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Llullaillaco
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Eugenio López-Chacarra Coto (born 22 March 2000) is a Spanish professional golfer and European Tour player.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenio_Chacarra
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Antônio "Nino" Schembri (Portuguese pronunciation: [ˈninu ˈʃẽbɾi]; born June 1, 1974, in Rio de Janeiro) is a Brazilian practitioner of Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) and former mixed martial artist. He is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nino_Schembri
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“The phenomenon is generally identified when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence defines El Niño generally but does not explicitly confirm the specific '2 degrees Celsius' threshold as the general identification standard; typically, the threshold is lower (e.g., 0.5°C).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“In the Americas, El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin”
CORROBORATED
Fox Weather and other sources indicate that El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, confirming the association between El Niño and fewer tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño conditions can also be associated with hurricanes taking the relatively northward path up near Hawaii, Trenberth said. El Niño is, of course, not the only influence on hurricane activity, as t…
https://www.climatecentral.org/news/struggling-el-nino-still…
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web search NEUTRAL — Accelerating 'Super' El Niño expected to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, bring stormy pattern to southern US.FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down how a brewing Super El Niño will …
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/super-el-nino-develo…
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“Climate researcher Daniel Swain anticipates record global temperatures later this year, next year, or both, noting that one of the key building blocks is now materializing even if the precise strength of this event is not yet assured, AP reported.”
VERIFIED
Web search results directly quote Daniel Swain stating he expects record global warm temperatures later this year, next year, or both due to El Niño and climate change.
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web search NEUTRAL — The excess heat brought to the surface by El Niño, combined with the planet's warming due to climate change, will lead to record-breaking global warmth, Swain said. He expects to see record global war…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-potentially-el-nino.html
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web search NEUTRAL — The hottest years on record generally occur in years when El Niño is active, because El Niño occurs when the Eastern Pacific is hotter than usual. "Its function in the global earth system is to releas…
https://www.gpb.org/news/2026/03/12/el-nino-set-take-hold-su…
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web search NEUTRAL — That same year, Swain was invited to join a group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) located in Boulder, which has two labs located at the base of the Rocky Mountains.
https://stanfordmag.org/contents/the-weather-man
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“Climate models indicate the anomaly, expected to be one of the most intense in roughly a century and a half, will show its most severe effects between the autumn of 2026 and the winter of 2027.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support the claim regarding the autumn 2026 to winter 2027 timeframe.
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“The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast 92% of average rainfall for the current season.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the Indian Meteorological Department's rainfall forecast of 92%.
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“After El Niño was last active in 2024—the warmest year on record—analyses now indicate 2026 is on track to become the planet’s second warmest year”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.