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Exclusive: New Senate bill would ban prediction markets on sports, politics and military

Axios · · 627 words · By Nathan Bomey
Legislative Action Financial Regulation Ethics and Corruption

The article reports on several proposed bills in the U.S. Senate and House aimed at banning or restricting prediction markets, particularly those involving sports, politics, and military actions. It presents arguments from lawmakers who view these markets as corruptible gambling and perspectives from market advocates who argue they provide a regulated alternative to offshore betting.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://axios.com/2026/03/26/prediction-market-ban-bill-jeff-merkley

analyticsAnalysis

20%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

11 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 7
help Insufficient Evidence 2
info Single Source 1
schedule Pending 1
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“Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is introducing the STOP Corrupt Bets Act on Thursday”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web search results confirm Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act on March 26, 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — Washington, D.C. - Today, Oregon's U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley and U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin (MD-08) introduced new legislation to crack down on prediction markets and the opportunity these marke…
https://www.merkley.senate.gov/new-merkley-raskin-legislatio…
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web search NEUTRAL — Washington, D.C. - Today, Rep. Jamie Raskin (MD-08) and Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) introduced new legislation to crack down on often-times corrupt prediction markets. Raskin and Merkley's STOP Corrup…
https://raskin.house.gov/2026/3/raskin-merkley-legislation-w…
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web search NEUTRAL — II 119th CONGRESS 2d Session S. 4226 IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES March 26, 2026 Mr. Merkley (for himself, Ms. Warren, Mr. Blumenthal, Mr. Van Hollen, and Mr. Whitehouse) introduced the followin…
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/s4226/text
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“Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) is introducing the House version of the bill.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results explicitly state that Representative Jamie Raskin is introducing the House version of the STOP Corrupt Bets Act.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections during President Donald Trump's second nonconsecu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Re…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Connecticut will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the five U.S. representatives from the State of Connecticut, one from each of the st…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Re…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jamin Ben Raskin (born December 13, 1962) is an American attorney, law professor, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Maryland's 8th congressional district since 2017. A progressive …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Raskin
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“It would ban event contracts on elections, sports, government actions and military moves.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the bill bans event contracts on elections, sports, government actions, and military moves.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In organized sports, match fixing (also known as game fixing, race fixing, throwing, rigging, hippodroming, or more generally sports fixing) is the act of playing or officiating a contest with the int…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Match_fixing
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pyxus International, Inc. is an international storage, sales, distribution company and is a publicly held independent leaf tobacco merchant. The company generates revenue primarily by selling leaf tob…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyxus_International
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. Sports bettors place their wagers either legally, through a sportsbook or bookmaker (colloquially known …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_betting
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The Merkley bill... is co-sponsored by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)”
CORROBORATED
GovTrack.us and other web search results list Senator Elizabeth Warren as a co-sponsor of S. 4226.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Elizabeth Ann Warren (née Herring; born June 22, 1949) is an American politician and former law professor who is the senior United States senator from the state of Massachusetts, serving since 2013. A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Rafael Edward Cruz (; born December 22, 1970) is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States senator from Texas since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, Cruz was the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Cruz
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Warren Gamaliel Harding (November 2, 1865 – August 2, 1923) was the 29th president of the United States, serving from 1921 until his death in 1923. A member of the Republican Party, he was one of the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_G._Harding
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“a bipartisan bill introduced earlier this week by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah).”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm a bipartisan bill was introduced by Adam Schiff and John Curtis in March 2026 regarding prediction markets.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Two 2024 United States Senate elections in California were held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There were two ballot items for…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elec…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2030 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2030, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, the winners of which will serve 6-year terms in t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2030_United_States_Senate_elec…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Senate consists of 100 members, two from each of the 50 states. This list includes all senators serving in the 119th United States Congress. As of March 2026, there are 53 Republican…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The Schiff-Curtis legislation would ban "any prediction contract that resembles a sports bet or casino-style game."”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the Schiff-Curtis legislation targets prediction contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.
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web search NEUTRAL — John Curtis introduced a bill to ban sports betting and "casino-style" games on prediction markets. Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and have been able to a…
https://www.ksl.com/article/51471890/curtis-bill-seeks-to-ba…
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web search NEUTRAL — Prediction contracts differ from traditional sports bets in that traders are not putting their money up against “the house” as betters would with a sportsbook that sets the odds for a specific outcome…
https://www.sltrib.com/sports/2026/03/24/senators-schiff-cur…
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web search NEUTRAL — Schiff (D-CA), Curtis (R-UT) — Senate, March 23. Bans CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts resembling sports bets or casino-style games. Would amend CEA to confirm Congress never intended s…
https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/client-alerts/congress…
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“Another bill introduced Wednesday by Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) — the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act — would ban senior government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (TradingView, CCN, and others) confirm the PREDICT Act was introduced by Reps. Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski to ban insider trading on prediction markets by government officials.
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web search NEUTRAL — The proposed bill, a bipartisan effort from US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski, was introduced on Tuesday and is called the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Decepti…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:7cffef83e094b…
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web search NEUTRAL — Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-AZ). Dubbed the PREDICT Act, or the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act...
https://www.casino.org/news/predict-act-latest-congressional…
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web search NEUTRAL — Representatives Adrian Smith of Nebraska and Nikki Budzinski of Illinois said their proposal, the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, or PREDICT Act, wou…
https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/predict-act-us-lawmakers-tar…
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“The Merkley bill... would explicitly note that Congress never intended to legalize prediction markets on issues like sports and politics via the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the existence of the bill is corroborated, the specific detail regarding the intent of the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936 is mentioned in the context of the legislation but not independently verified across multiple distinct reporting organizations in the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is introducing the STOP Corrupt Bets Act on Thursday, while Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) is introducing the House version of the bill. It would ban event contracts on elections…
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/26/prediction-market-ban-bill-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Explore other types of prediction markets that might still be permissible under the updated Commodity Exchange Act. Investigate means to tackle illegal activities in both foreign and domestic predicti…
https://www.quiverquant.com/news/New+Bill:+Senator+Jeff+Merk…
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web search NEUTRAL — Two additional March 26 measures, the STOP Corrupt Bets Act and the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. The CFTC is moving in parallel.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/congress-and-prediction-ma…
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“It would also require the Government Accountability Office to study prediction markets, insider trading issues and the effects on children.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding a GAO study requirement for children or insider trading within the STOP Corrupt Bets Act.
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“Kalshi said this week that it will preemptively block athletes and politicians from betting on their markets.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding Kalshi's announcement to block athletes and politicians.
schedule
“Polymarket announced "enhanced market integrity rules" banning trading on stolen confidential information or "illegal tips" and "trading by those who can influence the outcome" of an event.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.