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El Niño season predicted to start as early as next month

Phys · · 897 words · By World Meteorological Organization
Climate Science Reporting

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that an El Niño event may develop as early as May-July 2026, based on rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. The article explains that El Niño is a major climate pattern influencing global weather, and while it is not guaranteed, its potential impacts are discussed, alongside ongoing monitoring efforts by various global centers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-04-el-nio-season-early-month.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Glittering Generalities 60% confidence
Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

28 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 18
check_circle Corroborated 6
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
info Single Source 1
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“An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results cite the WMO predicting an El Niño event from mid-2026, impacting global patterns. The evidence is consistent across different search results referencing the WMO's updates.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2020–2023 La Niña event was a rare three-year, triple-dip La Niña. The impact of the event led to numerous natural disasters that were either sparked or fueled by La Niña. La Niña refers to the re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2023_La_Niña_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Souther…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May-July 2026.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results report that the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicated rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, pointing to a possible return of El Niño conditions between May and July 2026.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also inclu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change, both current and anticipated. Adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm for people, and is usually done alongsid…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — There are many effects of climate change on oceans. One of the most important is an increase in ocean temperatures. More frequent marine heatwaves are linked to this. The rising temperature contribute…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_o…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Forecasts indicate there is a "nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures" in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results report forecasts indicating a 'nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures' during the upcoming three-month period, alongside regional rainfall variations.
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web search NEUTRAL — A moderate tilt toward above-normal rainfall is forecast across Central America and parts of North America. Conversely, enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall are indicated for the southern …
https://ieu-monitoring.com/editorial/wmo-issues-global-seaso…
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web search NEUTRAL — Forecasts also indicate a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” during that period, with below-normal rainfall projected over India through July.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-likely-to-se…
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web search NEUTRAL — In the Southern Hemisphere, above‑normal temperatures are forecast over northern New Zealand and southern South America along 30°S, while most of Australia shows only a weak tilt toward above‑normal c…
https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/science/looking-ahead-wha…
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“"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web search results quote Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO's Chief of Climate Prediction, stating that climate models show strong alignment and high confidence in the onset of El Niño following neutral conditions, followed by intensification.
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web search NEUTRAL — Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” Okia said. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) assigned a 61% probability to El Niño development during May–July 2026.
https://watchers.news/epicenter/strong-el-nino-possible-from…
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web search NEUTRAL — Wilfran Moufouma OKia, WMO's Chief of Climate Prediction, said in a press release that "after a period neutral conditions, the climate models have 'now aligned strongly and there is high confidence on…
https://energynews.oedigital.com/climate-change/2026/04/24/u…
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web search NEUTRAL — While models indicate a potential strong El Nino event this year, the WMO added that forecasts made during the spring are typically less reliable, and greater confidence in the predictions will be pos…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-el-nino-foreca…
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“El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia entries explicitly define El Niño and La Niña as opposite phases related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Souther…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Niña or la Niña, may refer to: La Niña, an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, the complement of El Niño Niña (name) Niña (ship), a ship used by Christopher Columbus in 1492.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niña
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that El Niño is characterized by warming of ocean surface temperatures, specifically in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Equatorial Counter Current is an eastward flowing, wind-driven current which extends to depths of 100–150 metres (330–490 ft) in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. More often called the No…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_Counter_Current
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.”
CORROBORATED
Two web search results state that El Niño episodes typically last nine to 12 months, while one source notes they can last for years, suggesting the stated range is accurate.
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular patter…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. Episodes of El Niño and La Niña typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
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web search NEUTRAL — What is El Niño?El Niño is part of the natural climate phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).It has two opposite states: El Niño and La Niña, both of which significantly alter glob…
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508?at_bbc…
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“WMO does not use the term "super El Niño" because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the WMO is referenced in the evidence, none of the provided search results contain a statement from the WMO explicitly stating that they do not use the term 'super El Niño' because it is not part of standardized operational classifications. The evidence only confirms WMO's general role.
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web search NEUTRAL — The World Meteorological Organization is the UN's voice on weather, climate, and water resources, providing scientific insights into our atmosphere and climate behavior.
https://wmo.int/
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web search NEUTRAL — Severe Weather Information Centre The Centre enhances the availability of authoritative warnings for extreme and/or potentially high-impact weather, water and climate events from WMO Members.
https://wmo.int/zh-hans
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web search NEUTRAL — Regions WMO divides the world into six regions for the purpose of coordinating meteorological activities, known as WMO regions.
https://public.wmo.int/?ref=app
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“Thus, 2024 was the hottest year on record because of the combination of the powerful 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the gathered results to support or refute the claim that 2024 was the hottest year on record due to the combination of 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change.
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“There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the gathered results to confirm or deny the claim regarding whether climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events.
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“But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall.”
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“However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.”
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“During the Boreal summer, El Niño's warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.”
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“WMO also issues a monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode or the Indian Ocean Dipole.”
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“For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above normal nearly everywhere.”
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“The signal is especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa.”
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“Rainfall predictions show strong regional variations.”
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“WMO will issue its next WMO El Niño/La Niña Update in late May, providing more robust guidance for decision-making in the June-August period and beyond.”
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“This is based on contributions from WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction and expert consensus, facilitated by WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.”
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“Regional climate outlook forums issue seasonal predictions at a regional level—for instance the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum will issue its forecast for the South Asian southwest monsoon on 28 April.”
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“National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are responsible for national updates.”
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“Through the WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM), co-designed and tailored products such as the WCM Global HydroMet Weekly Scan and the WCM Global Seasonal Climate Outlook Briefing support United Nations and humanitarian partners in preparedness and anticipatory action.”
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“The WCM will present its Global Seasonal Climate Outlook Briefing to UN and humanitarian agencies on 29 April, covering ENSO and other climate drivers and key issues of potential concern.”
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“As of early April 2026, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is in a neutral phase, as reported by some global climate monitoring centers (BOM, JMA, NOAA), following the end of the 2025–26 La Niña.”
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“Observations indicate near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, alongside increasing subsurface heat content.”
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“Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through boreal spring and El Niño conditions to emerge during boreal summer/autumn, with some suggesting El Niño SST thresholds as early as in May-July 2026, and potentially persisting into the end of the year (BCC, C3S, DWD, IRI, NOAA, UK Met Office, information from GPCs-SP WMO LC SPMME).”
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“Such information is reflected in recent ENSO outlooks from several climate centers (BOM, CIIFEN, JMA, NOAA).”
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“This projected evolution is supported by the accumulation of warmer than average subsurface waters in the equatorial Pacific, a key precursor for El Niño development.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.