El Niño: Here’s what it means for markets and South Africa?

Daily Maverick · 🇿🇦 public South Africa · Jul 29, 2026 · 934 words · By David Lerche

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Daily briefing

What to know about El Niño: Here’s what it means for markets and South Africa?

Current projections by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) assign an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño event between October and December 2026, with the likelihood remaining above 50% through February 2027.

Claims checked 10

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center80%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

While weather forecasts are never certain, the message is becoming increasingly clear: El Niño is highly likely.

Common ground

The remaining uncertainty is not whether it will occur, but how severe it will become.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: El Niño: Here’s what it means for markets and South Africa??
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Current projections by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) assign an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño event between October and December 2026?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2026-07-29-heres-what-el-nino-means-…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 4

verified Verified By Reference 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified Verified 1

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “Current projections by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) assign an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño event between October and December 2026”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web sources, including a direct reference to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) diagnostic discussion from July 9, 2026, confirm the 81% probability of a very strong El Niño for October-December 2026.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Prediction_Center

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not unt…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the Nat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Prediction_Center

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 2: “The South African Reserve Bank’s inflation objective is now centred on 3%.”

VERIFIED

A cross-reference from Timeslive explicitly mentions the South African Reserve Bank's policy of an inflation rate of 3%.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — This is a threat to the Bank’s policy of an inflation rate of 3%, with a one percentage point tolerance band.
https://timeslive.co.za/opinion/2026-05-30-editorial-extra-p…

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Claim 3: “The country also harvested record summer maize and soybean crops”

CORROBORATED

Web search results from 'Food For Mzansi' and 'World Grain' confirm that South Africa's 2025/26 grain output rose, boosting maize and soybean stocks and creating record export potential for 2026/27.

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web search NEUTRAL — South Africa’s 2025/26 grain output rises again, says Sacota, boosting maize and soybean stocks and setting up record export potential for 2026/27.
https://www.foodformzansi.co.za/south-africa-eyes-bumper-gra…

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web search NEUTRAL — South Africa harvested an estimated 2.8 million tonnes of soybeans for 2025-26, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/22917-ag-opportunities-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Archipelago Gemstones & Locations: Prismatic Event 2026 | Prior Extinction. Tap to unmute. 2x.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgMmYcXYkYE

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Claim 4: “That drought caused South Africa’s maize production to fall by roughly one-third compared with normal levels”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence confirms the 2015/16 drought was severe and affected maize-producing regions like Limpopo, the specific figure that production fell by 'roughly one-third' is not explicitly stated in the provided evidence snippets.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel) is an ongoing case that was brought before the International Cour…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa's_genocide_case_a…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — South Africa has a developing economy considered upper-middle income. It is the largest economy in Africa as of 2026. It is the continent's most industrialized, diversified and technologically advance…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_South_Africa

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. Its nine provinces are bounded to the south by 2,798 kilometres (1,739 miles) of coastline that stre…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 5: “the likelihood remaining above 50% through February 2027”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm that NOAA's updates (specifically May 14, 2026) provide probabilities for El Niño events extending through February 2027, with one source explicitly mentioning a 97% probability of remaining active through early 2027.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1997–1998 El Niño was regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997–98_El_Niño_event

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Super El Niño events, also called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more, aff…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_El_Niño_events

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 6: “pushed food inflation to about 12%”

SINGLE SOURCE

Evidence confirms the existence of BFAP policy briefs analyzing the economic and food security implications of the 2015/16 drought, but the specific inflation figure of 12% is not present in the provided text.

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web search NEUTRAL — Feb 16, 2016 · This BFAP policy brief provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic, agricultural, and food security implications of South Africa’s most severe drought in over a century.
https://www.bfap.co.za/policy-brief-on-the-2015-16-drought/

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web search NEUTRAL — This policy brief assesses the wide-ranging impact of the 2015/2016 drought on the South African economy, focusing on commercial and smallholder farmers and consumers.
https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1364527/policy-brief-on-…

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web search NEUTRAL — In this policy brief, the impact of the drought on farmers, households and the industry as a whole is analysed with a special focus on staple foods most widely consumed by South African consumers.
https://www.bfap.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/BFAP_Droug…

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Claim 7: “The 2015/16 El Niño, one of the strongest on record.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and other climate records confirm the 2014-2016 (or 2015/16) El Niño was one of the strongest on record, with one source noting it holds the record ONI peak of +2.6°C.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “White maize currently trades at about R3,400 per tonne in South Africa”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

The claim states white maize trades at about R3,400 per tonne, but evidence from Agri Limpopo states that as of January 3, 2025, the spot price was around R6,871 per tonne, which is significantly higher.

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web search NEUTRAL — Get live SAFEX grain prices for South Africa including White Maize, Yellow Maize, Soybeans, and Sunflower trends. Real-time contract prices, daily changes, and market data.
https://farmazone.co.za/

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web search NEUTRAL — On January 3, 2025, South Africa’s white maize spot price traded around R6 871 per tonne, up over 50% from the previous year. The fundamental challenge we face is that white maize stocks are tight.
https://www.agrilimpopo.co.za/south-african-white-maize-pric…

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web search NEUTRAL — The graphs below show price developments for maize and soybeans for a selection of areas we follow. For a complete data set please refer to the latest price tracker.
https://www.competition.org.za/africanmarketobservatory-amo-…

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Claim 9: “Food accounts for about 18% of the consumer price basket”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the percentage of food in the South African consumer price basket.

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Claim 10: “Historically, El Niño has been closely associated with below-average rainfall across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm the historical correlation between strong El Niño events and below-average rainfall/drought in South Africa's summer rainfall regions.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1877–1878 El Niño event was likely the strongest El Niño on record. It contributed to widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disaste…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877–1878_El_Niño_event

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.