EL Nino could trigger extreme fires worldwide in 2026

Deutsche Welle · 🇩🇪 public Germany · May 12, 2026 · 955 words · By Sarah Steffen

climate_change Global Wildfires Public Health

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What to know about climate_change

EL Nino could trigger extreme fires worldwide in 2026 May 12, 2026The world could see a "particularly severe year" of wildfires fueled by climate change and a potentially strong El Nino weather phenomenon after a record-breaking first few months of 2026,…

Claims checked 12

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

"This year the global fire season has got off to a very fast start," said Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather researcher at Imperial College London, who is part of World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of climate scientists.

Common ground

Wildfires have scorched 50% more than the average for this time of year, and the current area burnt by wildfires globally is more than 20% higher than the previous record set since tracking began in 2012, he said.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this climate_change story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fire smoke could be 10 times more harmful to health than that from traffic emissions?
How does this story connect climate_change with Global Wildfires over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dw.com/en/el-nino-forest-fires-drought-extreme-weather-heat-climate/…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Appeal to Fear 70% confidence

Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 7

check_circle Corroborated 3

schedule Pending 2

info

Claim 1: “the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fire smoke could be 10 times more harmful to health than that from traffic emissions.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is repeated twice in the cross-references, but both are from the same source (Deutsche Welle).

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cross reference SUPPORTS — the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fire smoke could be 10 times more harmful to health than that from traffic emissions.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

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Claim 2: “Wildfires have scorched 50% more than the average for this time of year”

CORROBORATED

Two independent web search results (Malay Mail and another news source) explicitly state that wildfires have scorched 50% more than the average for this time of year.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Wildfires have scorched 50% more than the average for this time of year, and the current area burnt by wildfires globally is over 20% higher than the previous record set since tracking began in 2012, …
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The area scorched by wildfires so far is 50 per cent higher than average for this time of year, Keeping said in a press briefing. And this is before El Nino has even formed.
https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2026/05/12/the-super-el…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Global Fire Crisis Deepens as 150 Million Hectares Burn in Early 2026 Photograph: (Pexels). Story highlights. The World Meteorological Organisation expects El Niño conditions to emerge from May, incre…
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/over-150-million-hectares…

schedule

Claim 3: “The last 2023-2024 El Nino peaked as one of the five strongest on record.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 4: “making 2024 the hottest year on record”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 5: “Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean are forecast to reach or exceed 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the second half of this year”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific forecast of 3 degrees Celsius above average is found in one web search result. Other results are general Wikipedia entries or generic water temperature sites.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean are forecast to reach or exceed 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the second half of this year, she added.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Current Water Temperature in Seas, Lakes and Rivers Worldwide.Explore historical trends and forecasts for coastal cities and inland water bodies. We find every place where you can swim and show you th…
https://seatemperature.net/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Ultimately the warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

info

Claim 6: “Asian wildfires have so far burned nearly 40% more than the previous record year.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is cited twice, but both citations are from the same source (Deutsche Welle). No independent corroboration is present.

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — Asian wildfires have so far burned nearly 40% more than the previous record year.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Asian wildfires have so far burned nearly 40% more than the previous record year.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

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Claim 7: “Forecasts say that there is a 61% chance that El Nino will emerge during the May-July period and stay at least until the end of the year”

CORROBORATED

The 61% probability is reported by both Deutsche Welle and The Indian Express (citing the US Climate Prediction Center).

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — El Niño typically increases global temperatures by about a fifth of a degree Celsius, according to Madge. This is a temporary rise on top of global warming, which, regardless of its influence on the E…
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/once…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The year 2026 is being called an El Niño year. What does this mean?In April, the US Climate Prediction Center predicted a 61% chance of El Niño unfolding between May and July, and anticipates it will …
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climat…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre expects El Niño to emerge between June and August 2026 with a 62% probability, persisting through at least the end of the year. The most direct effects land first on c…
https://www.futura-sciences.com/en/weather-experts-predict-a…

+ 1 more evidence source

info

Claim 8: “the current area burnt by wildfires globally is more than 20% higher than the previous record set since tracking began in 2012”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the claim appears in one web search result, the other results for this claim are dictionary definitions of the word 'global' and do not provide factual evidence for the burn area record.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of GLOBAL is of, relating to, or involving the entire world : worldwide. How to use global in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/global

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — glob•al (glō′ bəl), adj. pertaining to the whole world; worldwide; universal: the dream of global peace. comprehensive. globular; globe-shaped. of, pertaining to, or using a terrestrial or celestial g…
https://www.wordreference.com/definition/global

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — GLOBAL meaning: 1. relating to the whole world: 2. considering or relating to all parts of a situation or subject…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/globa…

check_circle

Claim 9: “The US and Australia have also experienced unseasonably high burnt areas so far in 2026.”

CORROBORATED

The claim is supported by Deutsche Welle and a web search result discussing the 'unprecedented' heat extremes and risks in Australia and the US.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The 2026 wildfire season involves wildfires on multiple continents. Below is an ongoing list of articles on wildfires from around the world in the year 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildfires_in_2026

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — He warned that wildfire risks could worsen later this year, with El Nino increasing the likelihood of severe heat and drought in Australia, Canada, the United States and the Amazon rainforest.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-05-12/global…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — While most wildfires in the United States occur from May to November, wildfires can occur at any time of the year. Peak fire season typically occurs in August, when temperatures are at their highest a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_wildfires

+ 1 more evidence source

info

Claim 10: “A 2024 study by British medical journal The Lancet found 1.5 million deaths every year were linked to air pollution.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence consists of irrelevant search results about Microsoft Flight Simulator, the Met Gala, and Lindsey Vonn. No evidence regarding a Lancet study on air pollution was found.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Welcome to the Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 X|S & PS5 Community group! An open space for the pilots of the world to get together and share ideas, knowledge and expertise.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/flightsimulator2024/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · #MatthewMacfadyen arrives at the 2024 #MetGala.#indiewire Zenn Lim and 27 others 28 1 Joshua Yancey Still as handsome as ever keep it up man
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1006596798509286/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · In 2024, Lindsey Vonn returned to the slopes and went on to become the oldest World Cup winner in history. In February, the world watched as her Olympic run in Italy ended in a devastatin…
https://www.facebook.com/pbs/posts/in-2024-lindsey-vonn-retu…

info

Claim 11: “Record-breaking burn areas have been observed in almost all countries in West Africa and the Sahel region.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is repeated twice in the cross-references, but both citations are from the same source (Deutsche Welle). No other independent source confirms this specific regional record.

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — Record-breaking burn areas have been observed in almost all countries in West Africa and the Sahel region.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — Record-breaking burn areas have been observed in almost all countries in West Africa and the Sahel region.
https://www.dw.com/en/forest-fires-drought-heavy-rain-extrem…

info

Claim 12: “Overall, 85 million hectares [around 328,000 square miles] have burned in Africa this year, compared to the previous record of 69 million hectares”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of general Wikipedia and Britannica entries about Africa's geography and population, which do not mention wildfire statistics for 2026.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — As of 2023, about 1.5 billion people lived in Africa, which is about 18.2% of the world's population. The continent is washed by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, the Red Sea to the northeast, the A…
https://ontheworldmap.com/africa/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The majority of people in most governments in Southern, Southeast, and Central Africa, as well as in a sizable portion of the Horn of Africa and West Africa, identify as Christians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Africa, the second largest continent (after Asia), covering about one-fifth of the total land surface of Earth. The continent is bounded on the west by the Atlantic Ocean, on the north by …
https://www.britannica.com/place/Africa

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.